Burke & Chiarelli Go Pheasant Hunting - Duck Kaberle & Bergeron

Will Brian Burke Catch Patrice Bergeron
when Pheasant Hunting with Peter Chiarelli?

Joe Haggerity of CSNNE.com reports Bruins shopping Blake Wheeler ($2.2 mil cap) around the league to free up cap space for the imminent return of Marc Savard and Marco Sturm.  Coincidently, Brian Burke told us he received two solid trade offers.  There are reports about Brian Burke and Peter Chiarelli going pheasant hunting this week.  By the way, Toronto Maple Leafs plays Boston Bruins this Thursday.

When Boston offers Blake Wheeler to Toronto, I imagine Brian Burke asking about Nathan Horton, Milan Lucic, and Patrice Bergeron.  Let's hope Chiarelli is not holding a gun at the time.

Putting all kidding aside, Chiarelli might be open to discussing Patrice Bergeron.  He is over-loaded with centres: Marc Savard ($4,007 mil cap), Patrice Bergeron ($4.75 mil), David Krejci ($3.75 mil cap), and Tyler Seguin ($3.55 mil cap).  He covets Tomas Kaberle ($4.25 mil cap).  Hockey experts believe Chiarelli will be the highest bidder when Kaberle becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

Patrice Bergeron has the highest cap salary amongst Boston centres.  Next year, it goes up to $5 mil.  This is $400k less than Phil Kessel's cap salary.  This week, Burke expressed his desire for a first line centre with a $5 mil cap salary.

Tomas Kaberle's NTC (No Trade Clause) will be the only obstacle if Burke and Chiarelli reach this common ground.  Of course, some will be incredulous at the thought of Kaberle waiving his NTC to leave Ron Wilson for Boston Bruins.  As you know, I am not one of them.

We may end up with Blake Wheeler and Patrice Bergeron for Tomas Kaberle and "another Leaf" by December before Brian Burke's Christmas trade freeze starts on ninth of December.

Who is the "another Leaf"?  This deal will trigger Toronto moving two forwards from its NHL roster, one to Boston and the other to the minors.  John Mitchell ($725k cap) to Boston makes the most sense because he is a bottom six forward with cap friendly salary.  Chiarelli will try for Mike Brown ($537k cap) but Burke is not the one with the cap problem.  Maybe even Tim Brent or Mike Zigomannis.

Who goes to the minors from Toronto?  Three forwards have two-way contracts: Tyler Bozak ($3.725 cap), Mike Zigomannis ($500k cap), and Tim Brent ($575k cap).  Tyler Bozak is the only one who does not have to clear recall waivers when called up.

Who becomes the seventh defenceman when Kaberle leaves?  Choose between Matt Lashoff ($550k cap) and Keith Aulie ($733k cap) from Toronto Marlies.  Matt Lashoff is on a one-way contract and must clear recall waivers.  Remember, Toronto must eat half his cap if someone claims him.

What are the cap implications of this type of deal?  

For Boston, it frees up almost $2 mil in cap space.  Just over $2.8 mil if they assign Brad Marchand ($821k cap) to the AHL to make roster space for John Mitchell.  Assigning Michael Ryder ($4 mil cap) to the AHL brings the cap savings up to $6.8 mil.  This makes NHL roster spots available for Marc Savard and Marco Sturm, keeps Boston within the salary cap, and reduces their bonus cushion down to $500k.  Important note, assigning Tyler Seguin to the OHL instead of Marchand to the AHL brings Boston's bonus cushion down to zero.

For Toronto, they have $3.9 mil in cap space if you factor in the expected bonus payouts.  This amount is reduced by $699k if the trade is done by 1st of December or $661k if done by eighth of December (day before Brian Burke's Christmas trade freeze).  This leaves $3.2 mil cap space, enough to do another big deal after Christmas.

Enough to allow Toronto Maple Leafs fans to sleep nestled on snug in their beds, with visions of sugar-plums dancing in their heads.

For Boston Bruins updates, follow Joe Haggerty at @HackswithHaggs on twitter.

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NHL Media - Stop Mailing It In

Nick Kypreos's Report on David Backes
Was Misconstrued

Us hockey fans love to follow our hockey team and the media who cover it.  As a whole, the media has excellent hockey knowledge and sense.  It commands respect.  You must also respect their ability to generate daily media content.  Not many people can do it.  It is a grind.

So, it is bewildering to watch them react to the "elephant in the room" stories.  Many elite members of the media respond with a "no way there can be an elephant in the room" story.  They will identify the obstacles and declare it impossible to have an "elephant in the room" instead of recognizing them as challenges that managers attempt to overcome.

Some will take runs at whoever talks about the "elephant in the room" the way Ryan Hallweg runs players.  We called it "backstabbing" back in the 70s when I first followed hockey.  Backstabbing will involve deliberately (sometimes accidental) misconstruing what was said or simple wilful blindness to the things that give you a real reason to believe there is an "elephant in the room".

Joe Haggerty (CSNNE.com) and Nick Kypreos (SportsNet) are the recent victims of backstabbing.  They spend their time in the corners digging for the story and report it to us when they get one, even if it is the "elephant in the room".  Nick Kypreos reported David Backes wants to be paid like Ryan Kesler and Joe Haggerty reported Boston Bruins are interested in Keith Yandle.  In each case, someone responded with a hit from behind "Ryan Hallweg" style.

In the case of Kypreos, someone misconstrued his comments made last night on SportsNet as "David Backes wants out of St. Louis".  Kypreos went looking for the person who backstabbed him just as he would on the ice.  Good for you Nick. It tells the back-stabbers to be ready to drop their gloves if they want to go around backstabbing.

In the case of Haggerty, the back-stabber was snarky, wilfully blind, and misconstrued Haggerty's comments.  Joe responded with the class of John Bucyk and Jean Beliveau by simply correcting the misconstrued comments.  He tweeted, "Bruins like Yandle....all I know".

I do remember how John Wensink responded to someone backstabbing John Bucyk.  Unfortunately, for the back-stabber, he was not wearing a helmet.  I will let you use your imagination.  

As for Haggerty's back-stabber, interest in Keith Yandle ($1.2 mil cap salary) is not the same as interest in Mike Green ($5.25 mil cap salary).  Most teams have budget and cap space for Yandle.  Few do for Green.  Almost every NHL team had a scout at the last game played by Phoenix.  Boston had four!  We do not know how many NHL scouts attended Washington's last game.  I will be surprised if it compares to Phoenix.  You have to be wilfully blind to think Haggerty's report on Bruins' interest in Yandle is baseless.

Final words to floaters in the media..."Stop the back-stabbing and start digging for the puck!  Otherwise, be ready to drop your gloves."

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Stop The Presses - Blake Wheeler is Available

Boston is shopping 24 year old
Blake Wheeler, 6'5" 205 lbs

Boston Bruins have to make some roster moves by December because they expect Marc Savard and Marco Sturm to return from LTIR (Long Term Injury Reserve).

In order to move them from LTIR Boston must do two things first:

(1) Move two players from their 23-man NHL roster

(2) Remove $5.1 mil cap salary.

There are several rumours on how they intend to fix their cap problem.  Waiving Michael Ryder ($4 mil cap salary) is the most prominent one.

Other speculation has Boston trading Blake Wheeler ($2.2 mil cap salary) as part of resolving the problem.  On 13th of October, Joe Haggerty tweeted about Wheeler's uncertain future with Boston.  We both speculated on the chances of Boston trading him to Toronto.  As Joe put it, this option allows Boston to get something of value.

Moving both Ryder and Wheeler brings Boston within the cap plus lowers its bonus cushion usage to $1.1 mil from $2.2 mil.

With projected bonuses, Toronto has $2.93 mil cap space without using its $4.35 mil (7.5% of $58 mil cap) bonus cushion.  Acquiring Blake Wheeler can eat up a substantial amount of cap room.  $1.5 mil if Wheeler is acquired by 1st of December.  This will put Toronto in a position of having to use its bonus cushion to acquire a first line forward.  Hold this thought for later.

Boston's offer of 24-year old Blake Wheeler should tantalize Brian Burke.  Wheeler is 6'5" 205 lbs and drafted fifth overall in 2004 Entry Draft.  He was Phoenix's first round draft pick but never signed with them.  Instead, he signed with Boston in June 2008 as a free agent after finishing his university hockey career.

He was Phil Kessel's teammate on Boston in the 2008-2009 season and Team USA at the World Juniors.

Blake Wheeler has good NHL scoring stats as shown below.  He shows good promise given what he has done before the age of 24.  He is the same age as Kris Versteeg, Tyler Bozak, and Nikolai Kulemin.  Boston is trading him because they are set on their top six forwards with Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, Nathan Horton, David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Tyler Sequin.

Season	Age	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	S	S%
2008-09	22	Boston Bruins	81	21	24	45	36	46	16	3	2	3	150	14.0
2009-10	23	Boston Bruins	82	18	20	38	-4	53	14	3	1	2	159	11.3
2010-11	24	Boston Bruins	6	0	2	2	0	4	0	0	0		11	0.0
Career		3 Seasons	169	39	46	85	32	103	30	6	3	5	320	12.2

By now, you must have reached the conclusion it is a good idea to add Blake Wheeler to a team with small forwards who are not scoring goals.

This brings us back to Toronto's cap.  Adding him in December brings Toronto's cap room down to $1.43 from $2.93 excluding the $4.35 mil bonus cushion.  Removing a roster player so the NHL roster has 22 players can lessen the impact.  But, who do you choose?  

Tyler Bozak is the only forward with a two-way contract which allows sending/recalling him to/from the minors without going through waivers.  However, he will have to be in one awful slump to consider him for assignment.  But, if this was the case, it will save $1.22 mil in cap salary.  Plenty of cap room to acquire an elite player after Christmas without dipping into the bonus cushion.

Waiving John Mitchell at this time can save $506k in cap salary.  But, he has to clear recall waivers to be called up.  This leaves enough cap room to acquire an elite player by the trade deadline.

In all likelihood, Brian Burke will only acquire Blake Wheeler if he believes he has a big deal in the works, where he has an idea of who is leaving Toronto's roster.  Otherwise, acquiring Wheeler dramatically reduces his trade options.

Oh yes, I almost forgot.  What will Boston want for Blake Wheeler?  It is unlikely they want an NHL roster player.  They are trying to keep their carry-over bonus penalty low.  Chiarelli will want a good draft pick or a prospect.  My guess, Luca Caputti and a late round draft pick.  But, it is only a guess.

Afterthoughts

Today, on The Bill Watters Show, Brian Burke revealed he has two solid trade offers from other teams.  Toronto also has a scout at tonight's game between Montreal and Phoenix.

You can get updates on Blake Wheeler and Boston Bruins by follow Joe Haggerty @HackswithHaggs on twitter.

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Post Script

Good update from Joe Haggerty at CSNNE.com
http://www.csnne.com/10/26/10/Haggerty-Cap-strapped-Bruins-preparing-t/v1_landing_bruins.html?blockID=338905&feedID=3352.

Also, good video link by Mark Easson at mynhltraderumors.com
 http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2010/10/26/drew-doughty-to-ir-boston-bruins-toronto-maple-leafs-rumors-kevin-bieksa/comment-page-1/#comment-11062

Brian Burke Lets On He Wants Brad Richards

Is Brad Richards the Next Piece

to Brian Burke's Puzzle?

On Wednesday, 20th of October, Andrew Krystal interviewed Brian Burke on Fan590 Toronto.  You can listen to it at this link http://www.fan590.com/media.jsp?content=20101020_082955_4888.

When you listen to the interview, you will not hear Brian Burke say he wants Brad Richards because NHL will reprimand him for tampering.  In the past, Brian Burke has forewarned us several times he will only respond in one of two ways when asked about players on other teams:

(1) We are not in any trade talks for this player;

(2) NHL tampering rules prevent me from commenting on this player.

True to his words, he has ruled out specific players on other teams as trade possibilities.

This did not happen in Andrew Krystal's interview when asked about Brad Richards. He gave the "NHL tampering rules prevent me from commenting on this player" response. For some people, they will only be satisfied with Brian Burke explicitly stating he wants Brad Richards.  Which we know is impossible for him to give.

In my opinion, Brian Burke is now going after Brad Richards as hard as possible.  If he succeeds, the deal will be as big and controversial as the Phil Kessel deal.  Allow me to outline why Brian Burke made Brad Richards his top priority.  In addition, let's explore the obstacles to the trade and how Brian Burke can overcome them.

Why Brad Richards is Brian Burke's Top Priority?

Brad Richards was fourth in assists and fifth in scoring points amongst NHL centres last season.  An elite NHL centre.  He can be available after Christmas because of the ownership issue for Dallas Stars.  This will be a great addition to Toronto's first line to compliment Phil Kessel's play and setup his goal scoring.  Richards' play-making will also boost Dion Phaneuf's scoring opportunities.

Adding Brad Richards is a significant upgrade to what Toronto has presently.  Last year, at age 23, rookie Tyler Bozak replaced Matt Stajan on the first line.  His stats are comparable to Matt Stajan's if you pro-rate his numbers.  Both he and Matt were good enough to rank 20th to 25th for assists and scoring points amongst NHL centres.  In other words, they provided scoring production good enough to be a first line centre for a non-playoff team.

At the beginning of the season, Ron Wilson predicted Tyler Bozak, at age 24, gets 65 to 70 scoring points and 45 to 50 assists.  If you go by last season stats, available at Hockey-Reference.com, you will see this is just good enough to be the 16th best scoring centre.

Ultimately, Toronto Maple Leafs want an elite play-making centre to get the most goal scoring from Phil Kessel, an emerging elite goal scorer.  Brad Richards may be the only option available this season.

Brad Richards has a No Trade Clause contract

Although it looks like Brad Richards will have to change teams at the end of the season because he becomes an unrestricted free agent, reports indicate he wants to minimize the disruption and inconvenience to his family.  He will not be a "rental player" to another team or accept a trade before Christmas.  Brad Richards will get his way because he has a no trade clause in his $7.8 mil cap salary contract.

However, do not jump to the conclusion he does not want a trade.  Remember, he wants to minimize the disruption and inconvenience to his family.  A trade to a team of his choosing after Christmas that includes a negotiated contract extension will be less disruptive to his family than waiting until 1st of July to sign a free agent contract.  His family will only have a few weeks to transition to a new city if he goes the free agent route.  He can give his family months instead of weeks if he approves a trade involving a contract extension.

Who has Cap Space for Brad Richards' $7.8 mil Cap Salary?

At present, only teams without money have cap space for Brad Richards.  In other words, nobody with money has cap space for his contract.

This changes as the season progresses.  Toronto Maple Leafs and Los Angeles Kings will have cap space for Brad Richards.  The reason for this is Dallas spends $42k of Brad Richards' cap salary each day they keep him on their NHL roster.  By 1st of January, Dallas will spend $3.648 mil of Brad Richards' $7.8 mil cap salary with $4.152 remaining.  

Toronto will be able to fit $4.152 into their cap.  This amount increases if they send players back to Dallas.  Brian Burke may want to move the trade back a few days or weeks in order to leave some cap room for another deal.

Why Would Brad Richards Want to Come to Toronto?

Playing with Phil Kessel might sway Brad Richards to Toronto.  This will be his chance as an elite play-making centre to play with an emerging elite goal scorer.  Los Angeles Kings is the only other team with both cap space and money to trade for Brad Richards.  Other teams with money can only make a play for Brad Richards if they involve Toronto or Los Angeles in a three-way trade.  For example, Montreal Canadiens will have to move a player such as Tomas Plekanec to make cap space for Brad Richards. 

What Would Dallas Want for Brad Richards?

Joe Nieuwendyk is in his second year as Manager of Dallas Stars.  The Brad Richards and team ownership situation has disrupted his work.

I expect Joe Nieuwendyk wants good young players with low salaries under control for several years in order to avoid experiencing additional disruptions caused by free agency.  The Toronto players who fit this criteria are Luke Schenn (age 20, $875k salary - $2.975 mil cap salary), Tyler Bozak (age 24, $875k salary - $3.725 mil cap salary), Nikolai Kulemin (age 24, $2.35 salary/cap salary), and Kris Versteeg (age 24, $3.083 mil salary/cap salary).  Interesting note, when Joe Nieuwendyk worked for Toronto Maple Leafs two years ago, he was the catalyst for Toronto signing free agent Tyler Bozak.  Brian Burke gave him all the credit.

For cap management purposes, Brian Burke does need to move one of Tyler Bozak and Luke Schenn in this trade.  I do believe he is willing to pay a high price to acquire Brad Richards.  But, I will be surprised he includes draft picks.  

Keeping draft picks allows him to pursue Restricted Free Agents in the off-season.  Even with Brad Richards, Toronto Maple Leafs will have cap space to pursue Zach Parise or Shea Weber.  Sending both Luke Schenn and Tyler Bozak to Dallas ensures it.

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Post Script 26-Oct-2010

Great article from James Mirtle on Leafs cap situation.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/making-sense-of-the-leafs-cap-situation/article1754464/

It expands on player bonuses.  In short, we should expect only $850k bonus payout each for Tyler Bozak and Luke Schenn.  Each of them are a cap hit of $1.725 mil.

Bonuses will total $1.87 mil.  As Mirtle concludes, Leafs have $3.96 mil in cap space before their $4.35 mil bonus cushion.

Also, bonus cushion is calculated on cap space after $1.4 mil carry-over bonus penalty has been deducted.  In other words, 7.5% of $58 mil instead of $59.4 mil.  This brings Toronto's bonus cushion to $4.35 mil.

Rating the Phil Kessel Trade One Year Later

Phil Kessel - Bargain at $5.4 mil Cap Salary

Let me start by saying the Phil Kessel trade between Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins to be a great deal for Toronto.  I have always held this belief from the day the trade was announced.  I do acknowledge a high price was paid with two first round and one second round draft picks.  But, it was worth it.

Like others, I assessed the trade by evaluating the two types assets involved in the trade: (1) Players; and (2) Draft Picks.  Lately, I have gained an appreciation for an additional asset involved in the trade but rarely mentioned.

At the start, I came to my conclusion with two premises.  First, Phil Kessel is a potential to be a 50-goal scorer.  Second, it is hard to get 50-goal scorers.

When Boston drafted Tyler Seguin with the first of two first round draft picsk from Toronto, I concluded comparing Phil Kessel to Tyler Seguin is not the best way to evaluate the trade.  The trade's success for Toronto depends on Brian Burke's ability to do another transaction similar to this one.  He must keep his salary cap clean, have draft picks available, and hope another team has problems resigning its elite player.

Phil Kessel is a Potential 50 Goal Scorer.  This, I believed from the very day he was traded to Toronto.  He was drafted fifth overall in the 2006 Entry draft and scored 36 goals at the age of 21.  Typically, goal scorers have their best years between the ages of 24 and 26.  You can expect a 50 goal scorer to have his first 50-goal season before the age of 27.  You have to look back 15 years to find  an NHL player who became a 50 goal scorers at a later age.

Too illustrate the significance of his 36 goals at age 21, I have created table, shown below, listing all the 50-goal scorers since the lockout season with their goals scored at age 21 with some exceptions.  Ilya Kovalchuk's goals are from age 20 because he was 21 during the lockout season and Steven Stamkos' goals are from age 19 because he just turned 20.

Goals at Age 21 - Phil Kessel and Post Lockout 50-Goal Scorers

Player	Goals At 21	Drafted	Draft Year	Cap Salary 2009/2010	Comments
Steven Stamkos	51*	1st	2008	$3.72 mil	Goals at age 19
Alex Ovechkin	46	1st	2004	$9.53 mil	52 Goals at age 20
Ilya Kovalchuk	41*	1st	2001	$6.38 mil	Goals at age 20
Dany Heatley	41	2nd	2000	$7.50 mil	50 Goals at age 25
Phil Kessel	36	5th	2006	$5.40 mil	Now age 23
Sydney Crosby	33	1st	2005	$8.70 mil	50 Goals at age 22
Jaromir Jagr	32	5th	1990	$7.00 mil	Now in KHL age 39
Jarome Iginla	28	11th	1995	$7.00 mil	52 Goals at age 24
Vincent Lecavalier	20	1st	1998	$7.72 mil	52 Goals at age 26
Jonathon Cheechoo	21*	29th	1998	$3.00 mil	In AHL at age 21

As the table shows, at age 21, he compares very well to the 50 goal scorers.  A few weeks ago, Toronto Maple Leafs coach Ron Wilson did predict Phil Kessel will score over 40 goals this season at age 23.  We have many real reasons to believe Phil Kessel will prove Wilson correct.  This includes his fast start of five goals in his first five games played.

A player is on the verge of becoming a 50 scoring when he scores 40 goals before the age of 24.  Below is a table slotting Phil Kessel with the other potential 50 goal scorers.

Goals at Age 21 - Potential 50-Goal Scorers 

Player	Goals At 21	Drafted	Draft Year	Cap Salary 2009/2010	Age at Start of 2010-2011
Evgeni Malkin	47	2nd	2004	$8.70 mil	24
Phil Kessel	36	5th	2006	$5.40 mil	23
Rick Nash	31	1st	2002	$7.80 mil	26
Eric Staal	30	2nd	2003	$8.25 mil	25
Thomas Vanek	25	5th	2003	$7.14 mil	26

50 Goal Scorers are Hard to Get.  You typically acquire them with a first round draft pick.  You have just over a 70% chance with the first overall pick.  Anything less and your odds dropp drastically.  In fact, without a top five pick, getting a 50-goal scorer from the draft is virtually hopeless.

Last season, only three players (Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, and Sydney Crosby) scored 50 goals.  Two of them did it for the first time!  Since the lockout, only nine players have been 50-goals scorers.  Three of them (Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Jarome Iginla) were traded before the age of 27.  Most notably, two of them (Dany Heatley and Ilya Kovalchuk) were traded from Atlanta Thrashers.

In short, if you want a 50-goal scorer, you should hope your team or Atlanta Thrashers have one of the top two picks in the Entry Draft.

To reiterate the point, only one NHL franchise has drafted more than three 50-goal scorers in its franchise history.  Pittsburgh Penguins has drafted seven 50-goal scorers with their first round draft picks.  The next best is three 50-goal scorers by Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, Winnipeg Jets, and Minnesota North Stars/Dallas Stars.  Interestingly, Montreal Canadiens only drafted two 50-goal scorers with its first round draft picks in spite of being notorious for acquiring first round draft picks from poor performing teams.  Edmonton Oilers never drafted a 50-goal scorer with its first round draft picks.

First round draft picks are money in the bank only when you finish dead last.  As shown in the first table, most 50 goal scorers are drafted first overall.  It is almost impossible to draft a 50 goal scorer without selecting the first forward in the entry draft.  A franchise cannot plan on having these coveted draft picks without being god awful and risk going defunct or trading most of its self-respect. 

Phil Kessel's Contract is the Hidden Asset in the Trade.  Phil Kessel was immediately signed to a $5.4 million cap salary five-year contract when traded to Toronto.  It is a bargain when you compare it to the 50 goal scorers and potential 50 goal scorers.  This type of players usually costs at least $7 mil in cap salary.

Steven Stamkos is the only player with a lower cap salary.  He is on an entry level contract which has a cap salary limit and expires at the end of this season.  Expect him to get at least $7 mil on his next contract.  Perhaps more than Ovechkin's $9.53 if other teams pursue this RFA.  He may even receive a max cap offer of $11.88 mil.  Max cap is the maximum amount a player can be paid which is 20% of a team's salary cap $59.4 mil.

Phil Kessel's $5.4 mil cap salary is a significant reason why Toronto currently has $4.7 mil cap space and will be well positioned to pursue elite RFAs (Restricted Free Agents) at the end of this season.  Steven Stamkos, Shea Weber, Jeff Carter, Zach Parise, and Brent Seabrook are some of the elite RFA who do not have their contracts extended.

As said at the start, the full success of this trade depends on doing another deal like it.  Adding another elite player to play with Phil Kessel will make Toronto Maple Leafs a force to contend with for many years.  Brian Burke has prepared Toronto to follow through with this pursuit by having the cap space and draft picks in place for off-season.  All without trading an ounce of self-respect.

Ecklund, Spectorshockey, and mynhltraderumors will have a field day with RFA rumours. Toronto's Cap Nation will follow them with great interest.  This is much better than joining Tank Nation to cheer your team to last place.

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