Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching The Big Fish

Brian Burke has done 3 of the last 18
"Big Fish" Trades in the NHL

Many of you are anxious to learn what Brian Burke will do for his next trade.  Three weeks age, we covered the various types of trades Brian Burke does in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1.  Two weeks ago, we listed the various players on the 50 Active Player roster who might go in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects.

Today, we cover "Catching the Big Fish".  It should give you interesting insight into what might happen and why.  We do this by reviewing all of the "Big Fish" trades since 2005 when the current CBA came into effect.

By "Big Fish", we are talking about top players in their prime and top prospects who have yet to enter their prime.  Ages 24 to 26 are prime years for forwards and 26 to 30 for defencemen and goaltenders.  Top prospects are players who were top five selections in their draft year.  We have taken liberties to include some trades that just miss on the criteria but we still consider to be "Big Fish" trades such as Chris Pronger (at age 31), Brad Richards (at age 27), Mike Ribeiro (2nd liner in Montreal), and two prospects selected 6th overall in their draft year.

You can see the trades listed in the table below.  Along with the date of the trade, we characterize what motivated the team to give up the "Big Fish".  We also include each players age in brackets.  Following the age, is the draft position for any player originally drafted in the first round of their Entry Draft.

Big Fish Trades Since 2005
Date	To	Big Fish	From	Price Paid
3-Aug-05 Tank 1st 2006 Erik Johnson	EDM	Chris Pronger (30) 2nd	STL	Eric Brewer (26) 5th Jeff Woywitka (22) 27th Doug Lynch
23-Aug-05 Salvage Depth I. Kovalchuk	OTT	Dany Heatley (24) 2nd	ATL	Marian Hossa (27) 12th Greg De Vries (33)
30-Nov-05 Tank 5th 2006 Phil Kessel	SJ	Joe Thornton (26) 1st	BOS	Marco Sturm (27) 21st Brad Stuart (26) 3rd Wayne Primeau (29) 17th
23-Jun-06	VAN	Roberto Luongo (27) 4th Lukas Krajicek (23) 24th 6th 2006 (Sergei Shirikov)	FLA	Todd Bertuzzi (31) 23rd Bryan Allen (26) 4th Alex Auld (26)
3-Jul-06 Salvage	ANA	Chris Pronger (31) 2nd	EDM	Joffrey Lupul (23) 7th Ladislav Smid (20) 9th 1st 2007 (traded) 1st 2008 (Jordan Eberle) 2nd 2008 (traded)
29-Sep-06 Salvage Playoff Run	LA	Jack Johnson (20) 3rd Oleg Teverdosky (29) 2nd	CAR	Tim Gleason (24) 23rd Eric Belanger (29)
30-Sep-06 Depth T. Plekanec	DAL	Mike Ribeiro (26)	MTL	Janne Niinamaa (31)
15-Feb-07 Playoff Run	PHA	Scottie Upshall (23) 6th Ryan Parent (19) 18th 1st 2007 (traded) 3rd 2007 (traded)	NSH	Peter Forsberg (33) 6th
18-Jun-07 Budget	PHA	Scottie Hartnell (25) 6th Kimmo Timmanen (32)	NSH	1st 2007 (Jonathon Blum)
26-Feb-08 Tank 1st 2008 S. Stamkos	DAL	Brad Richards (27) Johan Holmqvist (29)	TB	Jussi Jokinen (24) Jeff Halpern (31) Mike Smith (25) 4th 2009 (traded)
26-Feb-08 Playoff Run	CHI	Andrew Ladd (22) 4th	CAR	Tuomo Ruuto (24) 9th
26-Feb-08 Time Machine	SJ	Brian Campbell (28) 7th 2008 (Drew Daniels)	BUF	Steve Bernier (22) 16th 1st 2008 (Tyler Ennis)
20-Jun-08 Tank 5th 2009 B. Schenn	CGY	Mike Cammalleri (25) 2nd 2008 (Mitch Wahl)	LA	1st 2008 (traded) 2nd 2009 (traded)
27-Jun-09 Salvage	CGY	Jay Bouwmeester (26) 3rd	FLA	Jordan Leopald (29) 3rd 2009 (Josh Birkholz)
18-Sep-09 Cap	TOR	Phil Kessel (22) 5th	BOS	1st 2010 (Tyler Seguin) 2nd 2010 (Jared Knight) 1st 2011
31-Jan-10 Cap	TOR	Dion Phaneuf (24) 9th Fred Sjostrom (26) 11th Keith Aulie (20)	CGY	Matt Stajan (26) Niklas Hagman (30) Ian White (26) Jamal Mayers (35)
4-Feb-10 Salvage	NJ	Ilya Kovalchuk (26) 1st Anssi Salmela (25) 2nd 2010 (Jonathon Merrill)	ATL	Niclas Bergfors (22) 23rd Johnny Odua (28) Patrice Cormier (19) 1st 2010 (traded) 2nd 2010 (traded)
22-Jun-10	BOS	Nathan Horton (25) 5th Greg Campbell (27)	FLA	Dennis Wideman (27) 1st 2010 (traded) 3rd 2011

Typically there are at least three "Big Fish" trades each year.  So far, there has only been one this season.  Although "Cap" trades haven dominated the past year, the majority of trades have been either "Salvage" or "Tank" trades.

By "Salvage" trade, we refer to a situation where either a player does not want to remain with the team or the team has given up on the player.  By "Tank" trade, we refer to when a team literally gives away a top player with the intent of finishing low enough to get a lottery pick.  There can be a "Budget" element to a "Tank" trade.  But, never doubt the trading team having its eye on the prize (lottery pick).

The "Tank" trades are most striking because it involved St. Louis trading Chris Pronger to tank to the 1st pick to draft Erick Johnson at the end of the season.  Boston traded Joe Thornton to tank to 5th last to draft Phil Kessel.  Tampa Bay traded Brad Richards to tank to last overall to draft Steven Stamkos.  Los Angeles traded Mike Cammalleri to tank to 5th last to draft Brayden Schenn.

Whenever a 1st round draft pick player is traded, the trading team usually expects either a 1st round draft pick player or 1st round draft pick in return.  Dion Phaneuf and Jay Bouwmeester trades are two exceptions.

As a result, expect Nazem Kadri, Luke Schenn, Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf, and 1st round draft picks to be in play when Toronto has "Big Fish" trade talks with any team.  To avoid giving up these players, Toronto will have to target teams wanting to do a "Depth" trade with a 2nd liner because they have a top prospect waiting to take over.  Mike Komisarek, Colby Armstrong, Fred Sjostrom, and Matt Lashoff are other 1st round draft pick players who can be secondary players in a deal.

"Salvage" trade scenarios are brewing for players such as Shea Weber and Zach Parise.  However, they are more likely to be summer trades if they materialize.  Only one of the past five "Salvage" trades occurred at trade deadline.  The other four occurred in the off-season.

Teams wanting to do a "Tank" trade might be Toronto's wild card.  Such a team will be motivated to trade with Toronto because it can help lift Toronto out of a lottery pick position while they drop into one.  Edmonton, Ottawa, Florida, St. Louis, Buffalo, and Columbus are candidates for such a trade.  Of course, this list can grow as we approach trade deadline.  Ottawa trading Jason Spezza or Columbus trading Rick Nash would be similar to Boston "Tank" trading Joe Thornton.

Ultimately, it is up to the team holding the "Big Fish" to determine if and when the trade occurs.  All Brian Burke can do is be prepared when the opportunity arises.  In other words, have the cap space and trading assets available to capitalize on the opportunity.  It has payed off for him in the past with a Stanley Cup.

In the next two weeks, we will cover "Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the Time Machine Trade" plus "The Winnipeg Curse".

In Case You Missed It

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

After Thoughts

It is interesting how Boston Bruins recovered from the Joe Thornton "Tank" trade with free agent signings Tim Thomas, Zdano Charo, and Marc Savard.

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

Post Script 28-Feb-2011

Brian Burke has "Time Machine" traded Tomas Kaberle, Francois Beauchemin, and Kris Versteeg to acquire Boston's 2011 1st and conditional 2nd, Philadelphia's 2011 1st, Joe Colborne (20 years old, drafted 16th overall 2008), Jake Gardiner (20 years old, drafted 17th overall 2008), and Joffrey Lupul (27 years old, drafted 7th overall 2002).

He clearly has loaded up with assets which can be used in "Catching the Big Fish" trades.

Tweet



Follow @Leafschatter 

How Brian Burke Gets Steven Stamkos

Steven Stamkos and Rick Nash

are the Only Players in NHL History

to Win the Goal Scoring Title at 19 Years Old

Other than sending an initial contract proposal, Tampa Bay Lightning does not appear to have made any significant progress in negotiating a contract extension with soon to be Restricted Free Agent Steven Stamkos.

Tampa Tribune published the last media report No Progress on Stamkos Negotiations on 10th of January.  Steve Yzerman and Tampa Bay Lightning may have a "Phil Kessel" situation on their hands.

Steve Yzerman wants to sign Steven Stamkos for Jonathon Toews money instead of Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, or Vincent Lecavalier money.  Leafschatter published an analysis and review of the situation Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed By Yzerman - Again!  It primarily focused on comparing Steven Stamkos to Jonathon Toews, Vincent Lecavalier, Sidney Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin when they were 19 and 20 year olds plus in the season they signed their contract extension.  In addition, the analysis included the best performances from other 19 and 20-year-olds in NHL history.

Today, we further explore how Steven Stamkos compares to the best 20-year-olds ever and expand into "blank ink" comparisons.  By "blank ink", we mean league-leading performances.  You will see it is ridiculous to suggest Steven Stamkos is comparable to Jonathon Toews instead of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin and might explain why Steve Yzerman had not received a counter-proposal from Stamkos's agent.

You will also see how vulnerable Tampa is to losing Steven Stamkos if they allow him to explore free agency as a restricted free agent and how Toronto's Brian Burke can make a qualifying offer impossible for Tampa to match.  We will also explore the likelihood of Burke making this offer.

Comparing Steven Stamkos to the Best 20-Year-Old in NHL History

Liseted below are the best scoring seasons by 20-year-olds in NHL history with 20-year-old Steven Stamkos's statistics from this season.  It includes Sidney Crosby's season where he missed 29 games due to injury.  You can find the best 19-year-olds in NHL history in Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed By Yzerman - Again!

Best Scoring Seasons by 20 Year Olds
Rank	Player	Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Wayne Gretzky	1981-82	Edm	80	92	120	212
2	Mario Lemieux	1985-86	Pit	79	48	93	141
3	Denis Savard	1981-82	Chi	80	32	87	119
4	Alex Ovechkin	2005-06	Was	81	52	54	106
5	Pierre Turgeon	1989-90	Buf	80	40	66	106
6	Joe Sakic	1989-90	Que	80	39	63	102
7	Dale Hawerchuk	1983-84	Wpg	80	37	65	102
8	Jimmy Carson	1988-89	Edm	80	49	51	100
9	Eric Lindros	1993-94	Pha	65	44	53	97
	Sidney Crosby	2007-08	Pit	53	24	48	72
	Steven Stamkos	2010-11	TB	49	37	29	66

Stamkos is trending to score 110 points this season which ranks 4th in this list.  He ranked 6th all-time in the 19-year-old list while Crosby ranked 2nd.  Wayne Gretzky is the leader in both lists without a close 2nd.  Only three players in both lists have black ink (signifying NHL season leader) for goals, assists, or points: Wayne Gretzky, Sidney Crosby, and Steven Stamkos.  Only Rick Nash and Ilya Kovalchuk led the NHL in goal scoring at ages 19 and 20 but lacked the point product for these lists.

Steven Stamkos led the NHL in goals scored at age 19 and is leading this season at age 20 compelling us to compare him to the best goal scorers at age 20 in NHL history.

Most Goals Scored in a Season by 20 Year Olds
Rank	Player	Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Wayne Gretzky	1981-82	Edm	80	92	120	212
2	Craig Simpson	1987-88	Edm	80	56	34	90
3	Mike Bossy	1977-78	NYI	73	53	38	91
4	Alex Ovechkin	2005-06	Was	81	52	54	106
5	Jimmy Carson	1988-89	Edm	80	49	51	100
6	Mario Lemieux	1985-86	Pit	79	48	93	141
7	Luc Robitaille	1986-87	LA	79	45	39	84
8	Eric Lindros	1993-94	Pha	65	44	53	97
9	Richard Martin	1971-72	Buf	73	44	30	74
10	Barry Pederson	1981-82	Bos	80	44	48	92
	Steven Stamkos	2010-11	TB	49	37	29	66

Steven Stamkos is on a pace to score 61 goals ranking him 2nd on the list after Wayne Gretzky.  His league leading 51 goals from last season is 4th best for all 19 year-olds.  Please notice, only Steven Stamkos and Wayne Gretzky are the only 19 and 20-year-old top goal scorers to lead the NHL in goals scored at this young age.

Black Ink and MVP Comparisons

Steven Stamkos's exclusive 19 and 20-year-old "blank ink" company of Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby invites a greater exploration of how young were the top players when they accomplished NHL Goal Scoring Leadership and received Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) honours.

Below, you see the youngest players to be goal-scoring leaders in NHL history.

Earliest NHL Goal Scoring Leader
Rank	Player	Age	Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Steven Stamkos	19	2009-10	TB	82	51	44	95
1	Rick Nash	19	2003-04	Clb	80	41	16	57
3	Wayne Gretzky	20	1981-82	Edm	80	92	120	212
3	Ilya Kovalchuk	20	2003-04	Atl	81	41	46	87
3	Bobby Hull	20	1959-60	Chi	70	39	42	81
3	Charlie Conacher	20	1930-31	Tor	37	31	12	43
7	Mike Bossy	21	1978-79	NYI	80	69	57	126

Only Rick Nash accompanies Steven Stamkos for the youngest player to be an NHL season goal-scoring leader.  Wayne Gretzky first achieved this status at age 20 with Ilya Kovalchuk, Bobby Hull, and Charlie Conacher.  Alex Ovechkin did not achieve this status until age 22.  The year Washington extended his contract by 13 years for $9.538 mil.

MVP - Hart Memorial Trophy Honours

Steven Stamkos has yet to receive MVP (Hart Memorial Trophy) honours.  However, he will be the 3rd youngest player in NHL history to receive it if he wins it this season.  Only Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby will have won it at a younger age.

Earliest Hart Memorial (MVP) Trophy Winner
Rank	Player	Age	Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Wayne Gretzky	18	1979-80	Edm	79	51	86	137
2	Sidney Crosby	19	2006-07	Pit	79	36	84	120
3	Bobby Orr	21	1969-70	Bos	76	33	87	120
3	Eric Lindros	21	1994-95	Pha	46	29	41	70
5	Mario Lemieux	22	1987-88	Pit	77	70	98	168
5	Alex Ovechkin	22	2007-08	Was	82	65	47	112
5	Bryan Trottier	22	1978-79	NYI	76	47	87	134
5	Gordie Howe	22	1950-51	Det	70	43	43	86
5	Nels Stewart	22	1925-26	Mtl*	36	34	8	42

Yzerman's Problem in Contract Negotiations

Why is Steve Yzerman sticking to his guns on the $6.3 to $6.7 mil range for Steven Stamkos when Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby received significant contract extensions during their first "blank ink" and MVP season?  Frankly, Tampa placed Yzerman in an impossible situation when hiring him as a Manager.  First, Tampa should have worked out a contract extension with Stamkos during last season when he had his breakout year.  Yzerman was not yet the team's Manager.

The second reason involves estimating Tampa's budget.  If you assume they already operate at the limits of their financial budget, you will discover it to be approximately $57.1 mil when you add up their NHL and AHL salaries for this season.  Tampa already has $44 mil in contractual commitments for next season with 11 NHL roster and 16 AHL roster spots open.  This amount goes up to $50.2 mil if Tampa qualifies four of their NHL RFAs (Restricted Free Agents) and 12 of their AHL RFAs with the minimum required and budgets $800k for 6 other NHL roster spots and $65k for the 4 other AHL roster spots.

This leaves Yzerman with $6.9 mil in next season's budget for Steven Stamkos.  Yzerman is most likely taking his negotiating stance because his budget does not leave him with much alternative.  Frankly, Yzerman should simply trade Stamkos to Chicago for Jonathon Toews if he truly believes Stamkos is more comparable to Toews over Crosby and Ovechkin.  In all likelihood, Yzerman is posturing when claiming Stamkos is comparable to Toews.

Yzerman seems to be waiting Stamkos out until Stamkos has no alternative to accept his offer.  If by chance Stamkos receives an offer sheet for $9 to $10 mil a year, Yzerman can simply match it and deal with the potential $3 mil budget overage later in the season.  The overage can be up to $4.8 mil if Stamkos receives a "max cap" offer.

Steve Yzerman would have to move a player such as Ryan Malone, who is due to make $5.5 mil salary next season, to fix the budget overage.  His other budget options are Mattius Ohland $5.5 mil, Martin St. Louis $5.5 mil, and Vincent Lecavalier $10 mil.

Yvzerman's Exposure

This fallback plan has one hole it.  It may not withstand the pressure of a front-end loaded contract.  For example, a team can offer Steven Stamkos an 11-year $9.5 mil cap salary contract where it is front-end loaded with a $29.5 mil 1st year salary and $7 mil salary for each of the remaining 10 years.  Tampa Bay may not have the financial means to handle this budget overage.  Matching this qualifying offer might turn this team into the Winnipeg Jets within a year or two.

The Toronto Threat

Will Brian Burke pounce on the opportunity to scoop Steven Stamkos from Tampa Bay Lightning?  It will cost Toronto four 1st round draft picks.

My sense is Brian Burke prefers to find a first line forward in the $5 to $6 mil cap salary range.  However, he is having difficulty acquiring such a player and might have to resort to "Plan B".  "Plan B" has $23 mil in cap space available next season with 12 roster spots to fill.  When you factor in RFA resignings, Brian Burke probably has up to $10 mil in cap space next season to sign Steven Stamkos.  It goes up to $13 mil if the cap increases by $3 mil.

If Brian Burke is truly considering Steven Stamkos as a "Plan B" option, he must weigh it against the possibility of John Tavares being an RFA the following season.  New York Islanders is a woeful team.  It is a classic example of "tanking".  One of the biggest ramifications of tanking is players not wanting to play for the team.  Will the Islanders have this problem with John Tavares?  They certainly have it with Evgeni Nabakov.

The cap hit for signing Tavares in 2012 is most likely within $7 mil and would only cost two 1sts, one 2nd, and one 3rd round draft pick.  In addition, the Islanders are equally vulnerable to a front-end loaded contract.  It appears their budget is about $43 mil and will have at most $8.2 mil available in their budget for Tavares.  A front-end loaded contract with $27 mil in the first year may be too much for New York to match.

During the 2009 Entry Draft, Brian Burke did express his interest in John Tavares and brushed off anyone who thought the idea of getting John Tavares was absurd.  Perhaps, he already had this scheme in mind.  Will the new CBA in 2012 undermine this plan?

Equally interesting is the rumoured Tomas Kaberle deal with Tampa Bay, which fell apart in the final hour on 15th of August.  Reports had a trade worked out with Toronto sending Tomas Kaberle to Tampa Bay for Ryan Malone plus other elements.  Reports had trade discussions to the point where Ryan Malone had waived his no-trade clause for the deal.  But, for some reason, the trade fell apart in the final hour.  Did Brian Burke conclude in the final hour it will be difficult for Tampa to extend Steven Stamkos with Ryan Malone on their payroll?

Conclusion

All of this can end up as simple speculation if Steve Yzerman extends Steven Stamkos before the end of the season.  If the 2011-2012 budget is limiting Tampa's offer, it can be resolved by trading Ryan Malone.  However, Steve Yzerman may end up outsmarting himself if relies on simply matching any qualifying offer accepted by Steven Stamkos.  New York Islanders should pay close attention because they will be up next the following season with John Tavares.

Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed By Yzerman - Again! was posted on 28th of November, 2010.

Tweet



Follow @Leafschatter 

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Brian Burke Made Room for Tyler Bozak by
Losing Staffan Kronwall on Re-Entry Waivers

Brian Burke will have to make room for at least 11 new players on his 50 Active Player Roster.  He presently has 48 players on the 50 Active Player Roster.  The 11 new players will come from the 19 prospects/draft choices on his 90 Player Reserve List (which includes the 50 Active Player Roster), Entry Level free-agents, and NHL/Pro free agents.

11 new players is a conservative estimation because Burke added 13 last off-season and 12 the previous off-season.  Brian Burke likes to keep two spots open on the 50 Active Player Roster at the beginning of the season in order to have flexibility when making trades or signing free agents.

As a result, expect Brian Burke to move at least 11 players from the current 50 Active Player Roster between now and the off-season.  Who will they be?

Hockey talent and contract status will have a big bearing on who goes.  But, there are other factors.  A player's age, waiver exempt status, and re-entry waiver exempt status.

In short, Burke will categorize players as NHLer, Prospect, or Depth Player.  As the name suggests, NHLers are the players who he expects to be on the 23-Man NHL Roster.  Prospects are the Pro Players who are waiver exempt.  Depth players are the remaining pros on two-way contracts expected to play in the minors.  Brian Burke collects a special type of depth player, which requires a closer look.

Brian Burke collects what I like to call "elite" depth players.  Borderline NHLers can be another characterization.  He acquires them by offering high AHL salaries in a two-way contract when they are free agents.  For example, Mike Zigomannis and Tim Brent have $250k as the AHL salary and Joey Crabb and Danny Richmond have $200k as the AHL salary in their two-way contracts.  Normally, any AHL salary over $105k requires a player to clear re-entry waivers when recalled by their NHL team.  However, any player with at least 320 professional games and no more than 40 games on an NHL roster the previous season or no more than 80 games on an NHL roster the past 2 seasons is exempt from re-entry waivers.  Mike Zigomannis, Joey Crabb, Tim Brent, and Danny Richmond meet the criteria making them exempt from re-entry waivers.

In addition to getting the top AHLers who are exempt from re-entry waivers, this strategy of paying high AHL salaries makes it difficult for budget NHL teams to claim these players when placed on waivers for assignment to Toronto Marlies.  Their budget has little room for the high AHL salary if the borderline NHLer can't stick with their team.

Next season, Matt Lashoff will meet the "elite" depth player criteria.  Tim Brent needs to be assigned to the AHL for at least 3 NHL games to maintain his re-entry waiver exempt status.  Newly acquired Fabian Brunnstrom will not qualify for an "elite" depth player contract.  In fact, Burke may place him on re-entry waivers before the end of the season with the hope another team claims him at half NHL salary so Toronto has room for a college free agent signing.  Brian Burke did it two years ago with Staffan Kronwell to make roster room to sign college free agents Tyler Bozak and Christian Hanson.

A final consideration is an AHL rule requiring each team to dress at least 11 players who played fewer than 320 professional games in the NHL, AHL, and ECHL.  This is easy for Toronto to manage with the overall youth in its organization.

Below, you see a table listing the 48 players currently on the 50 Active Player Roster plus prospects on Toronto's 90 Player Reserve list who are eligible to play in either the NHL and AHL.  We list each player's age in brackets.  NHL roster players are in bold letters.  Players who will be exempt from waivers are in italics.  "Elite" Depth contract players are identified with an *.  Prospects who become unrestricted free agents if unsigned by this summer are identified with a **.  Junior players already signed to a professional contract are identified with a ***.  AHL players trending to have fewer than 320 professional games played by the end of the season are identified with an x.

	Under Contract	UFAs	RFAs	Prospects
1	J.Finger (31)	J.S. Giguere (33)	J. Mitchell (26)	M. Frattin (23)**
2	F.Beauchemin(30)	T. Kaberle (32)	D. Boyce (26)x	L. Komarov (23)
3	B. Lebda (29)	M.Zigomannis(30)*	D. Richmond (26)*	B. Winnett (21)**
4	M.Komisarek (29)	F. Sjostrom (27)	A. Foster (26)	D. Brodin (20)
5	C. Armstrong (28)	J. Crabb (27)*	C. MacArthur (25)	J. Flaake (20)
6	C. Orr (28)	T. Brent (27)*	M. Brown (25)	J.Blacker (19)***
7	M. Grabovski (27)		J. Rosehill (25)	J.Devane (19)***
8	J.Gustavsson(26)		F. Brunnstrom (25)x	K. Ryan (19)
9	D. Phaneuf (25)		R. Hamilton (25)x	B. Smith (19)
10	N. Kulemin (24)		T. Bozak (24)	S. Olden (18)
11	K. Versteeg (24)		C.Gunnarsson(24)	P.Granberg (18)
12	P. Kessel (23)		C. Hanson (24)x
13	J. Rynnas (23)x		B. Scrivens (24)x
14	S. Gysbers (23)x		M. Lashoff (24)
15	M. Mueller (22)x		B. Irwin (23)x
16	K. Holzer (22)x		J. Reimer (22)x
17	J. Mikus (22)x		L. Caputi (22)x
18	R. Slaney (22)x		G. Scott (22)x
19	K. Aulie (21)x		L. Schenn (21)
20	R. Greenop (21)x
21	D. Mitchell (21)x
22	N. Kadri (20)x
23	J. D'Amigo (19)x

The top candidates to go are in red.  You can expect Burke to shop Robert Slaney and Dale Mitchell where he offers to take in return an AHLer in the final year of a one-way NHL contract.  This will be similar to the Mikhail Stefanovich for Fabian Brunnstrom trade.  Effectively, Toronto gives a team budget relief in exchange for roster relief.  Ideally, Toronto will acquire an "elite" depth player candidate when making this type of trade.  A perfect candidate is Edmonton's Alexandre Giroux.  The 29-year-old has a $500k one-year one-way contract.  He is second in AHL scoring and meets the criteria for a "depth" player contract.

UFAs Tomas Kaberle, J. S. Giguere, and Fred Sjostrom are unlikely to return next season.  In total, this provides us with five strong candidates to be moved from the 50 Active Player Roster.  Finding six more candidates from the RFAs and remaining UFAs will be challenging.  Of course, this number goes up if you can't move all of the top five candidates.  I have taken the liberty of identifying the top ten candidates when considering which five to move.  These players might end up as throw-ins for a bigger trade.

Be prepared to see a steady flow of prospects and depth players moved each year from the 50 Active Player Roster to make room for new prospects.  The 50 Active Player Roster is a constraint put in place to prevent large market teams from having a competitive advantage in player development over budget teams.

Brian Burke has found a way to maximize Toronto's financial strength by augmenting draft choices with Entry Level free agents.  This allows him to package prospects to acquire players such as Kris Versteeg.  Expect more of these types of trades at a minor level such as the Matt Lashoff trade.  However, the rules of the game can easily change in 2012 with the next collective bargaining agreement.  This might especially be so when the small market teams see a disadvantage when compared to Toronto.

In two weeks time, we will explore the "Catching the Big Fish" trade in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3.

Post Script - Same Day

You can find frequent updates on Leafs Prospects and Entry Level Free Agents from Hockey Buzz writer Brian Huddle at http://leafnationweekly.blogspot.com  Follow Brian Huddle on Twitter @brianhuddle.

Post Script - 20-Jan-2011

In case you missed it last week Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

Post Script 2-Feb-2011

Follow-on to this post Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

Tweet



Follow @Leafschatter 

Reviewing Toronto Maple Leafs Forwards after 41 Games

Toronto's Power Play Ranks 13th in NHL

Welcome to the second quarterly review of Toronto Maple Leafs forwards.  The 2nd line (now called 1st line by many) was the biggest surprise.  In the 20 game review, I declared the 2nd line to be one of the best in the league and proclaimed it to be unrealistic to expect more from this line.  Yet, they have increased their scoring production.  But, we still wait for increased scoring production from the first line.  Fortunately, the third line has started producing at a proper pace.

Overall Stats

Toronto has dropped to 22nd from 10th in NHL Goals Against per game.  This is a result of dropping to 10th from 4th in NHL Shots per game.  However, Toronto now leads the NHL with the fewest times shorthanded.  In addition, it's penalty killing has gone up to 26th from 27th.  Frankly, the team should rely on better goaltending instead of better defensive play from the forwards to improve on its goals against.

The power play remains strong as it has advanced to 13th from 15th.

Information Used to Assess Lines and Players

There are 3 players to a line and 30 teams in the NHL.  As a result, one can set performance thresholds for each line by looking at the goal scoring league wide in segments of 90 forwards.  Within these segments, you can designate a playoff and non-playoff echelon based on 16 teams making the playoffs.

Reviewing last season's statistics shows a player must score 21 goals to be in the top 90 NHL goal scorers.  In other words, scoring at least 21 goals is first-line quality scoring.  Scoring at least 25 goals is playoff quality first line performance.  Furthermore, 32 or more goals will place you at the top 16 goal scorer level in the league.

Second line quality scoring is 14 to 21 goals where the playoff echelon is 17 to 21 goals.  Third line quality is 9 to 14 goals with 11 to 14 goals as the range for the playoff echelon.  Fourth line quality is 4 to 9 goals with 6 to 9 goals for the playoff echelon.

You may have your own criteria for assessing goal scoring performance.  However, most people are satisfied with benchmarking against the league.

Age is another factor.  Ages 24 to 26 are typically a player's peak scoring years.  You can assume players younger than 24 will improve as they get older.  After the age of 30, players tend to decline.  The ones who excelled before the age of 24 tend to take longer to decline versus the others.  In other words, they can sustain good performance into their 30s.

Scoring percentage is another consideration when evaluating players.  For me, a player must have at least a 10% scoring percentage to get regular ice time.  You can make exceptions for exceptional play makers.  Otherwise, the player should be slotted for fourth line duty.

First line  Getting proper line-mates for Phil Kessel has been a problem.  Nazem Kadri couldn't sustain his production from his first six games and Tyler Bozak had woeful scoring production up until Christmas.  However, Joey Crabb replaced Kadri with adequate play and Tyler Bozak scored 3 goals and 3 assists in his last 7 games.  There is upside to this line if Tyler Bozak can duplicate last season's finish.

Phil Kessel   RW   GP - 41   G - 18   A - 12   Pts - 30   Pct - 10.3%

Age 23.  6'0" 202 lbs.  Presently on pace to score 36 goals.  Expect his pace to pick up in the second half of the season because he is 23 years old.  One season away from his peak playing years.  Presently tied for 11th in NHL Goal Scoring.  Has more goals scored than any player on Boston, Montreal, Buffalo, and Ottawa.  Needs better scoring production from line-mates.

Tyler Bozak   C   GP - 41   G - 7   A - 10   Pts - 17   Pct - 10.1%

Age 24.  6'1" 195 lbs.  Has ended his scoring slump by scoring 3 goals and 3 assists in the last 7 games.  Last season, scored 7 goals and 12 assists in 21 games during February and March.  A repeat performance will give the line more upside scoring.  51.6% on faceoffs.

Joey Crabb   LW   GP - 9   G - 0   A - 5   Pts - 5   Pct - 0.0%

Age 27.  6'1" 190 lbs.  Doing spade work for the line.  Good depth player filling in an existing hole.  Unlikely to be anything more than a temporary solution.  

With the slow development of Kadri, Toronto needs a solid rebound from Tyler Bozak and a big trade to fully leverage Kessel's scoring ability.  Otherwise, Burke will have to wait until the off-season to retool this line.  Perhaps, Kadri gets recalled if he gets hot in the AHL and Crabb or Bozak cools off.

Second Line  Outstanding in every way.  Probably the best second lines in the league.  Being called teams first line.  Delivering first line results with second line playing time.  All three players are playing to their full potential.  In the 20 game review, stated it is unrealistic to expect more scoring production from this line.  Yet, they have delivered more.

Clarke MacArthur   LW   GP - 41   G - 12   A - 22   Pts - 34  Pct - 16.4%

Age 25.  6'0" 190 lbs.  Can score 25 goals this season.  Playing very well with Grabovski and Kulemin.    Shots on goal declined because he is doing more play making.

Nikolai Kulemin   LW/RW   GP - 41   G - 16  A - 14   Pts - 30   Pct - 17.0%

Age 24.  6'1 225 lbs.  Biggest skill forward.  Strong on skates.  Hard to knock from puck.  Now shooting more.  Scored 9 goals in the last 21 games played.  Be prepared for him to crack the 30 goal mark.

Mikhail Grabovski - Age 26.  GP - 40   G - 17   A - 16   Pts - 33   Pct - 14.4%

Age 26.  5'11" 183 lbs.  Scored 12 goals in the last 20 games.  Continues to surprise everyone.  Has more goals scored than any player on Boston, Montreal, Buffalo, and Ottawa.  

Another team will have to offer something awfully good for Burke part with any of these players on his so-called second line.  All three players are in the peak years of their playing career.

Third Line  Doing the job defensively.  Hitting and blocking shots plus taking away the puck from the opposition.  Now a scoring threat with the return of Armstrong and the additions of Versteeg and Boyce.  Need more size on the line.

Kris Versteeg    RW/LW   GP - 40   G - 12   A - 19   Pts - 31   Pct - 11.3%

Age 24.  5'10"  182 lbs.  Leading forwards in blocked shots and take aways.  Established 20-goal scorer on pace for 25 goals.  25 goal pace in spite of his slow start.  Plays a big role on the team's power play.  Don't rule out Versteeg returning to 1st line play if Toronto acquires a big centre for the 1st line.

Colby Armstrong   RW/LW    GP - 25   G - 5   A - 5   Pts - 10   Pct - 17.2%

Age 28.  6'2"  195 lbs.  Size, toughness, aggressiveness, and an NHL shot.  Nothing more needs to be said.

Darryl Boyce   C   GP - 6   G - 2   A - 2   Pts - 4   Pct - 40.0%

Age 26.  6'0" 200 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, and scores.  Needs to improve on 43.6% face-off pct.  Team will want a bigger version him Darryl Boyce.  Sounds like Tim Brent at the start of the season.

The third line needs to get big players with NHL shots for Toronto to be more competitive.  Presently, only Colby Armstrong meets the requirements.  The continued development of Christian Hanson and Marcel Mueller can result in the needed size in the second half of the season..

Fourth Line  Teams no longer run Leafs out of the rink.

Colton Orr   RW   GP - 41   G - 2   A - 0   Pts - 2   Pct - 16.7%

Age 28.  6'3" 222 lbs.  Nobody runs Toronto out of the rink when Colton Orr is on the bench.  A big difference from two years ago when other teams were running Mike Van Ryn through the glass.

Mike Brown   LW/RW   GP - 22   G - 1   A - 1   Pts - 2   Pct - 4.0%

Age 25.  5'11" 205 lbs.  Hitting, blocking shots, skating, and fighting.  What more can you ask for from a $537k cap salary fourth liner?

Tim Brent   C   GP - 40   G - 3   A - 3   Pts - 6   Pct - 10.3%

Age 26.  6'0" 188 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, and scores.  Needs to improve on 49.8% face-off pct.  Team will want a bigger version of Tim Brent.

Fred Sjostrom   LW   GP - 40   G - 1   A - 4   Pts - 5   Pct - 2.6%

Age 27.  6'1" 218 lbs.  Leading forwards in hits.  Good hard skater.  Scoring pct is too far below 10% to play on the third line.  Relegated to 4th line when Armstrong returned to active play.  It will be interesting to see what happens to Sjostrom when Mike Brown returns from his injury.  Sjostrom is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

John Mitchell   C/LW   GP - 23   G - 2   A - 1   Pts - 3   Pct - 7.1%

Age 25.  6'1" 204 lbs.  Good skating speed and above average face-off performance.  55.7% faceoff pct.  No longer can be considered a prospect.

With small players for top six forwards, Toronto needs a big tough 4th line.  Brown and Orr meet the requirements.

Prospects

Nazem Kadri   LW   GP - 17   G - 0   A - 6     Pts - 6     Pct - 0.0%     (NHL)

                                GP - 18   G - 7   A - 11   Pts - 18   Pct - 14.6%   (AHL)

Age 20.  6'0" 185 lbs.  Called up sooner than planned to help team address scoring problem.  Helped trigger the power play.  However, slumped to only 2 assists in 11 games before being assigned to Marlies.  Has scored 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 games played since returning to AHL.  Don't be surprised to see him return to NHL play if he becomes hot in the AHL.

Christian Hanson   C   GP - 3     G - 0     A - 0     Pts - 0     Pct - 0.0%     (NHL)

                                    GP - 31   G - 10   A - 10   Pts - 20   Pct - 14.1%   (AHL)

Age 24.  6'4" 228 lbs.  Big.  Strong on face-offs.  Has found his scoring touch in the past two months.  Scored 7 goals and 7 assists in he last 17 AHL games played.  Expect him to be called up by the trade deadline.

Marcel Mueller   LW   GP - 39   G - 7   A - 13   Pts - 20   Pct - 9.7%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'3" 232 lbs.  Rebounded from an extremely slow start in the first two months.  Scored 6 goals and 9 assists in the last 18 AHL games played.  Good chance of getting called up to NHL by trade deadline.  Will be the biggest forward on the Leafs if called up.  Will add much needed size to third line.

Matt Frattin   RW   GP - 23   G - 20   A - 8   Pts - 28   Pct - 21.2%   (Univ of North Dakota)

Age 22.  6'2" 205 lbs.  Currently leads WCHA in goals scored.  Almost double the number of the second best goal scorer.  Final year in US College hockey.  Certain to be a Hobey Baker trophy candidate.  Will be ready to turn pro this spring.  Toronto's fourth round draft pick in 2007 Entry Draft.  Viktor Stalberg scored 24 goals in 39 games when he was a Hobey Baker trophy candidate in his final year of college hockey.

Mike Zigomannis   C   GP - 8     G - 0   A - 1     Pts - 1     Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)
                                   GP - 33   G - 5   A - 17   Pts - 22   Pct - 6.7%   (AHL)

Age 29.  6'0"  200 lbs.  20-2-8-10  Versatile.  $500k cap salary gives team cap flexibility.  Doesn't need to clear re-entry waivers when recalled from AHL.  Scored 2 goals and 8 assists in last 20 AHL games.  Strictly a depth player.

Justin Hodgman  C   GP - 31   G - 8   A - 13   Pts - 21   Pct - 15.1%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'1"  203 lbs.  Slowed down after fast start in AHL.  Scored 2 goals and 4 assists in last 13 AHL games played.  Not eligible for NHL play because not on Toronto's 50 Active Player roster.

Brayden Irwin   C   GP - 39   G - 7   A - 7   Pts - 14   Pct - 10.0%   (AHL)

Age 23.  6'5" 215 lbs.  Key development year for him.  Already has NHL shot.  Needs to work on his skating.  Slow progress in development.  Scored 4 goals and 2 assists in last 19 AHL games played.

Jerry D'Amigo   LW/RW   GP - 32   G - 4   A - 6   Pts - 10   Pct - 8.9%   (AHL)

Age 19.  5'11" 208 lbs.  Has potential to develop fast.  Seems to have regressed in the past two months.  Scored 1 goal and 2 assists in last 9 AHL games played.  Still very young with high upside.

Luca Caputi   LW   GP - 7     G - 0   A - 0   Pts - 0   Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)

                               GP - 11   G - 1   A - 4   Pts - 0   Pct - 3.2%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'3"  200 lbs.  Having a disappointing season.  Will not be waiver exempt by next season.  Might be moved to make room for Justin Hodgman on the 50 Active Player roster.  Jiri Tlusty was in similar situation last season where he faced losing his waiver exemption at end of season and Toronto did not have room for Mike Zigomannis on the 50 Active Player roster.

Conclusion  Brian Burke is in a strong position from a player management/development perspective.  He can improve the team by simply letting the young players (up to the ages of 24) develop by getting experience.  He also has cap space, prospects, and a wealth of top six forwards to invite trade offers and hold his ground in trade negotiations.

Ultimately, improving the first line provides him with the greatest chance for improving the team's goal scoring.  Expecting more from the second line may not be realistic.  The bottom six forwards needs more size.  This will be addressed by the arrival of Christian Hanson and Marcel Mueller.  The fourth line should be strictly for role players as long as six goals is within their reach.  Sacrificing team toughness or a face-off man for a couple of more goals does not make sense.

If Burke acquires a top 3 players within the year, it will be ideal if the player's age is within the range of Kadri and Kessel.

Tweet



Follow @Leafschatter