Leafs Forwards After 61 Games

Phil Kessel Might be the Only "True"
1st Line Forward on Toronto's NHL Roster

Welcome to the third quarterly review of Toronto Maple Leafs forwards.

In short, Toronto's offence consists of Phil Kessel and its 2nd line.  It is good enough to have three (Kessel, Grabovski, and Kulemin) of the six top goal scorers in the Northeast division.  This is good enough to be competitive when coupled with good goaltending from James Reimer.  You must remember they are competing against Boston's Tim Thomas, Montreal's Carey Price, and Buffalo's Ryan Miller.

Information Used to Assess Lines and Players

There are 3 players to a line and 30 teams in the NHL.  As a result, one can set performance thresholds for each line by looking at the goal scoring league wide in segments of 90 forwards.  Within these segments, you can designate a playoff and non-playoff echelon based on 16 teams making the playoffs.

Reviewing last season's statistics shows a player must score 21 goals to be in the top 90 NHL goal scorers.  In other words, scoring at least 21 goals is first-line quality scoring.  Scoring at least 25 goals is playoff quality first line performance.  Furthermore, 32 or more goals will place you at the top 16 goal scorer level in the league.

Second line quality scoring is 14 to 21 goals where the playoff echelon is 17 to 21 goals.  Third line quality is 9 to 14 goals with 11 to 14 goals as the range for the playoff echelon.  Fourth line quality is 4 to 9 goals with 6 to 9 goals for the playoff echelon.

You may have your own criteria for assessing goal scoring performance.  However, most people are satisfied with benchmarking against the league.

Age is another factor.  Ages 24 to 26 are typically a player's peak scoring years.  You can assume players younger than 24 will improve as they get older.  After the age of 30, players tend to decline.  The ones who excelled before the age of 24 tend to take longer to decline versus the others.  In other words, they can sustain good performance into their 30s.

Scoring percentage is another consideration when evaluating players.  For me, a player must have at least a 10% scoring percentage to get regular ice time.  You can make exceptions for exceptional play makers.  Otherwise, the player should be slotted for fourth line duty.

First line  Phil Kessel carries the 1st line.  Getting proper line-mates for him has been a problem.  Expect one or two acquisitions to be made by next season to correct this problem.

Phil Kessel   RW   GP - 61   G - 25   A - 19   Pts - 30   Pct - 9.5%

Age 23.  6'0" 202 lbs.  Drafted 5th overall in 2006 Entry Draft.  Leads the team in goals scored.  Will score over 30 goals this season.  Probably around 35 goals.  Presently 15th in NHL goal scoring and 5th in power play goals.  Has recently come out of a 14 game scoring drought with 6 goals in the last 5 games.  How he finishes the season should indicate what you can expect for next season.  He is the only true 1st line forward on the team.

Tyler Bozak   C   GP - 61   G - 10   A - 13   Pts - 26   Pct - 10.6%

Age 24.  6'1" 195 lbs.  Tyler Bozak is having a terrible season as Toronto's 1st line centre.  His scoring production looks even more terrible when compared to other Leaf centres when they were the same age.  At age 24, Kyle Wellwood (59-8-13-21) and John Mitchell (60-6-17-23) had comparable scoring production with lesser roles and ice time.  Has not been the play-making centre hoped by Toronto management.  Bozak's penalty killing and face-off skills might save his NHL career.  Presently, Bozak wins 54.1% of his face-offs and Ron Wilson characterizes him as the team's best penalty killing forward.  Toronto only needs to offer Bozak $918,750 to qualify him for next season.

Joffrey Lupul   LW   GP - 7   G - 0   A - 3   Pts - 3   Pct - 0.0%

Age 27.  6'1" 206 lbs.  A proven 25-goal scorer who returned two months ago from serious injuries.  Drafted 7th overall in 2002 Entry Draft.  His presence adds size to Toronto's top six.  Allows Toronto time to find a more suitable player for 1st line LW.

There are approximately 60 forwards in the NHL who can be categorized as true 1st line forwards.  Phil Kessel is one of them.  Brian Burke's challenge is to find a way to acquire at least one more.  Two, if Nazem Kadri does not develop into a 1st line player.

Second Line  Toronto has the best scoring 2nd line the NHL.  All three players are playing to their full potential.

Clarke MacArthur   LW   GP - 61   G - 18   A - 28   Pts - 46  Pct - 14.3%

Age 25.  6'0" 190 lbs.  Toronto's top scorer.  Having a career year.  Can score 25 goals this season.  Playing very well with Grabovski and Kulemin.  Leads the forwards in hits.

Nikolai Kulemin   LW/RW   GP - 61   G - 21  A - 21   Pts - 42   Pct - 14.9%

Age 24.  6'1 225 lbs.  Biggest skill forward.  Strong on skates.  Hard to knock from puck.  Now shooting more.  Scored 9 goals in the last 21 games played.  Will score 25 goals.

Mikhail Grabovski - Age 27.  GP - 60   G - 24   A - 20   Pts - 44   Pct - 13.9%

Age 26.  5'11" 183 lbs.  Very steady goal scoring.  20th in NHL goal scoring.  Most likely to score over 30 goals.

Another team will have to offer something awfully good for Burke part with any of these players on his so-called second line.  All three players are in the peak years of their playing career.

Third Line  Doing the job defensively.  Hitting and blocking shots.  However, more size and scoring is needed.

Colby Armstrong   RW/LW    GP - 41   G - 7   A - 13   Pts - 20   Pct - 13.7%

Age 28.  6'2"  195 lbs.  Size, toughness, aggressiveness, and an NHL shot.  He anchors the 3rd line.

Darryl Boyce   C   GP - 26   G - 3   A - 6   Pts - 9   Pct - 23.1%

Age 26.  6'0" 200 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, and scores.  Needs to improve on his 45.5% face-off pct.  Will eventually become a 4th line/depth player as more talent gets added to the team.

Fred Sjostrom   LW   GP - 52   G - 2   A - 3   Pts - 5   Pct - 3.7%

Age 27.  6'1" 218 lbs.  One of the leading hitters on the team.  Good hard skater.  Scoring pct is too far below 10% to play on the third line.  Not likely to return to the team when he becomes a UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent) at end of season.

The third line needs to get big players with NHL shots for Toronto to be more competitive.  Presently, only Colby Armstrong meets these requirements.  Perhaps, at the start of next season, it becomes a launch pad for Joe Colborne and Nazem Kadri.  However, the long-term prospects appear to be Christian Hanson and Marcel Mueller.

Fourth Line  A place holder for depth and role players.

Tim Brent   C   GP - 60   G - 7   A - 6   Pts - 13   Pct - 14.3%

Age 26.  6'0" 188 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, wins face-offs, kills penalties, and scores. Face-off pct has improved to 51.8%.  His versatility and dedication assures him of a spot in next year's line-up.

Mike Brown   LW/RW   GP - 29   G - 2   A - 3   Pts - 5   Pct - 6.1%

Age 25.  5'11" 205 lbs.  Hitting, blocking shots, skating, and fighting.  What more can you ask for from a $537k cap salary fourth liner?  This earned him a three year extension at $736k cap salary.

Joey Crabb   LW/RW   GP - 28   G - 1   A - 8   Pts - 9   Pct - 3.3%

Age 27.  6'1" 190 lbs.  Simply a depth player on a depth player contract.

Jay Rosehill   LW   GP - 17   G - 1   A - 1   Pts - 2   Pct - 12.5%

Age 25.  6'3" 215 lbs.  Filling in the tough guy roll during Colton Orr's absence.

Colton Orr   RW   GP - 46   G - 2   A - 0   Pts - 2   Pct - 14.3%

Age 28.  6'3" 222 lbs.  Teams ran Toronto out of the rink before Colton Orr's arrival.  He put an end to that nonsense.  However, he got involved in too many fights and may have ended his hockey career with a bad concussion.

Expect Toronto's 4th line to continue to consist of scrappy and feisty role-players.  Over time, these players will get bigger as per Brian Burke's blue-print.

Traded

Kris Versteeg    RW/LW   GP - 53   G - 14   A - 21   Pts - 35   Pct - 10.9%

Age 24.  5'10"  182 lbs.  A very good 3rd line player who was traded for a 1st and 3rd round draft pick.  An excellent addition to a strong team with large forwards.  However, he could not play well enough to be on the team's 1st line as initially hoped when he was acquired.  He has turned out to be an established 20-goal scorer with little upside.

Prospects

Nazem Kadri   LW   GP - 17   G - 0   A - 6     Pts - 6     Pct - 0.0%     (NHL)

                                GP - 34   G - 13   A - 20   Pts - 33   Pct - 17.3%   (AHL)

Age 20.  6'0" 185 lbs.  Drafted 7th overall in 2009 Entry Draft.  Maintaining a steady scoring pace in AHL.  Don't be surprised to see Kadri back in the NHL at the start of the 2011-12 season.  Might begin next season on the third line.  Expect him to play on the top six within one to two years.

Joe Colborne   C   GP - 3   G - 3   A - 0   Pts - 3   Pct - 60.0%   (AHL)

Age 21.  6'5" 190 lbs.  Acquired from Boston in a trade for Tomas Kaberle.  Drafted 16th overall in 2008 Entry Draft.  Like Kadri, don't be surprised to see Colborne in the NHL at the start of the 2011-12 season playing on the third line.  Also expect him to play on the top six within one to two years.

Jerry D'Amigo   LW/RW   GP - 41   G - 5   A - 9   Pts - 14   Pct - 8.5%   (AHL)

                                        GP - 10   G - 7   A - 8   Pts - 15                      (OHL)

Age 20.  5'11" 208 lbs.  Has potential to develop fast.  Playing time in junior has been the tonic for his stalled development.  Still very young with high upside.

Christian Hanson   C   GP - 6     G - 0     A - 0     Pts - 0     Pct - 0.0%     (NHL)

                                    GP - 45   G - 12   A - 17   Pts - 29   Pct - 11.9%   (AHL)

Age 24.  6'4" 228 lbs.  Big.  Strong on face-offs.  Might stick with NHL roster next season when he is no longer waiver exempt.

Marcel Mueller   LW   GP - 3     G - 0   A - 0     Pts - 0     Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)   

                                   GP - 53   G - 9   A - 16   Pts - 25   Pct - 9.6%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'3" 232 lbs.  Doing well after a slow start.  Needs to complete his orientation to North American hockey and culture.

Matt Frattin   RW   GP - 33   G - 24   A - 14   Pts - 34   Pct - 17.0%   (WCHA)

Age 23.  6'2" 205 lbs.  Currently leads WCHA in goals scored.  His scoring pace has slowed down.  Final year in US College hockey.  Certain to be a Hobey Baker trophy candidate.  Will be ready to turn pro this spring.  Toronto's fourth round draft pick in 2007 Entry Draft.  Viktor Stalberg scored 24 goals in 39 games when he was a Hobey Baker trophy candidate in his final year of college hockey.

Mike Zigomannis   C   GP - 8     G - 0     A - 1     Pts - 1     Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)

                                   GP - 52   G - 10   A - 30   Pts - 40   Pct - 8.9%   (AHL)

Age 30.  6'0"  200 lbs.  Versatile.  $500k cap salary gives team cap flexibility.  Doesn't need to clear re-entry waivers when recalled from AHL.  Hottest scoring Marlie in the past 20 AHL games.  Strictly a depth player.

Justin Hodgman  C   GP - 37   G - 10   A - 14   Pts - 24   Pct - 16.7%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'1"  203 lbs.  Missed some playing time due to injuries.  Not eligible for NHL play because not on Maple Leafs 50 Active Player roster.  Leafs must decide on signing him to an NHL contract to place him on the 50 Active Player roster.

John Mitchell   C/LW   GP - 23   G - 2   A - 1   Pts - 3   Pct - 7.1%      (NHL)

                                    GP - 8     G - 1   A - 4   Pts - 5   Pct - 10.0%   (AHL)

Age 26.  6'1" 204 lbs.   No longer can be considered a prospect.   Good skating speed and above average face-off performance.  55.7% faceoff pct during NHL play.  Eligible (played over 320 pro-games) for a "depth" player contract.  In other words, can earn more than $105k AHL salary and remain re-entry waiver exempt.

Luca Caputi   LW   GP - 7     G - 0   A - 0   Pts - 0   Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)

                               GP - 11   G - 1   A - 4   Pts - 0   Pct - 3.2%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'3"  200 lbs.  Having a disappointing season.  Has missed most of the season due to injury.  Will not be waiver exempt by next season.  Might be moved to make room for Justin Hodgman on the 50 Active Player roster.  Jiri Tlusty was in similar situation last season where he faced losing his waiver exemption at end of season and Toronto did not have room for Mike Zigomannis on the 50 Active Player roster.

Brayden Irwin   C   GP - 45   G - 7   A - 8   Pts - 15   Pct - 8.8%   (AHL)

Age 23.  6'5" 215 lbs.  Key development year for him.  Already has NHL shot.  Needs to work on his skating.  Slow progress in development.  Might be difficult to keep Irwin around next season if room has to be made on 50 Active Player roster for new prospects.

The addition of Joe Colborne has filled out Toronto's prospect list where they can be relied on within one year or two to fill in existing holes on the forward lines.  Some prospects have not made significant advances or even regressed.  However, this is to be expected when working with prospects.  Frankly, many prospect never reach their full potential.

Conclusion  Brian Burke remains in a strong position from a player management/development perspective.  He has traded out Kris Versteeg and acquired Joffrey Lupul and Joe Colborne.  In addition, he acquired two 1st round picks and a conditional 2nd that can be used to acquire another 1st line type player.

Although the team's top scoring forwards measure well against the best in the Northeast division, a play-making centre and bigger forwards are needed.  Ideally, Toronto needs to add three to four players to its top nine. If not through acquisitions, this can be done through the development of its prospects.

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Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 5 - Looking for a "Tank" Trader

Colorado Avalanche will want to Trade
with Toronto if They Intend to Tank

We have seen a flurry of trade activity from Brian Burke in the past two weeks.  He "Time Machine" traded Tomas Kaberle and Francois Beauchemin; cashed out (salvage trade) on Kris Versteeg; and "Making Room for Prospects" traded Mikhail Stefanovich.

As a result, Brian Burke acquired two 2011 1st round draft picks, Joe Colborne (age 20 - drafted 16th 2008), Jake Gardiner (age 20 - drafted 17th in 2008), Joffrey Lupul (age 27 - drafted 7th 2002), and Fabian Brunnstrom (age 25).  Other than Brunnstrom, everything acquired can be used as assets for "Catching the Big Fish" trades.

As discussed in "Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish", most of the "Big Fish" trades are done in the off-season.  Teams usually try to salvage bad situations with top players by trading them during the summer.  This rarely gets done at trade deadline.  In fact, Brian Burke indicated he expects his next big trade to most likely occur in the summer.

Brian Burke probably has completed all of his trades to cup contenders.  He does have his eye on Brayden Schenn, Los Angeles Kings top prospect.  However, it is most unlikely a deal gets done.  Los Angeles is a borderline playoff team.  They will only consider such a trade if they were in the middle of the playoff pack.  Furthermore, they "Tank Traded" Mike Cammellari in order to finish low in 2009 and draft Brayden Schenn.  Los Angeles trading Brayden Schenn will be like Brian Burke trading Phil Kessel.  It will only happen if the return is to big to turn down.

There might be one type of "Big Fish" trade available to Burke at trade deadline.  It can be with a team wanting to "Tank Trade".  By "Tank Trade", we refer to a team trading their best player who is at the height of their career with the primary purpose of finishing as low as possible to get the top draft pick.  In addition, the "Big Fish" player typically is the highest salaried player on the team.

Past examples are:

1. St. Louis trading Chris Pronger which resulted in having the 1st overall pick in 2006.  The Blues drafted Erik Johnson.
2. Boston trading Joe Thornton which resulted in having the 5th overall pick in 2006.  The Bruins drafted Phil Kessel
3. Tampa Bay trading Brad Richards which resulted in having the 1st overall pick in 2008.  The Lightning drafted Steven Stamkos.
4. Los Angeles trading Mike Cammellari wich resulted in having the 5th overall pick in 2009.  The Kings drafted Brayden Schenn.

What the "Tank Traders" got in return paled in comparison to the "Big Fish" they gave up.  It was strictly about shedding salary and getting the next top prospect.

In the next week, Brian Burke will be on the lookout for "Tank Traders".  Who may they be?  A close look at the bottom of the league standings quickly identifies the possible candidates.

NHL Standings after 20th Feb 2011
Rank	Team	GP	W	L	T	Pts	Last 10
24	Florida	58	25	26	7	57	3 - 5 -2
25	Colorado	59	25	27	7	57	0 - 9 - 1
26	Toronto	59	25	27	7	57	6 - 2 - 2
27	New Jersey	59	25	30	4	54	9 - 0 - 1
28	Islanders	59	22	30	7	51	7 - 3 - 0
29	Ottawa	59	19	31	9	47	2 - 6 - 2
30	Edmonton	59	19	32	8	46	4 - 6 - 0

You can rule out New Jersey and New York Islanders.  New Jersey has just committed to Ilya Kovalchuk in the past year.  Where as the Islanders have completed their "Tank Trades" when they traded Dwayne Roloson and James Wisniewski.

Ottawa and Edmonton are weak candidates given they are already at the bottom and don't have budget issues.  They seem to be more interested in getting maximum value for their players such as Jason Spezza. If Burke inquires about their tanking intentions, he will probably target Jason Spezza (age 27 - $8 mil salary this season), Dustin Penner (age 28 - $4.25 mil salary this season), and Ryan Whitney (age 27 - $5 mil salary next season).

The true "Tank Trade" candidates are Florida Panthers and Colorado Avalanche.  They are borderline lottery pick teams and dropping fast. In addition, if they intend to tank, it is in their interest to help Toronto.

I expect Brian Burke to target Colorado out of the two teams.  He will want Paul Stastny (age 25 - $6.6 mil salary for the next three seasons). Colorado already knows the value of tanking.  In 2008-09, Colorado finished 1-7-3 in their last 11 games when Paul Statsny was out with an injury.  This resulted in Colorado picking 3rd overall.  Their selection was Matt Duchene.

After drafting Matt Duchene, Colorado has acquired other young high ceiling prospects: Peter Mueller (age 22, drafted 8th in 2006) and Erik Johnson (age 22, drafted 1st in 2006).  They also have a conditional 2011 1st from St. Louis.  Colorado has actively acquired high ceiling prospects within the age of 22 years old.

Colorado may not want to do a true "Tank Trade".  Brian Burke might have to offer some 1st round draft picks to entice them into a "Tank Trade".  Never the less, do not be surprised when hearing rumours about Toronto Maple Leafs being interested in Colorado Avalanche's Paul Statsny.

You might also be interested in:

1. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1
2. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects
3. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish
4. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

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Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

"Time Machine" Trades
Usually Involve Budget Teams

"Tomas Kaberle and the 'Time Machine' Trade" is part of a series of "Brian Burke's Next Trade" posts:

1. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1
2. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects
3. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish

In essence, a "Time Machine" trade is where you trade a player in his declining playing years (when he is past 30 years old) for a player who will be part of your team's core in the immediate near future.  Presently, Tomas Kaberle is 32 years old.

Brian Burke has been trying for the past two years to pull off a "Time Machine" trade involving Tomas Kaberle.  He thought he had one with Boston Bruins before the 2009-10 season.  However, there was a significant misunderstanding.  Brian Burke thought Boston agreed to send Phil Kessel and its 2009 1st round draft pick for Tomas Kaberle.  Peter Chiarelli, Boston's Manager, thought he traded Phil Kessel for Tomas Kaberle and Toronto's 2009 1st round draft pick.

There was a reported trade with Philadelphia vetoed by Tomas Kaberle prior to Brian Burke arriving to Toronto.  It was alleged Cliff Fletcher, Toronto's Manager at the time, reached agreement with Philadelphia agreed to send 29 year-old Tomas Kaberle for 22 year-old Jeff Carter and Philadephia's  2008 1st round pick.  Tomas Kaberle has a conditional NTC (No Trade Clause) in his contract where it goes dormant during the summer when Toronto fails to make the playoffs.

Why has it been so difficult to trade Tomas Kaberle?  What can you expect in return for him?  What strategy should Brian Burke use to trade him?

History is always a good starting point to find possible answers to these questions.  Below is a list of all "Time Machine" trades since the lockout involving players older than 30 who have been All-Stars (representing their team at the NHL All-Star game) and Olympic Team players.  The ages of the players involved in the trade are in brackets.  Players who were 1st round drafts picks have their draft position listed after their age.  Highlighted in yellow are "Time Machine" trades that appear to be successful in yielding younger players.  Past Hart Trophy winners are in bold letters.

"Time Machine" Trades Since the Lockout
Date	Players Traded To		Players Acquired By
15-Nov-05	CBJ	Sergei Fedorov (35) 5th 2006 (Maxime Frechette)	ANA	Francois Beauchemin (25) Tyler Wright (32) 12th
30-Jan-06	CAR	Doug Weight (35) Erkki Rajamaki (26)	STL	1st 2006 (upgrade trade)               (Patrik Bergland) Mike Zigomannis (24) Jesse Boulerice (27) Magnus Kahnberg (25)
16-Dec-06	PHA	Alexei Zhitnik (33)	NYI	Freddie Meyer (26) 3rd 2007 (Mark Katic)
14-Feb-07	ATL	Alexei Zhitnik (33)	PHA	Braydon Coburn (21) 8th
15-Feb-07	NAS	Peter Forsberg (33) 5th	PHA	Scottie Upshall (23) 6th Ryan Parent (19) 18th 1st 2007 (traded for players)               (Scott Hartnell)               (Kimmo Timanen) 3rd 2007 (traded)
27-Feb-07	SJ	Bill Guerin (36)	STL	Ville Nieminen (29) 1st 2007 (David Perron)
27-Feb-07	NYI	Ryan Smyth (30) 6th	EDM	Robert Nilsson (21) 15th Ryan O'Marra (19) 15th 1st 2007 (Alex Plante)
22-Jun-07	FLA	Tomas Vokoun (31)	NAS	1st 2008 (upgrade trade)               (Colin Wilson) 2nd 2007 (Nick Spaling) 2nd 2008 (traded)
14-Dec-07	ANA	Doug Weight (37) Michal Birner (21) 7th 2007 (Paul Karpowich)	STL	Andy McDonald (30)
26-Feb-08	COL	Adam Foote (36)	CBJ	1st 2008 (traded for players)               (RJ Umberger) 4th 2008 (David Savard)
29-Jun-08	Edm	Lubomir Visnovsky (32)	LA	Jarret Stoll (26) Matt Greene (25)
26-Jun-09	PHA	Chris Pronger (34) 2nd Ryan Dingle (25)	ANA	Joffrey Lupul (26) 7th Luca Sbisa (20) 19th 1st 2009 (traded for picks)               (Kyle Palmieri)               (Matt Clark) 1st 2010 (Emerson Etem)
3-Jul-09	LA	Ryan Smyth (33) 6th	COL	Kyle Quincey (24) Tom Preissing (30) 5th 2010 (Luke Walker)
3-Mar-10	ANA	Lubomir Visnovsky (33)	EDM	Ryan Whitney (26) 5th 6th 2010 (Brandon Davidson)
19-Jun-10	NJ	Jason Arnott (35) 7th	NAS	2nd 2011 Matt Halischuk (22)
6-Jan-11	DAL	Jamie Langenbrunner (35)	NJ	3rd 2011 (conditonal 2nd)

When reviewing these trades you will notice a few things:

1. Budget teams typically acquire "Time Machine" trade players.
2. "Time Machine" trades are usually done as the trade deadline approaches.
3. Philadelphia Flyers have history of doing "Time Machine" trades.
4. Except for the Flyers trade, returns in "Time Machine" trades have been weak in past three seasons.
5. Boston Bruins do not participate in "Time Machine" trades.

It makes sense for budget teams to seek out "Time Machine" trades when making a cup run.  This is there only chance to acquire these types of players.  Their budgets simply don't have room to have these large salaries for a complete season.  As a result, they are not in the market to sign them as free agents.

Here are the ramifications on Burke's quest to "Time Machine" trade Tomas Kaberle:

1. Market probably reduced to just Philadelphia because of Kaberle's NTC (No Trade Clause).  Doubtful Kaberle waives it for a budget team.
2. Philadelphia only has $5.064 mil room in next year's cap to extend Kaberle.  Getting a contract extension as part of the trade is the rumoured requirement for Kaberle to waive his NTC.

"Time Machine" trading Tomas Kaberle may just be a forlorn hope.  This is unfortunate since Burke has targeted James Van Riemsdyk on Philadelphia.  However, Burke does have some factors working in his favour:

1. Philadelphia needs to improve its power play.  It is currently ranked 17th in the NHL and below the league average.
2. Moving Van Riemsdyk creates cap room for Philadelphia to extend Kaberle.
3. Paul Holmgren, Philadelphia's Manager, values Kaberle.  Remember his willingness to trade Jeff Carter for Kaberle.
4. Brian Burke can make the deal bigger by adding Kris Versteeg.  However, it requires Toronto taking back Brayden Colburn or Matt Carle so Flyers comply with next year's cap when extending Kaberle.  
5. Toronto can take any unwanted cap salary from Philadelphia so Flyers can do additional trades.  For example, Holmgren may want to shed Nikolai Zherdev from their roster.  Shedding the cap salary and opening a third spot on their 50 Active Player roster.

James Van Riemsdyk and Matt Carle or Brayden Colburn for Tomas Kaberle (with contract extension) and Kris Versteeg might be too costly for Philadelphia.  Ultimately, it will come down to Paul Holmgren having to choose between "wanting to win the trade" versus "wanting to win the cup".  It will be interesting to watch.

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Kris Versteeg was traded to Philadelphia Flyers for a 1st and 3rd round pick within two hours of posting this blog entry.  This trade makes it almost impossible to move Tomas Kaberle to Philadelphia since they are capped out.  Brian Burke and Peter Chiarelli are now forced to deal with each other again!  Fans from both teams must be holding their breadth.

Post Script 18-Feb-2011

Another observation worth noting is the importance of receiving 1st round draft picks when making "Time Machine" trades.  You see them in many "Time Machine" trades.  These draft picks are usually later traded for a top prospect or a higher draft pick.  In essence, when acquiring a 1st round draft pick, the Manager acquires an asset that holds its value over time and can be moved to any team regardless of its cap and budget restrictions.  Furthermore, 1st round draft picks do not have NTC or NMC (No Movement Clause).

Post Script Part II 18-Feb-2011

Tomas Kaberle has been traded for Joe Colborne (drafted 16th overall in 2008 Entry Draft) and Boston's 2011 1st pick and a conditional 2nd pick from 2011.  Boston's 2nd pick depends on Kaberle either resigning with Boston or Boston advancing to the Stanley Cup finals.

Only Chris Pronger and Peter Forsberg have garnered a larger return in a "Time Machine" trade.  Both of them happen to be former Hart Trophy winners and Top 5 draft picks.

However, if the initial strategy was to package Kris Versteeg to magnify Kaberle's value, Burke can claim success with Colborne, two 1st round picks, and a conditional 2nd round pick.  In fact, splitting up Versteeg to get a 1st when the strategy wasn't working increased the return and applied pressure on Boston to make a move.

As a result, the combined returns for Kaberle and Versteeg compare nicely to Forsberg and Pronger.

Traditionally, Boston has never acquired a "Time Machine" player.  They usually acquire their players such as Marc Savard, Zdano Chara, Tim Thomas, and Mark Ryder through free agency.

Traditionally, Brian Burke does not acquire prospects and 1st round picks when doing a "Time Machine" trade.  In the past, he has acquired Francois Beauchemin and Andy McDonald in these trades.  He even stated his current objective is to get players.

Brian Burke has shown tremendous flexibility.  In doing so, he has pulled a rabbit out of the hat by getting "Hart Trophy winner" like returns for Kaberle and Versteeg.

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NHL Beware! ~ The "Winnipeg Curse"

Winnipeg Jets is not the only Winnipeg professional

hockey team to suffer an injustice from the NHL

You are wondering what is the "Winnipeg Curse" and why the NHL should be wary of it?  Like most people, you remember the Winnipeg Jets NHL franchise moving to Phoenix in 1996 to operate as the Phoenix Coyotes.  They did it to make the franchise more financially viable.

You might even see the irony in the franchise's current financial state and ownership struggles.  Perhaps, this is just another example of the "Hockey Gods" meting out justice.  However, you probably never gave any thought to the possibility of a "Winnipeg Curse".

The Winnipeg Jets are not the first professional hockey franchise to leave Winnipeg.  In fact, it is the second one to have done it.  The first one was the Winnipeg Warriors, a minor "professional" team in the WHL (Western Hockey League).  They started in 1955 and by 1961 relocated to San Francisco to operate as the San Francisco Seals and then in 1966 as the California Seals in Oakland.

This team was the genesis of the San Francisco - Oakland franchise.  The first failed NHL expansion franchise.  After entering the NHL in 1967-68 as the California Seals, it went through several iterations Oakland Seals, back to the California Golden Seals, California Seals, and eventually disbanded in June 1978 as Cleveland Barons.

After ceasing operations of the Cleveland Barons, the NHL transferred the rights of the team's players to Minnesota North Stars and had Cleveland's owner, Gordon Gund, assume ownership of the Minnesota franchise.  In 1991, Minnesota changed ownership and, in 1993, transferred to Dallas to operate as the Dallas Stars.

As you can see, we have one NHL franchise failure and two others, Phoenix and Dallas, with their ownership in limbo, all having roots in professional hockey taken away from Winnipeg.

But, are a series of coincidental misfortunes enough to declare a curse?  Where is the injustice that gives reason for this curse?

Some tell you Winnipeg never deserved professional hockey because it is too small.  They do their best to convince you Winnipeg is naturally forsaken.  Sometimes, they resort to belittling the city, its weather, and its people.

Many people can attest to the unfairness involved with losing the Winnipeg Jets.  What can we say about the Winnipeg Warriors?

1955-56 was the inaugural season and an immediate success for both the WHL Winnipeg Warriors and the Winnipeg Arena.  The Warriors won both Lester Patrick Cup (WHL Champions) and Edinburgh Cup (Championship over all Minor Professional hockey).  John Perrin, one of the wealthiest men in Canada, owned the team while his son Jack Perrin Jr. operated it.  John Perrin acquired his wealth as the founder of The San Antonio Gold Mines.  It was the most financially successful gold mine between the Rockies and the Great Lakes.

The Perrins also owned St. Boniface Canadiens, one of the best junior franchises at the time.  They were the 1953 Memorial Cup finalists who lost to Barrie Flyers (Don Cherry's team).  The team had several of the best prospects in hockey: Ab McDonald, Bill Masterton, and Jerry Wilson.  They also owned a second junior team, the Winnipeg Braves who went on to be the 1959 Memorial Cup champions.

The Winnipeg Arena, owned by the City of Winnipeg, was the largest hockey facility west of Chicago.  Although its 9,500 seating capacity paled in comparison to 16,666 for Chicago Stadium (NHL's largest in 1955-56), it was close to 11,563 for Detroit Olympia and 11,900 for Boston Garden.  On 18th of October, 9,671 people attended the first WHL game ever in Winnipeg.  In contrast, the NHL had 10,111 people attend its all-star game in Detroit on 2nd of October.

We can go on and on and bore you with the details of success for the Winnipeg franchise.  But, it keeps us from the question of "what went wrong?".

In short, their relationship soured with their NHL affiliates: Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs.  Montreal and Toronto entered into an affiliation agreement with the Perrins (Winnipeg Warriors) in order to get rights to the junior prospects on St. Boniface Canadiens and Winnipeg Braves.  The agreement affiliated the junior teams to Montreal and Toronto by virtue of their affiliations with Winnipeg Warriors.  In return for the junior affiliations, Montreal and Toronto committed to providing a certain number of professional players.

Once Montreal and Toronto had their junior prospects, they lost interest in providing players.  As a result, Winnipeg become uncompetitive and attendance suffered.  The emergence of Hockey Night in Canada on television compounded this problem even further.

While dealing with the affiliation dispute, Jack Perrin tried to advocate a bigger picture involving revenue growth through television.  He proposed starting a Western division of six teams in the NHL with the purpose of growing television revenue in the US and television revenue sharing amongst all 12 teams.  Jack Perrin also advocated changing from the current junior sponsorship system to a more equitable way of distributing/sharing junior prospects within professional hockey.

Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs did not want to share Hockey Night in Canada revenues with other teams.  Shockingly, the NHL was not interested in growing its US television revenues.  They were afraid giving their players higher profiles through television would cause salaries to rise out of control.  They let their CBS television contract expire in 1960.

In the end, the Perrins ended up taking Montreal and Toronto to court over the matter.  They won the case.  But lost the battle.  They sold the Winnipeg Warriors in 1961 which was then moved to San Francisco.  The Perrins also sold their two junior hockey teams: St. Boniface Candiens and Winnipeg Braves.  Ben Hatskin ended up owning the two junior teams.

Ironically, NHL ended up doing a new television deal in 1963 with CBS.  CBS understood there was an intention to add two NHL teams in California.  Otherwise, CBS would have done a TV deal with WHL.  There was a proposal to add the teams for the 1964-65 season.  But, nothing materialized.

By 1965, CBS gave NHL an ultimatum.  The NHL complied by announcing the addition of six new teams in a Western division.  It declared San Francisco and Vancouver to be acceptable franchise cities and Los Angeles and St. Louis to be potential cities.  NHL decided by 1966 to add Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and San Francisco - Oakland to a new "Western" conference for the 1967-68 season.  NHL rejected both Vancouver and Winnipeg (represented by Ben Hatskin).

Another irony was the scrapping of the junior sponsorship system.  It was forced upon NHL in 1966 by Bill Hunter, owner of Edmonton Oil Kings junior team forced it upon the NHL in 1966 when he refused to affiliate his Memorial Cup championship team with the NHL.  Instead, he helped start an outlaw junior hockey league.  It was CMJHL (Canadian Major Junior Hockey League).  You now know it as WHL (Western Hockey League).  As a result, NHL reverted to the Amateur Draft as the primary way of assigning NHL team rights to junior plays.  Initially, NHL even permitted minor-professional franchises to participate in the Amateur Draft.  Coincidently, Ben Hatskin entered a junior franchise the following year into this outlaw junior league.  He named the team Winnipeg Jets.

In spite of its unwillingness, NHL put in place almost everything advocated by Winnipeg's Jack Perrin.  However, NHL left Winnipeg (along with Vancouver) out in the cold when it came to NHL hockey, a great injustice.

In 1972, another outlaw league came into existence to challenge the NHL.  It was WHA (World Hockey Association).  Ben Hatskin and Bill Hunter entered franchises into the WHA: Winnipeg Jets and Alberta Oilers (now known as Edmonton Oilers).  By 1979, NHL allowed them along with Quebec Nordiques and New England Whalers into the league.

Again, the NHL did it unwillingly.  They initially rejected the WHA bid.  However, a beer drinker strike/protest erupted against Molson Breweries forcing the NHL to reconsider.  One of the greatest moments in beer drinker history.  However, Winnipeg Jets eventual fate is familiar to everyone.  In 1996, the franchise transferred to Phoenix.

Interestingly, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, the perceived villain in the loss of Winnipeg's franchise, is the man who put in place the last element of Jack Perrin's advocacy for professional hockey fairness and prosperity.  It is the equitable distribution of Hockey Night in Canada revenue.  However, he did it after Winnipeg lost its franchise.

Perhaps, to end this "Winnipeg Curse" and bring financial stability back to the NHL, Gary Bettman needs to reconsider placing an NHL franchise in Winnipeg.  The factors for revenue success advocated by Jack Perrin are fully in place.  

This includes arena ownership.  MTS Centre has replaced Winnipeg Arena and True North Sports and Entertainment Ltd owns it.    Although MTS Centre is no bigger than Winnipeg Arena during its NHL years, True North Sports keeps all of the revenue generated by the facilities.  Everything is in Winnipeg's favour.  Now, it is time for NHL to correct an injustice.  Otherwise, it might be time to unleash the wrath of the beer drinkers.

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