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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Assessing Toronto Maple Leafs' Playoff Run - Part 4 - The Final Point

Toronto Maple Leafs had 2nd Best Record
in Eastern Conference Post All-Star Break
Toronto is down to its final point for keeping its playoff hopes alive.  Losing one of its last three games or Buffalo gaining a point in one of its last three games causes Toronto to be eliminated from the playoff hunt.  Toronto faces this dire situation in spite of going 3 - 0 - 0 in the past week.

In fact, James Reimer is 6 - 1 - 0 since sitting out the Florida game.  You should note Reimer was 2 - 3 - 1 in the 7 games leading up to the Florida game after playing back-to-back days on 2nd and 3rd of March.

However, the "true" final point Leafs fans need to remember is only one team in the NHL Eastern Conference had more points than Toronto since the all-star break.  That team is New Jersey Devils.  In short, this team has to be good in order to accomplish that kind of success.  Given its young age, you can conclude the team has started to blossom, which bodes well for next season.

In our series of articles, we have explored Toronto's performance in-depth, by reviewing its performance since the all-star break and then contrast it with the playoff chase teams in their conference at the all-star break.
  
Please note the players' age when reviewing the statistics.  It allows you to determine where a player is within their career.  Peak performing years are typically ages 24 to 26 for forwards; 26 to 28 for defenceman; and 26 to 30 for goaltenders.  Of course, there are exceptions to this rule of thumb.  We list the player's age at the start of the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Players Post All-Star Game 2010-11
Player
Age
Pos
GP
G
A
Pts
+/-
PPG
S%
Phil Kessel
23
RW
30
11
16
27
-2
5
10.7%
Nikolai Kulemin
24
RW
30
13
10
23
9
0
22.8%
Mikhail Grabovski
26
C
30
9
12
21
13
3
8.8%
Clarke MacArthur
25
LW
30
6
15
21
1
0
10.5%
Dion Phaneuf
25
D
30
7
12
19
8
3
9.1%
Joffrey Lupul
27
LW
25
8
8
16
-8
2
11.9%
Tyler Bozak
24
C
30
6
5
11
-14
2
16.7%
Luke Schenn
20
D
30
3
8
11
-3
0
5.5%
Colby Armstrong
27
RW
17
2
9
11
7
0
6.9%
Carl Gunnarsson
23
D
27
1
10
11
1
1
2.9%
Tim Brent
27
C
30
2
8
10
1
0
8.3%
Joey Crabb
27
RW
28
3
5
8
3
0
9.4%
Darryl Boyce
26
C
29
3
5
8
10
0
17.6%
Tomas Kaberle*
32
D
9
1
7
8
4
0
7.1%
Nazem Kadri
19
C
9
3
3
6
3
0
15.0%
Kris Versteeg*
24
LW
7
2
2
4
2
0
16.6%
Mike Brown
25
LW
21
1
2
3
0
0
4.5%
Brett Lebda
28
D
19
1
2
3
5
0
5.6%
Keith Aulie
21
D
25
2
0
2
4
0
9.5%
Jay Rosehill
25
LW
18
1
1
2
-3
0
10.0%
Francois Beauchemin*
30
D
5
1
0
1
-2
0
12.5%
Fredrick Sjostrom
27
LW
23
1
0
1
1
0
5.0%
Mike Komisarek
28
D
27
0
1
1
-3
0
0.0%
Christian Hanson
24
C
3
0
0
0
0
0
0.0%
Matt Lashoff
24
D
8
0
0
0
2
0
0.0%

Practically all of the core offensive players produced.  Only first line centre Tyler Bozak had mediocre scoring statistics.  However, Nazem Kadri's performance at such a young age suggests Toronto might have an alternative in place ready to emerge.

Toronto Maple Leafs Goalies Post All-Star Game 2010-11
Goalie
Age
GP
W
L
T
GA Avg
SO
Save Pct
James Reimer
22
26
16
5
4
2.65
3
.919
J-S Giguere
33
9
2
2
1
3.19
0
.906

Toronto turned around its season by adding James Reimer to its NHL roster.  Reimer kept pace with the best goalies in the world.  He is presently in the NHL Top 10 for goalie save percentage.  The biggest concern about Reimer was his ability to handle the workload.  He never came close to playing 50 games in a professional season of hockey.  Yet, he has now played 49 professional games this season.

To give proper perspective to the production of the Toronto players, we present the statistics of the top players from the Eastern Conference playoff "chase" teams: New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, Atlanta Thrashers, and Florida Panthers.  These teams, other than New Jersey and Toronto, were in playoff contention at the all-star break.

Eastern Conference Playoff "Chase" Scoring Post All-Star Game 2010-11
Player
Age
Team
GP
G
A
Pts
+/-
PPG
S%
Ilya Kovalchuk
27
New Jersey
29
15
12
27
6
3
16.1%
Phil Kessel
23
Toronto
30
11
16
27
-2
5
10.7%
Thomas Vanek
26
Buffalo
29
10
16
26
12
1
12.7%
Drew Stafford
24
Buffalo
28
15
11
26
11
3
20.0%
Ryan Callahan
25
Rangers
28
13
12
25
-5
7
15.4%
Nikolai Kulemin
24
Toronto
30
13
10
23
9
0
22.8%
Erik Cole
31
Carolina
29
11
11
22
-3
1
15.1%
Mikhail Grabovski
26
Toronto
30
9
12
21
13
3
8.8%
Vinny Prospal
35
Rangers
27
6
15
21
5
2
10.3%
Patrik Elias
34
New Jersey
29
6
15
21
2
0
8.1%
Clarke MacArthur
25
Toronto
30
6
15
21
1
0
10.5%

It is hard to be disappointed with Phil Kessel's scoring production when you see no one on the chase teams outscored him.  In fact, past Top 5 Entry Draft picks Eric Staal, Marian Gaborik, Stephen Weiss, and Andrew Ladd did not come close to matching matching Kessel's scoring.  Yes, the same Eric Staal who drafted Phil Kessel last in the all-star game draft.

In the previous week's blog post, we noted at age 24, both Nikolai Kulemin and Drew Stafford have experienced a dramatic increase in scoring production.  You have to wonder if Phil Kessel is due for one next season.  He is one of seven players who have scored at least 30 goals in each of the past three seasons.  Of the seven players, only Phil Kessel and Sidney Crosby have yet to reach their peak scoring years.

East Conference Playoff "Chase" Goalies Post All-Star Game 2010-11
Goalie
Age
Team
GP
W
L
T
Win Pct
GA Avg
SO
Save Pct
Johan Hedberg
37
New Jersey
11
8
1
1
.850
1.48
2
.943
Martin Brodeur
38
New Jersey
19
12
6
1
.657
1.61
2
.925
Cam Ward
26
Carolina
28
13
10
4
.555
2.47
1
.924
Henrik Lundqvist
28
Rangers
26
14
10
2
.560
2.23
4
.921
Ryan Miller
30
Buffalo
24
12
8
4
.583
2.49
2
.919
James Reimer
22
Toronto
26
16
5
4
.720
2.62
3
.919
Jhonas Enroth
22
Buffalo
6
4
0
1
.900
2.53
1
.917
Tomas Vokoun
34
Florida
19
4
12
2
.277
2.76
0
.916
Ondrej Pavelec
23
Atlanta
17
3
10
2
.266
3.38
0
.882

As you can see, James Reimer kept pace with the top workhorse goalies amongst the Eastern Conference playoff chase teams.  He delivered the most victories while keeping pace with them in games played.  Expect James Reimer to get the majority of the workload next season.

Eastern Conference Playoff "Chase" Teams Post All-Star Break Record
Team
GP
Wins
Losses
OT/SO
Points
Win Pct
vs Chase Teams
New Jersey
29
20
7
2
42
.724
9 - 1 - 1
Toronto
30
18
7
5
41
.683
7 - 2 - 2
Buffalo
30
17
8
5
39
.650
9 - 4 - 1
Carolina
29
13
11
5
31
.534
5 - 4 - 5
Rangers
28
14
12
2
30
.535
2 - 5 - 0
Atlanta
26
9
14
3
21
.403
4 - 5 - 3
Florida
30
7
16
7
21
.350
3 - 4 - 3

At the all-star break, the pundits proclaimed Toronto must win two out of every three games and the teams ahead of them must collapse in order for them to have a chance of reaching the playoffs.  Toronto exceeded this pace by 1 point in the 30 games it has played.  The problem is Buffalo almost matched Toronto's pace.  The hole they had to climb out of was simply too deep.

However, there is solace in knowing one of the youngest teams in the NHL has dominated its conference in post all-star game play.  Again, it bodes well for the next season