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Sunday, November 28, 2010

Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed by Yzerman - Again!

Steve Yzerman, Manager of Tampa Bay Lightning
Passed On Steven Stamkos When
Executive Director of Gold Medalist
Team Canada 2010 Olympic Hockey Team
If you have been following the news, you know Steve Yzerman, Manager of Tampa Lightning, will meet Toronto based agent Don Meehan, agent for Steven Stamkos, on Monday when Tampa Bay Lightning is in Toronto to play Toronto Maple Leafs, for their first face-to-face meeting over Steven Stamkos' contract.

First reports indicated Tampa thought they could sign Stamkos for $7 mil annually.  Recent reports indicate Tampa now believes Stamkos will sign within the range of $7 mil to $8 mil for seven years because they see him in between Jonathon Toews and Sidney Crosby.  Furthermore, they express confidence  in Stamkos agreeing to a discount for the good of the team and appreciation for agent Don Meehan's reasonableness and ability to persuade Stamkos to take a discount.

Whom is Don Meehan representing in this matter?  Steven Stamkos or Tampa Bay?  You would think Tampa Bay based on the media reports.

This reminds me of how Gordie Howe always got jerked around on his salary.  It got so bad; it became a hockey industry joke.  LeafsTV recently showed a late 60s replay game which included a between period interview of Detroit owner Bruce Norris by Hockey Night in Canada host Ward Cornell.  In this interview, Cornell made a vague reference to Howe's contract being a good deal for Detroit and suggested Norris must be pleased with it.  Norris concurred while both men could barely contain their smug smirks.

What was so funny?  Bobby Baun (141st in NHL scoring) was making over twice as much money as Gordie Howe (3rd in NHL scoring) in the 1968-69 season.  You can find listed below their statistics from that season.

Rk
Player
Pos
Ht
Wt
Age
GP
G
A
PTS
+/-
PIM
PP
SH
GW
S
S%
3
RW
6-0
205
40
76
44
59
103
45
58
9
0
6
283
15.5
141
D
5-9
175
32
76
4
16
20
24
121
0
0
0
117
3.4

The disparity and injustice was outrageous.  Detroit paid Gordie Howe a paltry $45,000 while paying over $100,000 to Bob Baun.

It was a result of Gordie Howe getting brow beaten by Detroit and the hockey industry for over 20 years.  Detroit would throw Gordie Howe an occasional bone.  One time, as a signing bonus, Detroit gave Gordie Howe a team jacket for "free".  This event made its way into hockey lore as Gordie Howe "wanting" a team jacket instead of more money.

But, I digress from the question on everyone's mind..."How much should Steven Stamkos Get for his new contract?

In my opinion, Steven Stamkos should expect at least $10.6 mil when renewing his contract.  Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin presently receive $9 mil (in real money) for the season.  They agreed to this amount when the NHL cap was $50.3 mil.  In short, they agreed to receive 17.89% of the team's cap in salary.  $10.6 mil is now 17.89% of a team's $59.4 mil cap.  Coincidently, Vincent Lecavalier receives $10 mil  from a contract extension negotiated in 2008 when the NHL cap was $56.7 mil.  $10.476 mil is its equivalent in today's cap.  As for Jonathon Toews, it is difficult to factor in his $6.3 mil cap salary when he simply doesn't compare to Steven Stamkos.

Is Steven Stamkos truly an elite player?

To put things in perspective, we gathered the best 19-year-old scoring statistics in NHL history.  We also included Alex Ovechkin and Mike Bossy at age 20 because they could not play at age 19 in the NHL because of the lockout in 2004 and amateur draft rules in the 1970s.  To add further perspective, we included Vincent Lecavalier's and Jonathon Toews' scoring statistics when they were 19 years old.  The players rank (RK) amongst the NHL scoring leaders for that season is included in the first column of the statistics.

Top 19-Year-Olds In NHL Scoring
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
Season
GP
G
A
PTS ▾
+/-
PIM
PP
SH
GW
S
S%
1
19
1980-81
80
55
109
164
41
28
15
4
3
261
21.1
1
19
2006-07
79
36
84
120
10
60
13
0
4
250
14.4
5
19
1975-76
76
53
58
111
4
33
18
0
3
319
16.6
3
20
2005-06
81
52
54
106
2
52
21
3
5
425
12.2
8
19
1987-88
80
55
52
107
-19
45
22
0
7
264
20.8
13
19
1984-85
73
43
57
100
-35
54
11
0
2
209
20.6
5
19
2009-10
82
51
44
95
-2
38
24
1
5
297
17.2
12
19
1975-76
80
32
63
95
28
21
11
1
5
178
18.0
6
20
1977-78
73
53
38
91
31
6
25
0
5
235
22.6
16
19
1982-83
79
40
51
91
-17
31
13
1
3
297
13.5
18
19
1982-83
79
31
59
90
-25
60
4
2
4
212
14.6
24
19
1984-85
80
30
59
89
-17
58
9
0
3
231
13.0
20
19
1988-89
80
34
54
88
-2
26
16
0
5
182
18.7
33
19
1999-00
80
25
42
67
-25
43
6
0
3
166
16.1
85
19
2007-08
64
24
30
54
11
44
7
0
4
144
16.7
* Member of Hockey Hall of Fame

The numbers speak for themselves.  Steven Stamkos has the fifth best scoring record for 19 year olds in NHL history.  Sidney Crosby is second best to Wayne Gretzky.  Clearly, Steven Stamkos is only in the same class as Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin.  Any comparison to Jonathon Toews is simply an attempt to skew Steven Stamkos' value downwards.

To gain a better appreciation for Steven Stamkos' market value, compare his present season (2010-2011) to the seasons of other players when they signed their big contracts.  Contract extensions signed by Sidney Crosby July 2007; Alex Ovechkin January 2008; Vincent Lecavalier July 2008; and Jonathon Toews December 2009.

Scoring Record when Negotiating a Big Contract
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
Season
GP
G
A
PTS ▾
+/-
PIM
PP
SH
GW
S
S%
1
22
2007-08
82
65
47
112
28
40
22
0
11
446
14.6
1
19
2006-07
79
36
84
120
10
60
13
0
4
250
14.4
2
20
2010-11
24
21
18
39
6
20
10
0
4
91
23.1
7
27
2007-08
81
40
52
92
-17
89
10
1
7
318
12.6
35
21
2009-10
76
25
43
68
22
47
9
1
3
202
12.4

Again, Steven Stamkos only compares with the elite (Ovechkin and Crosby).  He will take his performance above Crosby and Ovechkin if he continues his scoring pace.  Any comparison to Jonathon Toews appears to be simply gratuitous.

Perhaps Steve Yzerman truly believes Steven Stamkos is comparable to Jonathon Toews.  After all, much to the disbelief of many hockey experts, Steve Yzerman passed on Steven Stamkos when he was Executive Director of 2010 Team Canada Olympic Hockey Team.

To gain an even better appreciation for Steven Stamkos, you have to compare his scoring to the best 20 year olds in NHL history.  We whittled the list down to just the elite performers plus Jonathon Toews and Vincent Lecavalier.

Top 20-Year-Olds In NHL Scoring
Rk
Player
Age
Tm
Season
GP
G
A
PTS ▾
+/-
PIM
PP
SH
GW
S
S%
1
20
1981-82
80
92
120
212
81
26
18
6
12
369
24.9
2
20
2010-11
24
21
18
39
6
20
10
0
4
91
23.1
2
20
1985-86
79
48
93
141
-6
43
17
0
4
276
17.4
6
20
1981-82
80
32
87
119
0
82
8
0
4
231
13.9
3
20
2005-06
81
52
54
106
2
52
21
0
11
425
12.2
29
20
2007-08
53
24
48
72
18
39
6
0
4
173
13.9
41
20
2008-09
82
34
35
69
12
51
12
0
7
195
17.4
100
20
2000-01
68
23
28
51
-26
66
7
0
3
165
13.9
* Member of Hockey Hall of Fame

Given his present pace, you can only compare Steven Stamkos to the likes of Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.  Please notice two items.  First, the scoring percentage of Wayne Gretzky and Steven Stamkos compared to others.  Second, game winning goals scored by Gretzky, Stamkos, and Ovechkin.  Each indicating dominant goal scoring.

It appears Steve Yzerman and Tampa Bay Lightning has blundered by not negotiating a contract renewal  last summer with Steven Stamkos.  This blunder is compounded by low balling Steven Stamkos; slotting him in between Jonathon Toews and Sidney Crosby, and using a salary based on a lower cap from 2006-2007 to set an upper threshold.  It will take some deft handling on someone's part to ensure Steven Stamkos does not view these manoeuvres as personal snubs.  

Don Meehan can either vehemently disagree with the framework set by Steve Yzerman and Tampa Bay Lightning or tactfully wait for the end of the season when Steven Stamkos can leverage the market as a RFA (Restricted Free Agent) to receive his true worth.

Going this route will most certainly invite offer sheets for at least $10.5 mil a year.  Perhaps, even a max cap offer (20% of cap) of $11.8 mil  is possible.  This can be $12.4 mil if the cap increases to $62.4 mil.  It will also cost the team four first-round draft picks if Tampa does not match the offer.

An NHL manager rarely gets an opportunity to acquire a player comparable to Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.  It is almost unthinkable.  Someone is bound to be willing to pay the hefty price to acquire Steven Stamkos.  Below, is a list of teams with the cap space and financial means to do it.

Cap Space for 2011-12 Season Assuming $59.4 mil NHL Cap
Team
Cap Space
Roster
Notes
Montreal Canadiens
$25,313,691
9
Kostitsyn RFA Markov & Hamrlik UFA
Washington Capitals
$22,240,428
14
Semin & Laich UFA
Toronto Maple Leafs
$20,613,334
13
Kaberle & Giguerre UFA Schenn RFA
Edmonton Oilers
$19,400,000
14
Souray $5.4 mil in AHL
Los Angeles Kings
$18,806,667
16
Doughty & Johnson RFA Handzus UFA
New York Rangers
$17,550,000
13
Callahan, Dubinsky, & Boyle RFA
Chicago Black Hawks
$17,014,497
10
Seabrook RFA
Ottawa Senators
$16,512,500
15
Kovalev, Phillips, & Leclaire UFA
Detroit Red Wings
$14,841,289
14
Lidstrom UFA

Of course, this is all fruitless speculation if the media is correct about Don Meehan being a reasonable man who is able to convince Steven Stamkos into accepting a "discount" offer from Tampa for the good of the team.  Who knows, if Stamkos is lucky, Don Meehan might convince Tampa to throw in a team jacket for "free".


Post Script 23-Jan-2011


How Brian Burke Gets Steven Stamkos





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