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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Forget About Leafs Finishing 8th - Think About First!

It is time for Toronto Maple Leafs
to Chase Montreal Canadiens
It is time to change your thinking on the Leafs playoff chase.  Instead of targeting the eighth and final playoff spot, start thinking about first place in Northeast division.  Montreal and Boston are each have 42 points.  One occupies third place while the other is in eighth place.  As a result, a chase for eighth place can easily become a chase for first.


Leafs odds of making the playoffs are presently listed at 1.6% chance.  However, the odds one of Montreal and Boston not making the playoffs is 19.8%.  In short, Leafs chances of making the playoffs depend on either Montreal or Boston faltering.  This is not farfetched. 

Northeast DivisionGPWLOLPTSPTS%GFGA
Montreal Canadiens362014242.5839383
Boston Bruins341911442.6179571
Ottawa Senators371617436.48686108
Buffalo Sabres351417432.45794109
Toronto Maple Leafs341317430.44179103
Ottawa 5.2% and Buffalo 3.6% are closer to a playoff position than Toronto but suffered serious setbacks to their chances by recent injuries.  By the way, these odds do not reflect injuries.  Ottawa's best player,  Jason Spezza, will miss at least six weeks because of a shoulder injury.  Buffalo's top scorer, Derek Roy, is out for the remainder of the season.  In addition, Buffalo's best player, Ryan Miller, has suffered a nagging hip injury and Ottawa has a group of key players over 35 years old (Daniel Alfredsson, Alex Kovalev, and Sergei Gonchar) also suffering from nagging injuries.

With this in mind, you Leafs fans have to ask "How does Toronto stack up against Montreal and Boston?".

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal's fortunes depend on enigmatic Carey Price.  His great performance in October and November pushed Montreal into first place in their division.  But, Montreal will be in trouble if his ordinary performance in December continues for the rest of the season.  Especially if he mirrors last season's finish.

Carey Price Monthly Splits for Last Two Seasons
Year MonthGPWLT/OGASASVSV%GAASO
2009
October
8
2
5
0
25
226
201
.889
3.44
0
November
11
5
4
2
28
358
330
.922
2.48
0
December
8
3
4
1
18
242
224
.926
2.25
0
2010
January
6
1
4
1
18
194
176
.907
3.01
0
February
3
1
1
1
9
80
71
.888
3.76
0
March
5
1
2
1
11
144
133
.924
2.52
0
April
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-
-
0

October1063124272248.9122.381
November1284019392373.9521.593
December1155132307275.8962.910
Montreal has little upside in its top six forward scoring.  In fact, their performance to date is comparable to Toronto's best six forwards.  Most of Montreal's top six forwards have passed their peak performance years (ages 24 to 26) while the ones in their peak years (Kostitsyn and Pouliot) have little upside potential.

Player HtWtAgeGPGAPTS PP SH GW S%
Tomas Plekanec 5-111982835111930 1 0 2 12.0
Michael Cammalleri 5-91822835121527 5 0 2 11.2
Andrei Kostitsyn 6-021425 35 10 13 23 4 0 2 11.2
Brian Gionta 5-7173313612921 2 1 4 8.3
Benoit Pouliot 6-3199243571017 1 0 2 13.5
Scott Gomez 5-11202313451217 2 0 1 8.9
With this present scoring, Montreal's playoff hopes fall squarely upon Carey Price's shoulders.  Montreal will drift down in the standings if Price does not regain his early season form.

Boston Bruins

Boston has been getting spectacular (awesome, miraculous...) goaltending from Tim Thomas and great goaltending from Tuukka Rask.  Yet, there are rumours about Claude Julien's job as Boston's coach being at risk.  Tuukka Rask has a terrible 2-7-1 W-L-OT record in spite of his outstanding .927 save percentage.

Player HtWtAgeGPWLT/OGA SV% GAA SO
Tim Thomas5-112083625174342 .949 1.68 5
Tuukka Rask 6-2171231027124 .927 2.57 1
Team Total 3431911466 .942 1.92 6
Boston is simply not playing good team defence.  They are 25th in NHL Shots Allowed on Goal per Game.  Julien will have an awful mess on his hands if Thomas re-injures his hip.  This is a real risk given Tim Thomas is 36 years old.  To give his age perspective, remember, Quebec Nordiques drafted him in the Entry Draft.

Tim Thomas Monthly Splits for Last Two Seasons
Year
Month
GP
W
L
T/O
GA
SA
SV
SV%
GAA
SO
2009
October
8
4
4
0
23
245
222
.906
2.86
1
November
7
2
2
3
13
180
167
.928
1.80
2
December
9
4
3
2
22
286
264
.923
2.53
1
2010
January
10
3
5
2
24
263
239
.909
2.74
0
February
1
0
1
0
3
25
22
.880
3.06
0
March
7
3
3
1
16
185
169
.914
2.72
0
April
1
0
1
0
3
25
22
.880
3.06
0

October
6
6
0
0
3
185
182
.984
0.50
3
November
9
5
2
1
20
282
262
.929
2.29
1
December
9
5
2
2
17
316
299
.946
1.85
1
Boston has more upside in scoring potential with their young forwards.  Milan Lucic, their top scorer, is only 22 years old!  Three of their other top six forwards are in the prime of their careers.  

Player HtWtAgeGPGAPTS PP SH GW S%
Milan Lucic 6-32282234161127 2 0 3 21.1
David Krejci 6-0177242771724 0 0 1 10.3
Nathan Horton 6-22292534111223 3 0 0 13.6
Michael Ryder 6-01923034101222 6 0 4 13.9
Patrice Bergeron6-2194253471421 3 2 2 8.1
Mark Recchi 5-10 195423461319 4 0 3 10.7
Blake Wheeler 6-520824348614 0 0 2 13.6
Zdeno Chara 6-9255333441014 2 0 0 3.7
Tyler Seguin 6-118218325611 1 0 0 8.5
Marc Savard 5-101913311123 0 0 0 5.3

But, Lucic's scoring stats must be viewed with caution.  He has never scored more than 30 goals in a season all the way back into junior hockey.  His 16 goals scored this season have been inflated by 4 empty net goals.

Ultimately, Boston may have a wild card in Tyler Seguin.  His high potential (second overall draft pick) means the 18 year old has a chance for dramatic improvement in the second half.  Giving this talent every chance to blossom in the second half of the season best serves Boston's playoff aspirations.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto is loaded with youth.  They have the youngest team in the NHL.  Their goal scoring is not far off the pace of Montreal and Boston.  Yet, they wait to realize the significant upside scoring potential on their first line.  Every forward they have under the age of 25 has a good chance of producing better scoring statistics in the second half of the season through natural development.

Player HtWtAgeGPGAPTS PP SH GW S%
Clarke MacArthur 5-11191253491827 3 0 2 15.8
Mikhail Grabovski5-111832634121426 4 0 1 13.3
Kris Versteeg 5-101822433101323 5 0 0 11.5
Nikolai Kulemin6-12252434121022 3 0 2 15.2
Phil Kessel 5-11180233412820 4 1 3 9.0
Tomas Kaberle 6-1214323411920 0 0 1 1.6
Tyler Bozak 6-118324344711 3 0 0 7.5
Dion Phaneuf 6-32142518156 0 0 0 1.8
Nazem Kadri 6-01772017066 0 0 0 0.0
Ultimately, the first line needs rapid development from Nazem Kadri and Tyler Bozak to find his form from last season or perhaps the addition of a veteran player via a player acquisition.

But, any improvement in second half scoring will go for naught if there isn't a dramatic improvement in goaltender performance.  Team defence has been excellent this season.  Toronto has third lowest Shots Allowed per Game average in NHL.

You can rule out 33-year-old J. S. Giguerre as the answer given his chronic groin problem this season.  Toronto's playoff fate now lies in 26-year-old Jonas Gustavsson's hands.  His late season finish last year showed us how well Gustavsson can deliver on his potential.  Now is his moment of truth.

Jonas Gustavsson Monthly Splits for Last Two Seasons
YearMonthGPWLT/OGASASVSV%GAASO
2009October512215139124.8923.22 0
November1043328282254.9013.220
December62129125116.9281.861
2010January1026132288256.8893.360
February101042824.8574.030
March871017222205.9232.060
April201176255.8873.400

October312078982.9212.360
November924222250228.9122.660
December724021153132.8633.780
Toronto Maple Leafs making the playoffs is not as unthinkable as most people want you to believe.  They have youth on their side.  In fact, first place in the division might be just as likely as the playoffs.  It will come down to who has the hottest goaltender.  If Tim Thomas can keep his hip healthy, he might be the hottest goaltender in decades.  In the end, Toronto's playoff hopes might come down to a show down between Jonas Gustavsson and Carey Price in the final game of the season.  If so, it will be one of the most watched games of the season.





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