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| In 1963, Clarence Campbell, NHL President, Introduced the First Amateur Draft |
Lately, the media has written a lot about how first round draft picks are critical to getting elite players. They have vigorously asserted trading a first round draft pick is tantamount to giving away the next Alex Ovechkin, Sydney Crosby, or Steven Stamkos, each being an example of a "super" elite player. This type of talk comes across as "being a little over the top".
However, I remember hearing similar sentiments back in the mid70s when Montreal Canadiens were hoarding first round draft picks and building a new dynasty. This gives us cause to take a closer look at NHL (National Hockey League) history to examine "super" elite players and drafting elite players in the first round.
First, allow me to explain how I differentiate between elite and "super" elite players throughout NHL history. I rely on 1st and 2nd Team All-Star honours to objectively categorize someone as an elite player. An honour first awarded after the 1930-31 season.
We can categorize any player who receives this honour as an elite player. A "super" elite player is simply identified as any player who received at least five 1st Team All-Star honours. This amount typically represents a player dominating his position during both his peak and non-peak production years (ages 24 to 26 for forwards).
After reviewing the data, two conclusions can be reached:
(1) Don't expect "super" elite players to be available in every draft;
(2) Since 1997 Entry Draft, Elite forwards are rarely available after the second pick.
Let's explore this further.
First, let's start by reviewing the "super" elite players. You will find the complete list below ordered by birth year. Young players who seem to have a chance of becoming a "super" elite player are included at the end of the list. To put it differently, Steven Stamkos and any young player receiving 1st/2nd Team All-Star honours before reaching their peak years (24 years old for forwards, 26 for defencemen and goalies) are included at the end.
"Super" Elite NHL Players - with at Least Five 1st All-Star Teams
Player | Pos | Number of 1st All-Star Awards | Number of 2nd All-Star Awards | Birth Year | Age When First Awarded 1st All-Star | Drafted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eddie Shore | D | 7 | 2 | 1903 | 29 | |
Bill Durnan | G | 6 | 0 | 1917 | 27 | |
Maurice Richard | RW | 8 | 6 | 1921 | 23 | |
Ted Lindsay | LW | 8 | 1 | 1925 | 22 | |
Doug Harvey | D | 10 | 1 | 1927 | 26 | |
Red Kelly | D | 6 | 2 | 1927 | 23 | |
Gordie Howe | RW | 12 | 9 | 1928 | 22 | |
Glenn Hall | G | 7 | 4 | 1931 | 25 | |
Jean Beliveau | C | 6 | 4 | 1931 | 23 | |
Pierre Pilote | D | 5 | 3 | 1931 | 32 | |
Bobby Hull | LW | 10 | 2 | 1939 | 20 | |
Stan Mikita | C | 6 | 2 | 1940 | 21 | |
Phil Esposito | C | 6 | 2 | 1943 | 26 | |
Ken Dryden* | G | 5 | 1 | 1947 | 25 | 14* |
Bobby Orr | D | 8 | 1 | 1948 | 19 | |
Brad Park* | D | 5 | 2 | 1948 | 21 | 2* |
Guy Lafleur | RW | 6 | 0 | 1951 | 23 | 1 |
Denis Potvin | D | 5 | 2 | 1953 | 22 | 1 |
Mike Bossy | RW | 5 | 3 | 1957 | 23 | 15 |
Raymond Bourque | D | 13 | 6 | 1960 | 19 | 8 |
Wayne Gretzky | C | 8 | 7 | 1961 | 19 | |
Chris Chelios | D | 5 | 2 | 1962 | 26 | 40 |
Mario Lemeiux | C | 6 | 4 | 1965 | 22 | 1 |
Dominic Hasek | G | 6 | 0 | 1965 | 28 | 207 |
Patrick Roy | G | 5 | 3 | 1965 | 20 | 51 |
Luc Robitaille | LW | 5 | 3 | 1966 | 21 | 171 |
Niklas Lidstrom | D | 9 | 2 | 1970 | 27 | 53 |
Jaromir Jagr | RW | 7 | 1 | 1970 | 22 | 5 |
Duncan Keith | D | 1 | 0 | 1983 | 26 | 54 |
Alex Ovechkin | LW | 5 | 0 | 1985 | 20 | 1 |
Mike Green | D | 2 | 0 | 1985 | 23 | 29 |
Dion Phaneuf | D | 1 | 0 | 1985 | 22 | 9 |
Evgeni Malkin | C | 2 | 0 | 1986 | 21 | 2 |
Sidney Crosby | C | 1 | 1 | 1987 | 19 | 1 |
Patrick Kane | RW | 1 | 0 | 1988 | 20 | 1 |
Drew Doughty | D | 0 | 1 | 1989 | 2 | |
Steven Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 1990 | 1 |
* Draft of amateur players who either were not on an NHL sponsored junior team or not on an NHL protected list of sponsored teams and their affiliates. 6 NHL teams had 52 sponsored junior teams along with up to 3 teams in lower classifications (junior B, juvenile, & midget) affiliated to each sponsored junior team. NHL teams maintained a protected list of 18 players from each sponsored junior team (and their affiliations) making up an 952 protected players ranging from ages 14 (maybe even lower) to 20.
When examining the list of "super" elite players from NHL history, a few things jump out at us:
(1) Expect one to appear once every two years;
(2) Historically, very few are acquired with first overall pick;
(3) There is a big gap between players born in 1970 and 1985;
(4) Players likely to become "super" elite are getting picked first since 2004 Entry Draft
Because of the disparity in peak performance years between forwards and other positions (defencemen and goalies) and our interest in taking a closer look at post 1997 drafts, you will find below a list reduced to just only "super" elite forwards.
"Super" Elite NHL Forwards - with at Least Five 1st Team All-Stars
| Player | Pos | Number of 1st All-Star Awards | Number of 2nd All-Star Awards | Birth Year | Age When First Awarded 1st All-Star | Drafted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Maurice Richard | RW | 8 | 6 | 1921 | 23 | |
Ted Lindsay | LW | 8 | 1 | 1925 | 22 | |
Gordie Howe | RW | 12 | 9 | 1928 | 22 | |
Jean Beliveau | C | 6 | 4 | 1931 | 23 | |
Bobby Hull | LW | 10 | 2 | 1939 | 20 | |
Stan Mikita | C | 6 | 2 | 1940 | 21 | |
Phil Esposito | C | 6 | 2 | 1943 | 26 | |
Guy Lafleur | RW | 6 | 0 | 1951 | 23 | 1 |
Mike Bossy | RW | 5 | 3 | 1957 | 23 | 15 |
Wayne Gretzky | C | 8 | 7 | 1961 | 19 | |
Mario Lemeiux | C | 6 | 4 | 1965 | 22 | 1 |
Luc Robitaille | LW | 5 | 3 | 1966 | 21 | 171 |
Jaromir Jagr | RW | 7 | 1 | 1970 | 22 | 5 |
Alex Ovechkin | LW | 5 | 0 | 1985 | 20 | 1 |
Evgeni Malkin | C | 2 | 0 | 1986 | 21 | 2 |
Sidney Crosby | C | 1 | 1 | 1987 | 19 | 1 |
Patrick Kane | RW | 1 | 0 | 1988 | 20 | 1 |
Steven Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 1990 | 1 |
From this list, you can see historically, "super" elite forwards are available about once every four years. However, there was a 15-year gap between Jaromir Jagr and Alex Ovechkin. In addition, Alex Ovechkin seems to be leading an unimaginable wave of great players. Is this a new trend, or simply a blip in NHL history?
Again, please take note at the recent success of teams identifying and drafting these players with their first overall pick. This requires a closer look. Please notice the chart below compiled of draft success for picking elite forwards in the first round.
We will ignore the Amateur Drafts from 1963, when first introduced, until 1968 because the best junior hockey players were not available. They were on protected lists of the NHL teams who sponsored their junior team. We also exclude the Entry Drafts after 2005 because the players are too early in their careers to be included in this assessment. In fact, there may be a player or two from the 2003 Entry Draft, such as Corey Perry, who will likely receive an NHL 1st/2nd Team All-Star honour within their career. However, it will only have a marginal impact on the results.
Drafting Elite Forwards - 1st/2nd Team All-Star Recipients
| 1997 to 2005 Entry Drafts | 1969-78 Amateur Drafts & 1979-96 Entry Drafts | 1970 to 1973 Amateur Drafts | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft Pos | Elite Fwds | Tot Fwds | Hit Rate | Elite Fwds | Tot Fwds | Hit Rate | Elite Fwds | Tot Fwds | Hit Rate |
1 | 5 | 7 | 71.4% | 7 | 18 | 38.9% | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
2 | 4 | 8 | 50.0% | 4 | 21 | 19.0% | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
3 | 1 | 5 | 20.0% | 3 | 18 | 16.7% | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
4 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 5 | 21 | 23.8% | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
5 | 1 | 5 | 20.0% | 3 | 10 | 30.0% | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
6 | 0 | 7 | 0.0% | 1 | 17 | 5.9% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
7 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 1 | 21 | 4.8% | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
8 | 0 | 7 | 0.0% | 1 | 15 | 6.7% | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
9 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 1 | 17 | 5.9% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
10 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 2 | 18 | 11.1% | 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
11 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 1 | 13 | 7.7% | 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
12 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0 | 19 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
13 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0 | 12 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
14 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 1 | 16 | 6.3% | 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
15 | 0 | 7 | 0.0% | 2 | 16 | 12.5% | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
16 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 2 | 13 | 15.4% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% |
17 | 1 | 5 | 20.0% | 0 | 16 | 0.0% | |||
18 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0 | 17 | 0.0% | |||
19 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 1 | 15 | 6.7% | |||
20 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 1 | 11 | 9.1% | |||
21 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0 | 10 | 0.0% | |||
22 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | |||
23 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 1 | 3 | 33.3% | |||
24 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | |||
25 | 0 | 7 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | |||
26 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | ||||||
27 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | ||||||
28 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | ||||||
29 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | ||||||
30 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | ||||||
3 to 16 | 2 | 82 | 2.4% | 23 | 226 | 10.2% | 8 | 36 | 22.2% |
Please notice, in recent drafts from 1997 to 2005, most teams were successful in getting an elite player when selecting a forward with a top two pick. This is dramatically better than the success experienced from 1969 to 1996. Conversely, only 2.2% of the forwards drafted after the top two picks in the first round become elite forwards. This number can still go up as mentioned previously. But, not by much.
Another extraordinary time for drafting elite forwards was from 1970 to 1973 that saw 11 of the 42 forwards drafted in the first round become 1st/2nd Team All-Stars. It must have felt as if it was raining pennies from heaven for NHL managers who hoarded first round draft picks. NHL teams had exceptional success with top ten picks. This along with "super" elite players Guy Lafleur and Denis Potvin drafted first overall heavily influenced everyone's perception on the importance of first round draft picks.
This success nose-dived from 1974 to 1978 when only 2 of 64 forwards selected in the first round (Mike Bossy and Clark Gillies) became elite forwards. Coincidently, this was the same time when NHL and WHA (World Hockey Association) had a bidding war over junior star players. Some of the very best amateur prospects during this time turned into fool's gold for some WHA franchises as they outbid NHL teams for the highest rated prospects such as Dennis Sobchuck, Cam Connar, Pat Price, and Ron Chipperfield.
From 1969 to 1996, a first round pick was important because you had a decent chance (at least 10%) of getting an elite player from any draft position in the first round. Perhaps, teams were making mistakes with their high picks making elite players available later in the first round. As a result, most teams held on to their first round draft picks regardless of where they expected to finish.
Starting from 1997, there seems to be a dramatic change to how teams performed in the Entry Draft where they now gobble up the best players with the first two picks. There appears to be an improvement in scouting where teams now rarely miss with their first overall pick.
The "You Can't Win the Cup without the Draft" Myth
Many hockey experts strongly assert you can't win the Stanley Cup without keeping your first round draft picks. This is simply not true. Philadelphia Flyers won two Stanley Cups (1973-74 and 1974-75) by trading first round draft picks. They acquired goalie Bernie Parent (1st Team All-Star 1973-74 & 74-75, Conn Smythe Trophy winner 1973-74 & 74-75) by including their 1973 1st pick (Bob Neely) in a package to Toronto Maple Leafs. Philadelphia also acquired right winger Reggie Leach (2nd Team All-Star 1975-76, Conn Smythe Trophy winner 1975-76) in a trade with California Seals by also including their 1974 1st pick (Ron Chipperfield) in the trade package.
Although Montreal Canadiens were notorious for collecting first round draft picks, they were not afraid to trade them or pass on getting more of them. When drafting Guy Lafleur first overall, they had an opportunity to acquire the second overall pick (Marcel Dionne) from Detroit Red Wings for Terry Harper, Phil Myre, and Claude Larose. Montreal passed on drafting Marcel Dionne because they already had enough front line centres in Peter Mahovlich and Jacques Lemaire. The following year, Montreal had the second overall pick from an acquisition with California Seals. However, they traded it to Atlanta Flames who used it to draft centre Tom Lysiak. Montreal was only interested in using the pick to acquire Denis Potvin.
Conclusion
Ultimately, an NHL manager uses the first round draft pick to acquire top hockey talent. It shouldn't matter if the talent is acquired using the draft pick or trading it. However, it does take shrewd foresight to comprehend what potential player you are passing on when trading the pick. Especially when the pick has a chance of becoming a top-two pick. But, building a team by blindly relying on top-two picks while expecting a never-ending annual parade of "super" elite player might be a little too simple minded. This will be especially true if hockey goes through another 13 year drought for this type of player.
Afterthoughts on How Scouting Has Improved
When NHL teams sponsored junior teams and had rights to the sponsored team's players and affiliated team's players, they focused on scouting players in their early teens. NHL teams scouted Bobby Orr when he was 13 years old. Boston Bruins acquired him by simply sponsoring his junior team. By age 14, he was on Boston Bruins protected list.
The sponsorship system ended when some junior team operators broke ranks in 1966, resulting in the NHL adopting the amateur draft as the primary way for acquiring amateur players. Part of this change included changing the age of eligibility for playing NHL hockey from 18 to 20 years old. Scouts had to adjust from scouting 14 to 17 year old players to scouting 19 year old players. Coincidently, NHL started its Central Scouting Service in 1976 as way of pooling scouting resources so financially constrained teams could benefit from better scouting.
Just as they were getting the hang of this new scouting system, the Amateur draft changed to the Entry draft in 1979 because of the merger with WHA. WHA had "underage" (under 20 years old) players (specifically Michel Goulet) prepared to make a court challenge on the age restriction. To avoid the court action, NHL "ended" the Amateur draft and came up with the Entry Draft, which included a lower age of eligibility, 19 years old in 1979 and 18 years old by 1980.
By the mid-80s, many NHL scouts were characterizing the drafting of 18 year olds as a "crap shoot". Elite players Brett Hall (born 1964, 1st Team All-Star 1989-90, 90-91, 91-92) and Tim Kerr (born 1960, 2nd Team All-Star 1986-87) were completely overlooked in the draft and signed NHL contracts as amateur free agents.
But, as before, NHL scouts started to adjust to the new reality. Then, communism started to crumble at the end of the 80s. Now, NHL teams had to learn how to scout and draft east European players.
Since then, there appears to be stability for the past two decades when it comes to scouting and drafting amateur players. Perhaps this is why a first overall pick is now a near certainty; a second over pick all is a 50/50 proposition; and every other first round pick is now a long shot for getting elite forwards.
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