How Brian Burke Gets Steven Stamkos

Steven Stamkos and Rick Nash

are the Only Players in NHL History

to Win the Goal Scoring Title at 19 Years Old

Other than sending an initial contract proposal, Tampa Bay Lightning does not appear to have made any significant progress in negotiating a contract extension with soon to be Restricted Free Agent Steven Stamkos.

Tampa Tribune published the last media report No Progress on Stamkos Negotiations on 10th of January.  Steve Yzerman and Tampa Bay Lightning may have a "Phil Kessel" situation on their hands.

Steve Yzerman wants to sign Steven Stamkos for Jonathon Toews money instead of Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, or Vincent Lecavalier money.  Leafschatter published an analysis and review of the situation Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed By Yzerman - Again!  It primarily focused on comparing Steven Stamkos to Jonathon Toews, Vincent Lecavalier, Sidney Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin when they were 19 and 20 year olds plus in the season they signed their contract extension.  In addition, the analysis included the best performances from other 19 and 20-year-olds in NHL history.

Today, we further explore how Steven Stamkos compares to the best 20-year-olds ever and expand into "blank ink" comparisons.  By "blank ink", we mean league-leading performances.  You will see it is ridiculous to suggest Steven Stamkos is comparable to Jonathon Toews instead of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin and might explain why Steve Yzerman had not received a counter-proposal from Stamkos's agent.

You will also see how vulnerable Tampa is to losing Steven Stamkos if they allow him to explore free agency as a restricted free agent and how Toronto's Brian Burke can make a qualifying offer impossible for Tampa to match.  We will also explore the likelihood of Burke making this offer.

Comparing Steven Stamkos to the Best 20-Year-Old in NHL History

Liseted below are the best scoring seasons by 20-year-olds in NHL history with 20-year-old Steven Stamkos's statistics from this season.  It includes Sidney Crosby's season where he missed 29 games due to injury.  You can find the best 19-year-olds in NHL history in Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed By Yzerman - Again!

Best Scoring Seasons by 20 Year Olds
Rank	Player	Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Wayne Gretzky	1981-82	Edm	80	92	120	212
2	Mario Lemieux	1985-86	Pit	79	48	93	141
3	Denis Savard	1981-82	Chi	80	32	87	119
4	Alex Ovechkin	2005-06	Was	81	52	54	106
5	Pierre Turgeon	1989-90	Buf	80	40	66	106
6	Joe Sakic	1989-90	Que	80	39	63	102
7	Dale Hawerchuk	1983-84	Wpg	80	37	65	102
8	Jimmy Carson	1988-89	Edm	80	49	51	100
9	Eric Lindros	1993-94	Pha	65	44	53	97
	Sidney Crosby	2007-08	Pit	53	24	48	72
	Steven Stamkos	2010-11	TB	49	37	29	66

Stamkos is trending to score 110 points this season which ranks 4th in this list.  He ranked 6th all-time in the 19-year-old list while Crosby ranked 2nd.  Wayne Gretzky is the leader in both lists without a close 2nd.  Only three players in both lists have black ink (signifying NHL season leader) for goals, assists, or points: Wayne Gretzky, Sidney Crosby, and Steven Stamkos.  Only Rick Nash and Ilya Kovalchuk led the NHL in goal scoring at ages 19 and 20 but lacked the point product for these lists.

Steven Stamkos led the NHL in goals scored at age 19 and is leading this season at age 20 compelling us to compare him to the best goal scorers at age 20 in NHL history.

Most Goals Scored in a Season by 20 Year Olds
Rank	Player	Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Wayne Gretzky	1981-82	Edm	80	92	120	212
2	Craig Simpson	1987-88	Edm	80	56	34	90
3	Mike Bossy	1977-78	NYI	73	53	38	91
4	Alex Ovechkin	2005-06	Was	81	52	54	106
5	Jimmy Carson	1988-89	Edm	80	49	51	100
6	Mario Lemieux	1985-86	Pit	79	48	93	141
7	Luc Robitaille	1986-87	LA	79	45	39	84
8	Eric Lindros	1993-94	Pha	65	44	53	97
9	Richard Martin	1971-72	Buf	73	44	30	74
10	Barry Pederson	1981-82	Bos	80	44	48	92
	Steven Stamkos	2010-11	TB	49	37	29	66

Steven Stamkos is on a pace to score 61 goals ranking him 2nd on the list after Wayne Gretzky.  His league leading 51 goals from last season is 4th best for all 19 year-olds.  Please notice, only Steven Stamkos and Wayne Gretzky are the only 19 and 20-year-old top goal scorers to lead the NHL in goals scored at this young age.

Black Ink and MVP Comparisons

Steven Stamkos's exclusive 19 and 20-year-old "blank ink" company of Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby invites a greater exploration of how young were the top players when they accomplished NHL Goal Scoring Leadership and received Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) honours.

Below, you see the youngest players to be goal-scoring leaders in NHL history.

Earliest NHL Goal Scoring Leader
Rank	Player	Age	Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Steven Stamkos	19	2009-10	TB	82	51	44	95
1	Rick Nash	19	2003-04	Clb	80	41	16	57
3	Wayne Gretzky	20	1981-82	Edm	80	92	120	212
3	Ilya Kovalchuk	20	2003-04	Atl	81	41	46	87
3	Bobby Hull	20	1959-60	Chi	70	39	42	81
3	Charlie Conacher	20	1930-31	Tor	37	31	12	43
7	Mike Bossy	21	1978-79	NYI	80	69	57	126

Only Rick Nash accompanies Steven Stamkos for the youngest player to be an NHL season goal-scoring leader.  Wayne Gretzky first achieved this status at age 20 with Ilya Kovalchuk, Bobby Hull, and Charlie Conacher.  Alex Ovechkin did not achieve this status until age 22.  The year Washington extended his contract by 13 years for $9.538 mil.

MVP - Hart Memorial Trophy Honours

Steven Stamkos has yet to receive MVP (Hart Memorial Trophy) honours.  However, he will be the 3rd youngest player in NHL history to receive it if he wins it this season.  Only Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby will have won it at a younger age.

Earliest Hart Memorial (MVP) Trophy Winner
Rank	Player	Age	Season	Team	GP	G	A	Pts
1	Wayne Gretzky	18	1979-80	Edm	79	51	86	137
2	Sidney Crosby	19	2006-07	Pit	79	36	84	120
3	Bobby Orr	21	1969-70	Bos	76	33	87	120
3	Eric Lindros	21	1994-95	Pha	46	29	41	70
5	Mario Lemieux	22	1987-88	Pit	77	70	98	168
5	Alex Ovechkin	22	2007-08	Was	82	65	47	112
5	Bryan Trottier	22	1978-79	NYI	76	47	87	134
5	Gordie Howe	22	1950-51	Det	70	43	43	86
5	Nels Stewart	22	1925-26	Mtl*	36	34	8	42

Yzerman's Problem in Contract Negotiations

Why is Steve Yzerman sticking to his guns on the $6.3 to $6.7 mil range for Steven Stamkos when Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby received significant contract extensions during their first "blank ink" and MVP season?  Frankly, Tampa placed Yzerman in an impossible situation when hiring him as a Manager.  First, Tampa should have worked out a contract extension with Stamkos during last season when he had his breakout year.  Yzerman was not yet the team's Manager.

The second reason involves estimating Tampa's budget.  If you assume they already operate at the limits of their financial budget, you will discover it to be approximately $57.1 mil when you add up their NHL and AHL salaries for this season.  Tampa already has $44 mil in contractual commitments for next season with 11 NHL roster and 16 AHL roster spots open.  This amount goes up to $50.2 mil if Tampa qualifies four of their NHL RFAs (Restricted Free Agents) and 12 of their AHL RFAs with the minimum required and budgets $800k for 6 other NHL roster spots and $65k for the 4 other AHL roster spots.

This leaves Yzerman with $6.9 mil in next season's budget for Steven Stamkos.  Yzerman is most likely taking his negotiating stance because his budget does not leave him with much alternative.  Frankly, Yzerman should simply trade Stamkos to Chicago for Jonathon Toews if he truly believes Stamkos is more comparable to Toews over Crosby and Ovechkin.  In all likelihood, Yzerman is posturing when claiming Stamkos is comparable to Toews.

Yzerman seems to be waiting Stamkos out until Stamkos has no alternative to accept his offer.  If by chance Stamkos receives an offer sheet for $9 to $10 mil a year, Yzerman can simply match it and deal with the potential $3 mil budget overage later in the season.  The overage can be up to $4.8 mil if Stamkos receives a "max cap" offer.

Steve Yzerman would have to move a player such as Ryan Malone, who is due to make $5.5 mil salary next season, to fix the budget overage.  His other budget options are Mattius Ohland $5.5 mil, Martin St. Louis $5.5 mil, and Vincent Lecavalier $10 mil.

Yvzerman's Exposure

This fallback plan has one hole it.  It may not withstand the pressure of a front-end loaded contract.  For example, a team can offer Steven Stamkos an 11-year $9.5 mil cap salary contract where it is front-end loaded with a $29.5 mil 1st year salary and $7 mil salary for each of the remaining 10 years.  Tampa Bay may not have the financial means to handle this budget overage.  Matching this qualifying offer might turn this team into the Winnipeg Jets within a year or two.

The Toronto Threat

Will Brian Burke pounce on the opportunity to scoop Steven Stamkos from Tampa Bay Lightning?  It will cost Toronto four 1st round draft picks.

My sense is Brian Burke prefers to find a first line forward in the $5 to $6 mil cap salary range.  However, he is having difficulty acquiring such a player and might have to resort to "Plan B".  "Plan B" has $23 mil in cap space available next season with 12 roster spots to fill.  When you factor in RFA resignings, Brian Burke probably has up to $10 mil in cap space next season to sign Steven Stamkos.  It goes up to $13 mil if the cap increases by $3 mil.

If Brian Burke is truly considering Steven Stamkos as a "Plan B" option, he must weigh it against the possibility of John Tavares being an RFA the following season.  New York Islanders is a woeful team.  It is a classic example of "tanking".  One of the biggest ramifications of tanking is players not wanting to play for the team.  Will the Islanders have this problem with John Tavares?  They certainly have it with Evgeni Nabakov.

The cap hit for signing Tavares in 2012 is most likely within $7 mil and would only cost two 1sts, one 2nd, and one 3rd round draft pick.  In addition, the Islanders are equally vulnerable to a front-end loaded contract.  It appears their budget is about $43 mil and will have at most $8.2 mil available in their budget for Tavares.  A front-end loaded contract with $27 mil in the first year may be too much for New York to match.

During the 2009 Entry Draft, Brian Burke did express his interest in John Tavares and brushed off anyone who thought the idea of getting John Tavares was absurd.  Perhaps, he already had this scheme in mind.  Will the new CBA in 2012 undermine this plan?

Equally interesting is the rumoured Tomas Kaberle deal with Tampa Bay, which fell apart in the final hour on 15th of August.  Reports had a trade worked out with Toronto sending Tomas Kaberle to Tampa Bay for Ryan Malone plus other elements.  Reports had trade discussions to the point where Ryan Malone had waived his no-trade clause for the deal.  But, for some reason, the trade fell apart in the final hour.  Did Brian Burke conclude in the final hour it will be difficult for Tampa to extend Steven Stamkos with Ryan Malone on their payroll?

Conclusion

All of this can end up as simple speculation if Steve Yzerman extends Steven Stamkos before the end of the season.  If the 2011-2012 budget is limiting Tampa's offer, it can be resolved by trading Ryan Malone.  However, Steve Yzerman may end up outsmarting himself if relies on simply matching any qualifying offer accepted by Steven Stamkos.  New York Islanders should pay close attention because they will be up next the following season with John Tavares.

Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed By Yzerman - Again! was posted on 28th of November, 2010.

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Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed by Yzerman - Again!

Steve Yzerman, Manager of Tampa Bay Lightning
Passed On Steven Stamkos When
Executive Director of Gold Medalist
Team Canada 2010 Olympic Hockey Team

If you have been following the news, you know Steve Yzerman, Manager of Tampa Lightning, will meet Toronto based agent Don Meehan, agent for Steven Stamkos, on Monday when Tampa Bay Lightning is in Toronto to play Toronto Maple Leafs, for their first face-to-face meeting over Steven Stamkos' contract.

First reports indicated Tampa thought they could sign Stamkos for $7 mil annually.  Recent reports indicate Tampa now believes Stamkos will sign within the range of $7 mil to $8 mil for seven years because they see him in between Jonathon Toews and Sidney Crosby.  Furthermore, they express confidence  in Stamkos agreeing to a discount for the good of the team and appreciation for agent Don Meehan's reasonableness and ability to persuade Stamkos to take a discount.

Whom is Don Meehan representing in this matter?  Steven Stamkos or Tampa Bay?  You would think Tampa Bay based on the media reports.

This reminds me of how Gordie Howe always got jerked around on his salary.  It got so bad; it became a hockey industry joke.  LeafsTV recently showed a late 60s replay game which included a between period interview of Detroit owner Bruce Norris by Hockey Night in Canada host Ward Cornell.  In this interview, Cornell made a vague reference to Howe's contract being a good deal for Detroit and suggested Norris must be pleased with it.  Norris concurred while both men could barely contain their smug smirks.

What was so funny?  Bobby Baun (141st in NHL scoring) was making over twice as much money as Gordie Howe (3rd in NHL scoring) in the 1968-69 season.  You can find listed below their statistics from that season.

Rk	Player	Pos	Ht	Wt	Age	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%
3	Gordie Howe	RW	6-0	205	40	76	44	59	103	45	58	9	0	6	283	15.5
141	Bob Baun	D	5-9	175	32	76	4	16	20	24	121	0	0	0	117	3.4

The disparity and injustice was outrageous.  Detroit paid Gordie Howe a paltry $45,000 while paying over $100,000 to Bob Baun.

It was a result of Gordie Howe getting brow beaten by Detroit and the hockey industry for over 20 years.  Detroit would throw Gordie Howe an occasional bone.  One time, as a signing bonus, Detroit gave Gordie Howe a team jacket for "free".  This event made its way into hockey lore as Gordie Howe "wanting" a team jacket instead of more money.

But, I digress from the question on everyone's mind..."How much should Steven Stamkos Get for his new contract?

In my opinion, Steven Stamkos should expect at least $10.6 mil when renewing his contract.  Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin presently receive $9 mil (in real money) for the season.  They agreed to this amount when the NHL cap was $50.3 mil.  In short, they agreed to receive 17.89% of the team's cap in salary.  $10.6 mil is now 17.89% of a team's $59.4 mil cap.  Coincidently, Vincent Lecavalier receives $10 mil  from a contract extension negotiated in 2008 when the NHL cap was $56.7 mil.  $10.476 mil is its equivalent in today's cap.  As for Jonathon Toews, it is difficult to factor in his $6.3 mil cap salary when he simply doesn't compare to Steven Stamkos.

Is Steven Stamkos truly an elite player?

To put things in perspective, we gathered the best 19-year-old scoring statistics in NHL history.  We also included Alex Ovechkin and Mike Bossy at age 20 because they could not play at age 19 in the NHL because of the lockout in 2004 and amateur draft rules in the 1970s.  To add further perspective, we included Vincent Lecavalier's and Jonathon Toews' scoring statistics when they were 19 years old.  The players rank (RK) amongst the NHL scoring leaders for that season is included in the first column of the statistics.

Top 19-Year-Olds In NHL Scoring
Rk	Player	Age	Tm	Season	GP	G	A	PTS ▾	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%
1	Wayne Gretzky*	19	EDM	1980-81	80	55	109	164	41	28	15	4	3	261	21.1
1	Sidney Crosby	19	PIT	2006-07	79	36	84	120	10	60	13	0	4	250	14.4
5	Pierre Larouche	19	PIT	1975-76	76	53	58	111	4	33	18	0	3	319	16.6
3	Alex Ovechkin	20	WSH	2005-06	81	52	54	106	2	52	21	3	5	425	12.2
8	Jimmy Carson	19	LAK	1987-88	80	55	52	107	-19	45	22	0	7	264	20.8
13	Mario Lemieux*	19	PIT	1984-85	73	43	57	100	-35	54	11	0	2	209	20.6
5	Steven Stamkos	19	TBL	2009-10	82	51	44	95	-2	38	24	1	5	297	17.2
12	Bryan Trottier*	19	NYI	1975-76	80	32	63	95	28	21	11	1	5	178	18.0
6	Mike Bossy*	20	NYI	1977-78	73	53	38	91	31	6	25	0	5	235	22.6
16	Dale Hawerchuk*	19	WPG	1982-83	79	40	51	91	-17	31	13	1	3	297	13.5
18	Ron Francis*	19	HAR	1982-83	79	31	59	90	-25	60	4	2	4	212	14.6
24	Steve Yzerman*	19	DET	1984-85	80	30	59	89	-17	58	9	0	3	231	13.0
20	Pierre Turgeon	19	BUF	1988-89	80	34	54	88	-2	26	16	0	5	182	18.7
33	Vincent Lecavalier	19	TBL	1999-00	80	25	42	67	-25	43	6	0	3	166	16.1
85	Jonathon Toews	19	CHI	2007-08	64	24	30	54	11	44	7	0	4	144	16.7

* Member of Hockey Hall of Fame

The numbers speak for themselves.  Steven Stamkos has the fifth best scoring record for 19 year olds in NHL history.  Sidney Crosby is second best to Wayne Gretzky.  Clearly, Steven Stamkos is only in the same class as Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin.  Any comparison to Jonathon Toews is simply an attempt to skew Steven Stamkos' value downwards.

To gain a better appreciation for Steven Stamkos' market value, compare his present season (2010-2011) to the seasons of other players when they signed their big contracts.  Contract extensions signed by Sidney Crosby July 2007; Alex Ovechkin January 2008; Vincent Lecavalier July 2008; and Jonathon Toews December 2009.

Scoring Record when Negotiating a Big Contract
Rk	Player	Age	Tm	Season	GP	G	A	PTS ▾	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%
1	Alex Ovechkin	22	WSH	2007-08	82	65	47	112	28	40	22	0	11	446	14.6
1	Sidney Crosby	19	PIT	2006-07	79	36	84	120	10	60	13	0	4	250	14.4
2	Steven Stamkos	20	TBL	2010-11	24	21	18	39	6	20	10	0	4	91	23.1
7	Vincent Lecavalier	27	TBL	2007-08	81	40	52	92	-17	89	10	1	7	318	12.6
35	Jonathon Toews	21	CHI	2009-10	76	25	43	68	22	47	9	1	3	202	12.4

Again, Steven Stamkos only compares with the elite (Ovechkin and Crosby).  He will take his performance above Crosby and Ovechkin if he continues his scoring pace.  Any comparison to Jonathon Toews appears to be simply gratuitous.

Perhaps Steve Yzerman truly believes Steven Stamkos is comparable to Jonathon Toews.  After all, much to the disbelief of many hockey experts, Steve Yzerman passed on Steven Stamkos when he was Executive Director of 2010 Team Canada Olympic Hockey Team.

To gain an even better appreciation for Steven Stamkos, you have to compare his scoring to the best 20 year olds in NHL history.  We whittled the list down to just the elite performers plus Jonathon Toews and Vincent Lecavalier.

Top 20-Year-Olds In NHL Scoring
Rk	Player	Age	Tm	Season	GP	G	A	PTS ▾	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%
1	Wayne Gretzky*	20	EDM	1981-82	80	92	120	212	81	26	18	6	12	369	24.9
2	Steven Stamkos	20	TBL	2010-11	24	21	18	39	6	20	10	0	4	91	23.1
2	Mario Lemieux*	20	PIT	1985-86	79	48	93	141	-6	43	17	0	4	276	17.4
6	Denis Savard*	20	CHI	1981-82	80	32	87	119	0	82	8	0	4	231	13.9
3	Alex Ovechkin	20	WSH	2005-06	81	52	54	106	2	52	21	0	11	425	12.2
29	Sidney Crosby	20	PIT	2007-08	53	24	48	72	18	39	6	0	4	173	13.9
41	Jonathon Toews	20	CHI	2008-09	82	34	35	69	12	51	12	0	7	195	17.4
100	Vincent Lecavalier	20	TBL	2000-01	68	23	28	51	-26	66	7	0	3	165	13.9

* Member of Hockey Hall of Fame

Given his present pace, you can only compare Steven Stamkos to the likes of Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.  Please notice two items.  First, the scoring percentage of Wayne Gretzky and Steven Stamkos compared to others.  Second, game winning goals scored by Gretzky, Stamkos, and Ovechkin.  Each indicating dominant goal scoring.

It appears Steve Yzerman and Tampa Bay Lightning has blundered by not negotiating a contract renewal  last summer with Steven Stamkos.  This blunder is compounded by low balling Steven Stamkos; slotting him in between Jonathon Toews and Sidney Crosby, and using a salary based on a lower cap from 2006-2007 to set an upper threshold.  It will take some deft handling on someone's part to ensure Steven Stamkos does not view these manoeuvres as personal snubs.  

Don Meehan can either vehemently disagree with the framework set by Steve Yzerman and Tampa Bay Lightning or tactfully wait for the end of the season when Steven Stamkos can leverage the market as a RFA (Restricted Free Agent) to receive his true worth.

Going this route will most certainly invite offer sheets for at least $10.5 mil a year.  Perhaps, even a max cap offer (20% of cap) of $11.8 mil  is possible.  This can be $12.4 mil if the cap increases to $62.4 mil.  It will also cost the team four first-round draft picks if Tampa does not match the offer.

An NHL manager rarely gets an opportunity to acquire a player comparable to Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.  It is almost unthinkable.  Someone is bound to be willing to pay the hefty price to acquire Steven Stamkos.  Below, is a list of teams with the cap space and financial means to do it.

Cap Space for 2011-12 Season Assuming $59.4 mil NHL Cap
Team	Cap Space	Roster	Notes
Montreal Canadiens	$25,313,691	9	Kostitsyn RFA Markov & Hamrlik UFA
Washington Capitals	$22,240,428	14	Semin & Laich UFA
Toronto Maple Leafs	$20,613,334	13	Kaberle & Giguerre UFA Schenn RFA
Edmonton Oilers	$19,400,000	14	Souray $5.4 mil in AHL
Los Angeles Kings	$18,806,667	16	Doughty & Johnson RFA Handzus UFA
New York Rangers	$17,550,000	13	Callahan, Dubinsky, & Boyle RFA
Chicago Black Hawks	$17,014,497	10	Seabrook RFA
Ottawa Senators	$16,512,500	15	Kovalev, Phillips, & Leclaire UFA
Detroit Red Wings	$14,841,289	14	Lidstrom UFA

Of course, this is all fruitless speculation if the media is correct about Don Meehan being a reasonable man who is able to convince Steven Stamkos into accepting a "discount" offer from Tampa for the good of the team.  Who knows, if Stamkos is lucky, Don Meehan might convince Tampa to throw in a team jacket for "free".


Post Script 23-Jan-2011


How Brian Burke Gets Steven Stamkos

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