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Steven Stamkos and Rick Nash are the Only Players in NHL History to Win the Goal Scoring Title at 19 Years Old |
Other than sending an initial contract proposal, Tampa Bay Lightning does not appear to have made any significant progress in negotiating a contract extension with soon to be Restricted Free Agent Steven Stamkos.
Tampa Tribune published the last media report
No Progress on Stamkos Negotiations on 10th of January. Steve Yzerman and Tampa Bay Lightning may have a "Phil Kessel" situation on their hands.
Steve Yzerman wants to sign Steven Stamkos for Jonathon Toews money instead of Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, or Vincent Lecavalier money. Leafschatter published an analysis and review of the situation
Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed By Yzerman - Again! It primarily focused on comparing Steven Stamkos to Jonathon Toews, Vincent Lecavalier, Sidney Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin when they were 19 and 20 year olds plus in the season they signed their contract extension. In addition, the analysis included the best performances from other 19 and 20-year-olds in NHL history.
Today, we further explore how Steven Stamkos compares to the best 20-year-olds ever and expand into "blank ink" comparisons. By "blank ink", we mean league-leading performances. You will see it is ridiculous to suggest Steven Stamkos is comparable to Jonathon Toews instead of Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin and might explain why Steve Yzerman had not received a counter-proposal from Stamkos's agent.
You will also see how vulnerable Tampa is to losing Steven Stamkos if they allow him to explore free agency as a restricted free agent and how Toronto's Brian Burke can make a qualifying offer impossible for Tampa to match. We will also explore the likelihood of Burke making this offer.
Comparing Steven Stamkos to the Best 20-Year-Old in NHL History
| Best Scoring Seasons by 20 Year Olds |
| Rank | Player | Season | Team | GP | G | A | Pts |
1 | Wayne Gretzky | 1981-82 | Edm | 80 | 92 | 120 | 212 |
2 | Mario Lemieux | 1985-86 | Pit | 79 | 48 | 93 | 141 |
3 | Denis Savard | 1981-82 | Chi | 80 | 32 | 87 | 119 |
4 | Alex Ovechkin | 2005-06 | Was | 81 | 52 | 54 | 106 |
5 | Pierre Turgeon | 1989-90 | Buf | 80 | 40 | 66 | 106 |
6 | Joe Sakic | 1989-90 | Que | 80 | 39 | 63 | 102 |
7 | Dale Hawerchuk | 1983-84 | Wpg | 80 | 37 | 65 | 102 |
8 | Jimmy Carson | 1988-89 | Edm | 80 | 49 | 51 | 100 |
9 | Eric Lindros | 1993-94 | Pha | 65 | 44 | 53 | 97 |
| Sidney Crosby | 2007-08 | Pit | 53 | 24 | 48 | 72 |
| Steven Stamkos | 2010-11 | TB | 49 | 37 | 29 | 66 |
Stamkos is trending to score 110 points this season which ranks 4th in this list. He ranked 6th all-time in the 19-year-old list while Crosby ranked 2nd. Wayne Gretzky is the leader in both lists without a close 2nd. Only three players in both lists have black ink (signifying NHL season leader) for goals, assists, or points: Wayne Gretzky, Sidney Crosby, and Steven Stamkos. Only Rick Nash and Ilya Kovalchuk led the NHL in goal scoring at ages 19 and 20 but lacked the point product for these lists.
Steven Stamkos led the NHL in goals scored at age 19 and is leading this season at age 20 compelling us to compare him to the best goal scorers at age 20 in NHL history.
Most Goals Scored in a Season by 20 Year Olds |
|---|
Rank | Player | Season | Team | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|
| Wayne Gretzky | | Edm | | | | |
| Craig Simpson | | Edm | | | | |
| Mike Bossy | | NYI | | | | |
| Alex Ovechkin | | Was | | | | |
| Jimmy Carson | | Edm | | | | |
| Mario Lemieux | | Pit | | | | |
| Luc Robitaille | | LA | | | | |
| Eric Lindros | | Pha | | | | |
| Richard Martin | | Buf | | | | |
| Barry Pederson | | Bos | | | | |
| Steven Stamkos | | TB | | | | |
Steven Stamkos is on a pace to score 61 goals ranking him 2nd on the list after Wayne Gretzky. His league leading 51 goals from last season is 4th best for all 19 year-olds. Please notice, only Steven Stamkos and Wayne Gretzky are the only 19 and 20-year-old top goal scorers to lead the NHL in goals scored at this young age.
Black Ink and MVP Comparisons
Steven Stamkos's exclusive 19 and 20-year-old "blank ink" company of Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby invites a greater exploration of how young were the top players when they accomplished NHL Goal Scoring Leadership and received Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) honours.
Below, you see the youngest players to be goal-scoring leaders in NHL history.
| Earliest NHL Goal Scoring Leader |
|---|
| Rank | Player | Age | Season | Team | GP | G | A | Pts |
1 | Steven Stamkos | 19 | 2009-10 | TB | 82 | 51 | 44 | 95 |
1 | Rick Nash | 19 | 2003-04 | Clb | 80 | 41 | 16 | 57 |
3 | Wayne Gretzky | 20 | 1981-82 | Edm | 80 | 92 | 120 | 212 |
3 | Ilya Kovalchuk | 20 | 2003-04 | Atl | 81 | 41 | 46 | 87 |
3 | Bobby Hull | 20 | 1959-60 | Chi | 70 | 39 | 42 | 81 |
3 | Charlie Conacher | 20 | 1930-31 | Tor | 37 | 31 | 12 | 43 |
7 | Mike Bossy | 21 | 1978-79 | NYI | 80 | 69 | 57 | 126 |
Only Rick Nash accompanies Steven Stamkos for the youngest player to be an NHL season goal-scoring leader. Wayne Gretzky first achieved this status at age 20 with Ilya Kovalchuk, Bobby Hull, and Charlie Conacher. Alex Ovechkin did not achieve this status until age 22. The year Washington extended his contract by 13 years for $9.538 mil.
MVP - Hart Memorial Trophy Honours
Steven Stamkos has yet to receive MVP (Hart Memorial Trophy) honours. However, he will be the 3rd youngest player in NHL history to receive it if he wins it this season. Only Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby will have won it at a younger age.
Earliest Hart Memorial (MVP) Trophy Winner |
|---|
Rank | Player | Age | Season | Team | GP | G | A | Pts |
|---|
| Wayne Gretzky | 18 | 1979-80 | Edm | 79 | 51 | | |
| Sidney Crosby | 19 | 2006-07 | Pit | 79 | 36 | | |
| Bobby Orr | 21 | 1969-70 | Bos | 76 | 33 | | |
| Eric Lindros | 21 | 1994-95 | Pha | 46 | 29 | | |
| Mario Lemieux | 22 | 1987-88 | Pit | 77 | 70 | | |
| Alex Ovechkin | 22 | 2007-08 | Was | 82 | 65 | | |
| Bryan Trottier | 22 | 1978-79 | NYI | 76 | 47 | | |
| Gordie Howe | 22 | 1950-51 | Det | 70 | 43 | | |
| Nels Stewart | 22 | 1925-26 | Mtl* | 36 | 34 | | |
Yzerman's Problem in Contract Negotiations
Why is Steve Yzerman sticking to his guns on the $6.3 to $6.7 mil range for Steven Stamkos when Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby received significant contract extensions during their first "blank ink" and MVP season? Frankly, Tampa placed Yzerman in an impossible situation when hiring him as a Manager. First, Tampa should have worked out a contract extension with Stamkos during last season when he had his breakout year. Yzerman was not yet the team's Manager.
The second reason involves estimating Tampa's budget. If you assume they already operate at the limits of their financial budget, you will discover it to be approximately $57.1 mil when you add up their NHL and AHL salaries for this season. Tampa already has $44 mil in contractual commitments for next season with 11 NHL roster and 16 AHL roster spots open. This amount goes up to $50.2 mil if Tampa qualifies four of their NHL RFAs (Restricted Free Agents) and 12 of their AHL RFAs with the minimum required and budgets $800k for 6 other NHL roster spots and $65k for the 4 other AHL roster spots.
This leaves Yzerman with $6.9 mil in next season's budget for Steven Stamkos. Yzerman is most likely taking his negotiating stance because his budget does not leave him with much alternative. Frankly, Yzerman should simply trade Stamkos to Chicago for Jonathon Toews if he truly believes Stamkos is more comparable to Toews over Crosby and Ovechkin. In all likelihood, Yzerman is posturing when claiming Stamkos is comparable to Toews.
Yzerman seems to be waiting Stamkos out until Stamkos has no alternative to accept his offer. If by chance Stamkos receives an offer sheet for $9 to $10 mil a year, Yzerman can simply match it and deal with the potential $3 mil budget overage later in the season. The overage can be up to $4.8 mil if Stamkos receives a "max cap" offer.
Steve Yzerman would have to move a player such as Ryan Malone, who is due to make $5.5 mil salary next season, to fix the budget overage. His other budget options are Mattius Ohland $5.5 mil, Martin St. Louis $5.5 mil, and Vincent Lecavalier $10 mil.
Yvzerman's Exposure
This fallback plan has one hole it. It may not withstand the pressure of a front-end loaded contract. For example, a team can offer Steven Stamkos an 11-year $9.5 mil cap salary contract where it is front-end loaded with a $29.5 mil 1st year salary and $7 mil salary for each of the remaining 10 years. Tampa Bay may not have the financial means to handle this budget overage. Matching this qualifying offer might turn this team into the Winnipeg Jets within a year or two.
The Toronto Threat
Will Brian Burke pounce on the opportunity to scoop Steven Stamkos from Tampa Bay Lightning? It will cost Toronto four 1st round draft picks.
My sense is Brian Burke prefers to find a first line forward in the $5 to $6 mil cap salary range. However, he is having difficulty acquiring such a player and might have to resort to "Plan B". "Plan B" has $23 mil in cap space available next season with 12 roster spots to fill. When you factor in RFA resignings, Brian Burke probably has up to $10 mil in cap space next season to sign Steven Stamkos. It goes up to $13 mil if the cap increases by $3 mil.
If Brian Burke is truly considering Steven Stamkos as a "Plan B" option, he must weigh it against the possibility of John Tavares being an RFA the following season. New York Islanders is a woeful team. It is a classic example of "tanking". One of the biggest ramifications of tanking is players not wanting to play for the team. Will the Islanders have this problem with John Tavares? They certainly have it with Evgeni Nabakov.
The cap hit for signing Tavares in 2012 is most likely within $7 mil and would only cost two 1sts, one 2nd, and one 3rd round draft pick. In addition, the Islanders are equally vulnerable to a front-end loaded contract. It appears their budget is about $43 mil and will have at most $8.2 mil available in their budget for Tavares. A front-end loaded contract with $27 mil in the first year may be too much for New York to match.
During the 2009 Entry Draft, Brian Burke did express his interest in John Tavares and brushed off anyone who thought the idea of getting John Tavares was absurd. Perhaps, he already had this scheme in mind. Will the new CBA in 2012 undermine this plan?
Equally interesting is the rumoured Tomas Kaberle deal with Tampa Bay, which fell apart in the final hour on 15th of August. Reports had a trade worked out with Toronto sending Tomas Kaberle to Tampa Bay for Ryan Malone plus other elements. Reports had trade discussions to the point where Ryan Malone had waived his no-trade clause for the deal. But, for some reason, the trade fell apart in the final hour. Did Brian Burke conclude in the final hour it will be difficult for Tampa to extend Steven Stamkos with Ryan Malone on their payroll?
Conclusion
All of this can end up as simple speculation if Steve Yzerman extends Steven Stamkos before the end of the season. If the 2011-2012 budget is limiting Tampa's offer, it can be resolved by trading Ryan Malone. However, Steve Yzerman may end up outsmarting himself if relies on simply matching any qualifying offer accepted by Steven Stamkos. New York Islanders should pay close attention because they will be up next the following season with John Tavares.
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