Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching The Big Fish

Brian Burke has done 3 of the last 18
"Big Fish" Trades in the NHL

Many of you are anxious to learn what Brian Burke will do for his next trade.  Three weeks age, we covered the various types of trades Brian Burke does in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1.  Two weeks ago, we listed the various players on the 50 Active Player roster who might go in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects.

Today, we cover "Catching the Big Fish".  It should give you interesting insight into what might happen and why.  We do this by reviewing all of the "Big Fish" trades since 2005 when the current CBA came into effect.

By "Big Fish", we are talking about top players in their prime and top prospects who have yet to enter their prime.  Ages 24 to 26 are prime years for forwards and 26 to 30 for defencemen and goaltenders.  Top prospects are players who were top five selections in their draft year.  We have taken liberties to include some trades that just miss on the criteria but we still consider to be "Big Fish" trades such as Chris Pronger (at age 31), Brad Richards (at age 27), Mike Ribeiro (2nd liner in Montreal), and two prospects selected 6th overall in their draft year.

You can see the trades listed in the table below.  Along with the date of the trade, we characterize what motivated the team to give up the "Big Fish".  We also include each players age in brackets.  Following the age, is the draft position for any player originally drafted in the first round of their Entry Draft.

Big Fish Trades Since 2005
Date	To	Big Fish	From	Price Paid
3-Aug-05 Tank 1st 2006 Erik Johnson	EDM	Chris Pronger (30) 2nd	STL	Eric Brewer (26) 5th Jeff Woywitka (22) 27th Doug Lynch
23-Aug-05 Salvage Depth I. Kovalchuk	OTT	Dany Heatley (24) 2nd	ATL	Marian Hossa (27) 12th Greg De Vries (33)
30-Nov-05 Tank 5th 2006 Phil Kessel	SJ	Joe Thornton (26) 1st	BOS	Marco Sturm (27) 21st Brad Stuart (26) 3rd Wayne Primeau (29) 17th
23-Jun-06	VAN	Roberto Luongo (27) 4th Lukas Krajicek (23) 24th 6th 2006 (Sergei Shirikov)	FLA	Todd Bertuzzi (31) 23rd Bryan Allen (26) 4th Alex Auld (26)
3-Jul-06 Salvage	ANA	Chris Pronger (31) 2nd	EDM	Joffrey Lupul (23) 7th Ladislav Smid (20) 9th 1st 2007 (traded) 1st 2008 (Jordan Eberle) 2nd 2008 (traded)
29-Sep-06 Salvage Playoff Run	LA	Jack Johnson (20) 3rd Oleg Teverdosky (29) 2nd	CAR	Tim Gleason (24) 23rd Eric Belanger (29)
30-Sep-06 Depth T. Plekanec	DAL	Mike Ribeiro (26)	MTL	Janne Niinamaa (31)
15-Feb-07 Playoff Run	PHA	Scottie Upshall (23) 6th Ryan Parent (19) 18th 1st 2007 (traded) 3rd 2007 (traded)	NSH	Peter Forsberg (33) 6th
18-Jun-07 Budget	PHA	Scottie Hartnell (25) 6th Kimmo Timmanen (32)	NSH	1st 2007 (Jonathon Blum)
26-Feb-08 Tank 1st 2008 S. Stamkos	DAL	Brad Richards (27) Johan Holmqvist (29)	TB	Jussi Jokinen (24) Jeff Halpern (31) Mike Smith (25) 4th 2009 (traded)
26-Feb-08 Playoff Run	CHI	Andrew Ladd (22) 4th	CAR	Tuomo Ruuto (24) 9th
26-Feb-08 Time Machine	SJ	Brian Campbell (28) 7th 2008 (Drew Daniels)	BUF	Steve Bernier (22) 16th 1st 2008 (Tyler Ennis)
20-Jun-08 Tank 5th 2009 B. Schenn	CGY	Mike Cammalleri (25) 2nd 2008 (Mitch Wahl)	LA	1st 2008 (traded) 2nd 2009 (traded)
27-Jun-09 Salvage	CGY	Jay Bouwmeester (26) 3rd	FLA	Jordan Leopald (29) 3rd 2009 (Josh Birkholz)
18-Sep-09 Cap	TOR	Phil Kessel (22) 5th	BOS	1st 2010 (Tyler Seguin) 2nd 2010 (Jared Knight) 1st 2011
31-Jan-10 Cap	TOR	Dion Phaneuf (24) 9th Fred Sjostrom (26) 11th Keith Aulie (20)	CGY	Matt Stajan (26) Niklas Hagman (30) Ian White (26) Jamal Mayers (35)
4-Feb-10 Salvage	NJ	Ilya Kovalchuk (26) 1st Anssi Salmela (25) 2nd 2010 (Jonathon Merrill)	ATL	Niclas Bergfors (22) 23rd Johnny Odua (28) Patrice Cormier (19) 1st 2010 (traded) 2nd 2010 (traded)
22-Jun-10	BOS	Nathan Horton (25) 5th Greg Campbell (27)	FLA	Dennis Wideman (27) 1st 2010 (traded) 3rd 2011

Typically there are at least three "Big Fish" trades each year.  So far, there has only been one this season.  Although "Cap" trades haven dominated the past year, the majority of trades have been either "Salvage" or "Tank" trades.

By "Salvage" trade, we refer to a situation where either a player does not want to remain with the team or the team has given up on the player.  By "Tank" trade, we refer to when a team literally gives away a top player with the intent of finishing low enough to get a lottery pick.  There can be a "Budget" element to a "Tank" trade.  But, never doubt the trading team having its eye on the prize (lottery pick).

The "Tank" trades are most striking because it involved St. Louis trading Chris Pronger to tank to the 1st pick to draft Erick Johnson at the end of the season.  Boston traded Joe Thornton to tank to 5th last to draft Phil Kessel.  Tampa Bay traded Brad Richards to tank to last overall to draft Steven Stamkos.  Los Angeles traded Mike Cammalleri to tank to 5th last to draft Brayden Schenn.

Whenever a 1st round draft pick player is traded, the trading team usually expects either a 1st round draft pick player or 1st round draft pick in return.  Dion Phaneuf and Jay Bouwmeester trades are two exceptions.

As a result, expect Nazem Kadri, Luke Schenn, Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf, and 1st round draft picks to be in play when Toronto has "Big Fish" trade talks with any team.  To avoid giving up these players, Toronto will have to target teams wanting to do a "Depth" trade with a 2nd liner because they have a top prospect waiting to take over.  Mike Komisarek, Colby Armstrong, Fred Sjostrom, and Matt Lashoff are other 1st round draft pick players who can be secondary players in a deal.

"Salvage" trade scenarios are brewing for players such as Shea Weber and Zach Parise.  However, they are more likely to be summer trades if they materialize.  Only one of the past five "Salvage" trades occurred at trade deadline.  The other four occurred in the off-season.

Teams wanting to do a "Tank" trade might be Toronto's wild card.  Such a team will be motivated to trade with Toronto because it can help lift Toronto out of a lottery pick position while they drop into one.  Edmonton, Ottawa, Florida, St. Louis, Buffalo, and Columbus are candidates for such a trade.  Of course, this list can grow as we approach trade deadline.  Ottawa trading Jason Spezza or Columbus trading Rick Nash would be similar to Boston "Tank" trading Joe Thornton.

Ultimately, it is up to the team holding the "Big Fish" to determine if and when the trade occurs.  All Brian Burke can do is be prepared when the opportunity arises.  In other words, have the cap space and trading assets available to capitalize on the opportunity.  It has payed off for him in the past with a Stanley Cup.

In the next two weeks, we will cover "Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the Time Machine Trade" plus "The Winnipeg Curse".

In Case You Missed It

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

After Thoughts

It is interesting how Boston Bruins recovered from the Joe Thornton "Tank" trade with free agent signings Tim Thomas, Zdano Charo, and Marc Savard.

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

Post Script 28-Feb-2011

Brian Burke has "Time Machine" traded Tomas Kaberle, Francois Beauchemin, and Kris Versteeg to acquire Boston's 2011 1st and conditional 2nd, Philadelphia's 2011 1st, Joe Colborne (20 years old, drafted 16th overall 2008), Jake Gardiner (20 years old, drafted 17th overall 2008), and Joffrey Lupul (27 years old, drafted 7th overall 2002).

He clearly has loaded up with assets which can be used in "Catching the Big Fish" trades.

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Shea Weber - Restricted Free Agent

Will Nashville Predators Be Competitive
Enough for Olympic Gold Medalist Shea Weber

Shea Weber, 6'4" 234 lbs 25-year old defenceman with Nashville Predators from Sicamous, BC (British Columbia) becomes an RFA (Restricted Free Agent) eligible for arbitration at the end of this season if Nashville does not extend his contract.  Nashville is meeting Weber's Toronto based agent while in town to play Toronto Maple Leafs on Tuesday night.

Weber currently makes $4.5 mil.  What can he expect for a new contract?  Does he commit to Nashville?  Or, go to arbitration for a one year contract in order to become an UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent).  Perhaps, his agent will invite offer sheets from other teams.

Shea is one of the best NHL defenceman.  He plays an elite level that garnered him regular shifts for 2010 Olympic Gold Medalist, Team Canada.

He can expect at least $6.5 mil when you compare him to other defenceman of his stature as shown in the table below.  $8 mil is his earning potential on the open market.  However, he may have to agree to a front-loaded contract from another team to get more than $6.7 mil.

Negotiating Shea Weber's New Contract
Player	Age	Team	Salary	Cap Salary
Duncan Keith	27	Chicago	$8.000	$5.538
Chris Pronger	36	Philadelphia	$7.600	$4.921
Dan Boyle	34	San Jose	$6.666	$6.666
Jay Bowmeester	27	Calgary	$6.600	$6.680
Dion Phaneuf	25	Toronto	$6.500	$6.500
Shea Weber	25	Nashville	$4.500	$4.500

Nashville is one of the budget conscious teams in the NHL.  However, it does have the financial means to offer $6.5 mil to Shea Weber.  Nashville simply has to forgo resigning 36-year old UFA Steve Sullivan who is currently earning $3.75 mil.

Nashville maintains its discipline to adhere to its financial budget.  For a while, they kept an individual cap salary ceiling of $4.5 mil for their top players (Legwand, Weber, Arnott, and Erat)).  This seemed to change last year with the trading of Jason Arnott where he resigned for $4.5 mil with New Jersey and the losing of Dan Hamhuis of Smither, BC to free agency where he signed with Vancouver for $4.5 mil cap salary.

With the savings, Nashville signed free agent Mathew Lombardi for $3.5 mil cap salary and renewed contracts for Patric Hornqvist ($3.083 mil cap salary) and Pekka Rinne ($3.4 mil cap salary).  Perhaps, this tighter financial approach was in anticipation of renewing Weber's contract.

Weber may choose to go elsewhere in spite of Nashville having the financial means to provide him fair market value if he finds their budget too limiting for the team to commit to winning.  Ultimately, he must be confident in his current teammates and Nashville's farm team in Milwaukee.

If Weber was to pursue restricted free agency and invite offer sheets from other teams, only 2 of the 11 teams (listed in the table below) with cap space and budget have a history of front loading contracts.  In other words, it will be hard to get more than $6.7 mil from the other nine teams.  Nashville has the financial means to match these offers.

Cap Space for 2011-12 Season
Team	Cap Space	Roster	Notes
Montreal Canadiens	$25,313,691	9	Kostitsyn RFA Markov & Hamrlik UFA
Washington Capitals	$22,240,428	14	Semin UFA
Toronto Maple Leafs*	$20,613,334	13	Kaberle & Giguerre UFA Schenn RFA
Edmonton Oilers	$19,400,000	14	Souray $5.4 mil in AHL
Los Angeles Kings	$18,806,667	16	Doughty & Johnson RFA Handzus UFA
New York Rangers	$17,550,000	13	Callahan & Dubinsky RFA
Chicago Black Hawks	$17,014,497	10	Seabrook RFA
Ottawa Senators	$16,512,500	15	Kovalev, Phillips, & Leclaire UFA
Detroit Red Wings	$14,841,289	14	Lidstrom UFA
Vancouver Canucks	$12,791,667	14	Bieksa, Sala, & Erhoff UFA

* Toronto currently does not have a third round draft pick for 2012.  Without one, it can only provide an offer sheet more than $7.7 mil which costs four first round draft picks.

Chicago and Vancouver are the two teams who have done front-loaded contracts in the past.  Chicago may not have the cap space to resign RFA Brent Seabrook of Richmond, BC if they provide an offer sheet to Weber.  Vancouver will have to lose UFAs Kevin Bieksa, Sammy Salo, and Christian Erhoff to free agency in order to pursue Weber.

Arbitration is Weber's best bet if he wants to leave Nashville.  He can expect a one-year contract close to his minimum $6.5 mil market value where he becomes an unrestricted free agent at its end.  If he chooses this option, you must wonder if Vancouver's signing of Dan Hamhuis was the catalyst.

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Post Script 16th of November 2010

Overlooked providing details on RFA compensation.  There are a variety of figures on the internet.  MyNHLTradeRumors.com has the most credible explanation.  You can read it at

http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2009/09/11/compensation-for-signing-a-nhl-restricted-free-agent/

Hopefully, Mark Easson posts an update for 2011.

Dion Phaneuf - Most Leadership Shown by a Leaf Captain

Dion Phaneuf Convinced Clarke MacArthur
to Sign with Toronto Maple Leafs

Dion Phaneuf has shown the most leadership we have seen from any Leaf captain.

Yes, we remember Mats Sundin, Doug Gilmour, Wendel Clark, Rick Vaive, Darryl Sittler, Dave Keon, and George Armstrong.  All of them great captains.  There were others before George Armstrong.  But, that was before our time.

Wendel Clark showed exceptional leadership in standing up for his team and teammates.  One of the best team captains in NHL history.  Doug Gilmour and Darryl Sittler led by example on the ice.  They never backed down from a challenge.  There was quiet leadership from George Armstrong, Dave Keon, Rick Vaive, and Mats Sundin.  They garnered respect from their teammates.

Dion Phaneuf instantly clicked with Phil Kessel, our franchise player, when arriving to Toronto.  He showed an immediate physical presence by laying out New Jersey's Zach Parise and fighting Colin White in the first period of his first game as a Leaf.  He has taken highly touted rookie Nazem Kadri under his wing by having Nazem as a guest at his summer cottage in PEI (Prince Edward Island).  Each a good sign of leadership.

However, Dion's ultimate demonstration of leadership was persuading Clarke MacArthur to sign with Toronto Maple Leafs.  Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf's Team Canada teammate at 2005 World Juniors, "followed" Dion Phaneuf to Toronto.  

No one has seen this type of leadership from a Toronto Maple Leafs captain.

Key players (Carl Brewer, Jim Pappin, and Brian Conacher) jumped ship from Toronto while George Armstrong was captain.  Dave Keon "followed" other teammates (eight of them) to the WHA.  At best, Mats Sundin held ranks with Tomas Kaberle, Bryan McCabe, Darcy Tucker, and Pavel Kubina, the infamous Muskoka five,  in a co-ordinated effort  to refuse to waive their no-trade clauses.

But, never, have I seen players follow a Toronto Maple Leafs captain to Toronto.  Some may argue Dion's leadership attributes are just intangibles irrelevant if his presence does not change Toronto's losing ways.

But, Toronto's record is dramatically better when Dion plays.  Toronto's record is 18-15-4 for 40 points in 37 games with Dion Phaneuf playing.  This works out to 88 points when pro-rated to 82 games.

In 2008-2009, Toronto was 17-28-11 for 45 points in the 56 games played before acquiring Dion Phaneuf.  This season, Toronto is 0-2-2 for 2 points for the games without Phaneuf.  In total, Toronto's record for the games played without Dion Phaneuf in the past two seasons is 17-30-13 for 47 points in 60 games.  You can pro-rate this to 64 points for an 82 game season. 

Dion Phaneuf's impact on the team is about 24 additional points over an entire season.  This works out to 12 more wins.

Some in the media believe the absence of Vesa Toskala is the main reason for Toronto's improved record.  Break down the games without Dion Phaneuf into games with Toskala and without and you will find 7-12-3 record for 17 points in 22 games with Toskala and 10-18-10 record for 30 points in 38 games without Toskala (and Phaneuf).  You will see both records pro-rate to a 64 point season.  When Dion Phaneuf was out of the line-up, Toronto was just as woeful without Toskala as it was with him.

The contractual decisions Shea Weber and Jeff Carter make this season may further hint at Dion's ability to draw other players.  Both of them were Dion's teammates on Team Canada's World Junior team as well.  They are due to be RFAs (Restricted Free Agents) eligible for arbitration at the end of this season.  If they choose arbitration, they will receive a one-year contract where they become UFAs (Unrestricted Free Agents) at its end.

Can Dion draw either one of them to Toronto if they believe they received a below market offer? Add in Weber growing tired of being on a team with lesser financial means to win and Carter weary of not getting the role he believes he deserves. If the answer is yes, it is a nice change from the past.

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Update 14th of November, 2010

Jeff Carter signed an 11-year contract $58 mil contract within hours of this blog post.  Scratch his name off the list.  However, Atlanta Thrasher Andrew Ladd and Chicago Black Hawks Brent Seabrook were also Team Canada 2005 World Junior teammates of Dion Phaneuf.  Nashville Predators will talk with Shea Weber's agent when Nashville plays Toronto this week.

Rating the Phil Kessel Trade One Year Later

Phil Kessel - Bargain at $5.4 mil Cap Salary

Let me start by saying the Phil Kessel trade between Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins to be a great deal for Toronto.  I have always held this belief from the day the trade was announced.  I do acknowledge a high price was paid with two first round and one second round draft picks.  But, it was worth it.

Like others, I assessed the trade by evaluating the two types assets involved in the trade: (1) Players; and (2) Draft Picks.  Lately, I have gained an appreciation for an additional asset involved in the trade but rarely mentioned.

At the start, I came to my conclusion with two premises.  First, Phil Kessel is a potential to be a 50-goal scorer.  Second, it is hard to get 50-goal scorers.

When Boston drafted Tyler Seguin with the first of two first round draft picsk from Toronto, I concluded comparing Phil Kessel to Tyler Seguin is not the best way to evaluate the trade.  The trade's success for Toronto depends on Brian Burke's ability to do another transaction similar to this one.  He must keep his salary cap clean, have draft picks available, and hope another team has problems resigning its elite player.

Phil Kessel is a Potential 50 Goal Scorer.  This, I believed from the very day he was traded to Toronto.  He was drafted fifth overall in the 2006 Entry draft and scored 36 goals at the age of 21.  Typically, goal scorers have their best years between the ages of 24 and 26.  You can expect a 50 goal scorer to have his first 50-goal season before the age of 27.  You have to look back 15 years to find  an NHL player who became a 50 goal scorers at a later age.

Too illustrate the significance of his 36 goals at age 21, I have created table, shown below, listing all the 50-goal scorers since the lockout season with their goals scored at age 21 with some exceptions.  Ilya Kovalchuk's goals are from age 20 because he was 21 during the lockout season and Steven Stamkos' goals are from age 19 because he just turned 20.

Goals at Age 21 - Phil Kessel and Post Lockout 50-Goal Scorers

Player	Goals At 21	Drafted	Draft Year	Cap Salary 2009/2010	Comments
Steven Stamkos	51*	1st	2008	$3.72 mil	Goals at age 19
Alex Ovechkin	46	1st	2004	$9.53 mil	52 Goals at age 20
Ilya Kovalchuk	41*	1st	2001	$6.38 mil	Goals at age 20
Dany Heatley	41	2nd	2000	$7.50 mil	50 Goals at age 25
Phil Kessel	36	5th	2006	$5.40 mil	Now age 23
Sydney Crosby	33	1st	2005	$8.70 mil	50 Goals at age 22
Jaromir Jagr	32	5th	1990	$7.00 mil	Now in KHL age 39
Jarome Iginla	28	11th	1995	$7.00 mil	52 Goals at age 24
Vincent Lecavalier	20	1st	1998	$7.72 mil	52 Goals at age 26
Jonathon Cheechoo	21*	29th	1998	$3.00 mil	In AHL at age 21

As the table shows, at age 21, he compares very well to the 50 goal scorers.  A few weeks ago, Toronto Maple Leafs coach Ron Wilson did predict Phil Kessel will score over 40 goals this season at age 23.  We have many real reasons to believe Phil Kessel will prove Wilson correct.  This includes his fast start of five goals in his first five games played.

A player is on the verge of becoming a 50 scoring when he scores 40 goals before the age of 24.  Below is a table slotting Phil Kessel with the other potential 50 goal scorers.

Goals at Age 21 - Potential 50-Goal Scorers 

Player	Goals At 21	Drafted	Draft Year	Cap Salary 2009/2010	Age at Start of 2010-2011
Evgeni Malkin	47	2nd	2004	$8.70 mil	24
Phil Kessel	36	5th	2006	$5.40 mil	23
Rick Nash	31	1st	2002	$7.80 mil	26
Eric Staal	30	2nd	2003	$8.25 mil	25
Thomas Vanek	25	5th	2003	$7.14 mil	26

50 Goal Scorers are Hard to Get.  You typically acquire them with a first round draft pick.  You have just over a 70% chance with the first overall pick.  Anything less and your odds dropp drastically.  In fact, without a top five pick, getting a 50-goal scorer from the draft is virtually hopeless.

Last season, only three players (Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, and Sydney Crosby) scored 50 goals.  Two of them did it for the first time!  Since the lockout, only nine players have been 50-goals scorers.  Three of them (Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Jarome Iginla) were traded before the age of 27.  Most notably, two of them (Dany Heatley and Ilya Kovalchuk) were traded from Atlanta Thrashers.

In short, if you want a 50-goal scorer, you should hope your team or Atlanta Thrashers have one of the top two picks in the Entry Draft.

To reiterate the point, only one NHL franchise has drafted more than three 50-goal scorers in its franchise history.  Pittsburgh Penguins has drafted seven 50-goal scorers with their first round draft picks.  The next best is three 50-goal scorers by Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, Winnipeg Jets, and Minnesota North Stars/Dallas Stars.  Interestingly, Montreal Canadiens only drafted two 50-goal scorers with its first round draft picks in spite of being notorious for acquiring first round draft picks from poor performing teams.  Edmonton Oilers never drafted a 50-goal scorer with its first round draft picks.

First round draft picks are money in the bank only when you finish dead last.  As shown in the first table, most 50 goal scorers are drafted first overall.  It is almost impossible to draft a 50 goal scorer without selecting the first forward in the entry draft.  A franchise cannot plan on having these coveted draft picks without being god awful and risk going defunct or trading most of its self-respect. 

Phil Kessel's Contract is the Hidden Asset in the Trade.  Phil Kessel was immediately signed to a $5.4 million cap salary five-year contract when traded to Toronto.  It is a bargain when you compare it to the 50 goal scorers and potential 50 goal scorers.  This type of players usually costs at least $7 mil in cap salary.

Steven Stamkos is the only player with a lower cap salary.  He is on an entry level contract which has a cap salary limit and expires at the end of this season.  Expect him to get at least $7 mil on his next contract.  Perhaps more than Ovechkin's $9.53 if other teams pursue this RFA.  He may even receive a max cap offer of $11.88 mil.  Max cap is the maximum amount a player can be paid which is 20% of a team's salary cap $59.4 mil.

Phil Kessel's $5.4 mil cap salary is a significant reason why Toronto currently has $4.7 mil cap space and will be well positioned to pursue elite RFAs (Restricted Free Agents) at the end of this season.  Steven Stamkos, Shea Weber, Jeff Carter, Zach Parise, and Brent Seabrook are some of the elite RFA who do not have their contracts extended.

As said at the start, the full success of this trade depends on doing another deal like it.  Adding another elite player to play with Phil Kessel will make Toronto Maple Leafs a force to contend with for many years.  Brian Burke has prepared Toronto to follow through with this pursuit by having the cap space and draft picks in place for off-season.  All without trading an ounce of self-respect.

Ecklund, Spectorshockey, and mynhltraderumors will have a field day with RFA rumours. Toronto's Cap Nation will follow them with great interest.  This is much better than joining Tank Nation to cheer your team to last place.

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Battle of the Fourth Defenceman - Will Leafs Make a Big Change to Defence?



Brian Burke Pursued Dan Hamhuis
This Summer to be
One of His Top Four Defencemen



If contracts mean anything, Toronto Maple Leafs already committed to three of their so-called top four defencemen.   Dion Phaneuf ($6.5 mil) and Mike Komisarek ($4.5 mil) have big cap hit contracts with four years remaining while Francois Beauchemin has two years remaining on a contract with $3.8 mil cap hit. . 

Although Luke Schenn is in the last year of his entry level contract, Leafs control him for an addition five years.  Tomas Kaberle is in the final year of his contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

So, two questions beg to be asked:

1. Who is the fourth top four defencemen?
2. Who will be the fourth top four defencemen for the long term?  

As of training camp, Tomas Kaberle is paired with Mike Komisarek.  This implies he will be one of the four top four defencemen.  But, there is a dark cloud of uncertainty hanging over him.  How long will he remain one of the top four defencemen if this uncertainty doesn't get resolved?



If Kaberle remains on the path to becoming a UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent), he may decide it is in his best interest to play on a team with high scoring forwards.  This may compel him to waive his no-trade clause.  He may very well be traded during the season.

Luke Schenn is arguably one of the best defencemen prospects in hockey.  Although he has not played close to his potential, he is at an age where a player's development can advance rapidly.  Do the Leafs see him as an imminent top four defencemen or a very marketable player?  Perhaps both.  None the less, he is in the final year of his ETC (Entry Level Contract) which forces the Leafs to decide whether to give him top four playing time or cash in on his marketability.

Maybe, Burke is buying time for a third option to develop.  As it stands, there will be many top defencemen who will be a RFA (Restricted Free Agent) at the end of the season.  Drew Doughty, Brett Seabrook, Jack Johnson, and Shea Weber plus some UFAs in James Wisniewski and Andy Greene.  Remember, Burke did try to sign Dan Hamhuis this summer.

Ultimately, when making the decision for this year, Burke must decide by the end of this season on whether to commit to someone in the declining years of his career; unrealized potential; or top players in the prime of their career.  This provides plenty of incentive to have Kaberle as a top four guy at the start of the year in order to move him quickly and then transition to Schenn so as to assess his development.

However, I have this nagging feeling that Burke already decided on a third option.

You are welcome to contact me (Leafschatter) at Twitter.

Post script.  You can find other interesting posts relating to this topic at TML Fan Fury; Blue Chip Prospects; and Mike In Buffalo at HockeyBuzz. Three of several excellent hockey blogs I have been reading.

http://tmlfanfury.blogspot.com/2010/07/what-if-burke-decided-to-trade-luke.html

http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com/2010/08/kaberle-stays-who-goes.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BlueChipProspects+%28Blue+Chip+Prospects%29

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=30207

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