Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Brian Burke Made Room for Tyler Bozak by
Losing Staffan Kronwall on Re-Entry Waivers

Brian Burke will have to make room for at least 11 new players on his 50 Active Player Roster.  He presently has 48 players on the 50 Active Player Roster.  The 11 new players will come from the 19 prospects/draft choices on his 90 Player Reserve List (which includes the 50 Active Player Roster), Entry Level free-agents, and NHL/Pro free agents.

11 new players is a conservative estimation because Burke added 13 last off-season and 12 the previous off-season.  Brian Burke likes to keep two spots open on the 50 Active Player Roster at the beginning of the season in order to have flexibility when making trades or signing free agents.

As a result, expect Brian Burke to move at least 11 players from the current 50 Active Player Roster between now and the off-season.  Who will they be?

Hockey talent and contract status will have a big bearing on who goes.  But, there are other factors.  A player's age, waiver exempt status, and re-entry waiver exempt status.

In short, Burke will categorize players as NHLer, Prospect, or Depth Player.  As the name suggests, NHLers are the players who he expects to be on the 23-Man NHL Roster.  Prospects are the Pro Players who are waiver exempt.  Depth players are the remaining pros on two-way contracts expected to play in the minors.  Brian Burke collects a special type of depth player, which requires a closer look.

Brian Burke collects what I like to call "elite" depth players.  Borderline NHLers can be another characterization.  He acquires them by offering high AHL salaries in a two-way contract when they are free agents.  For example, Mike Zigomannis and Tim Brent have $250k as the AHL salary and Joey Crabb and Danny Richmond have $200k as the AHL salary in their two-way contracts.  Normally, any AHL salary over $105k requires a player to clear re-entry waivers when recalled by their NHL team.  However, any player with at least 320 professional games and no more than 40 games on an NHL roster the previous season or no more than 80 games on an NHL roster the past 2 seasons is exempt from re-entry waivers.  Mike Zigomannis, Joey Crabb, Tim Brent, and Danny Richmond meet the criteria making them exempt from re-entry waivers.

In addition to getting the top AHLers who are exempt from re-entry waivers, this strategy of paying high AHL salaries makes it difficult for budget NHL teams to claim these players when placed on waivers for assignment to Toronto Marlies.  Their budget has little room for the high AHL salary if the borderline NHLer can't stick with their team.

Next season, Matt Lashoff will meet the "elite" depth player criteria.  Tim Brent needs to be assigned to the AHL for at least 3 NHL games to maintain his re-entry waiver exempt status.  Newly acquired Fabian Brunnstrom will not qualify for an "elite" depth player contract.  In fact, Burke may place him on re-entry waivers before the end of the season with the hope another team claims him at half NHL salary so Toronto has room for a college free agent signing.  Brian Burke did it two years ago with Staffan Kronwell to make roster room to sign college free agents Tyler Bozak and Christian Hanson.

A final consideration is an AHL rule requiring each team to dress at least 11 players who played fewer than 320 professional games in the NHL, AHL, and ECHL.  This is easy for Toronto to manage with the overall youth in its organization.

Below, you see a table listing the 48 players currently on the 50 Active Player Roster plus prospects on Toronto's 90 Player Reserve list who are eligible to play in either the NHL and AHL.  We list each player's age in brackets.  NHL roster players are in bold letters.  Players who will be exempt from waivers are in italics.  "Elite" Depth contract players are identified with an *.  Prospects who become unrestricted free agents if unsigned by this summer are identified with a **.  Junior players already signed to a professional contract are identified with a ***.  AHL players trending to have fewer than 320 professional games played by the end of the season are identified with an x.

	Under Contract	UFAs	RFAs	Prospects
1	J.Finger (31)	J.S. Giguere (33)	J. Mitchell (26)	M. Frattin (23)**
2	F.Beauchemin(30)	T. Kaberle (32)	D. Boyce (26)x	L. Komarov (23)
3	B. Lebda (29)	M.Zigomannis(30)*	D. Richmond (26)*	B. Winnett (21)**
4	M.Komisarek (29)	F. Sjostrom (27)	A. Foster (26)	D. Brodin (20)
5	C. Armstrong (28)	J. Crabb (27)*	C. MacArthur (25)	J. Flaake (20)
6	C. Orr (28)	T. Brent (27)*	M. Brown (25)	J.Blacker (19)***
7	M. Grabovski (27)		J. Rosehill (25)	J.Devane (19)***
8	J.Gustavsson(26)		F. Brunnstrom (25)x	K. Ryan (19)
9	D. Phaneuf (25)		R. Hamilton (25)x	B. Smith (19)
10	N. Kulemin (24)		T. Bozak (24)	S. Olden (18)
11	K. Versteeg (24)		C.Gunnarsson(24)	P.Granberg (18)
12	P. Kessel (23)		C. Hanson (24)x
13	J. Rynnas (23)x		B. Scrivens (24)x
14	S. Gysbers (23)x		M. Lashoff (24)
15	M. Mueller (22)x		B. Irwin (23)x
16	K. Holzer (22)x		J. Reimer (22)x
17	J. Mikus (22)x		L. Caputi (22)x
18	R. Slaney (22)x		G. Scott (22)x
19	K. Aulie (21)x		L. Schenn (21)
20	R. Greenop (21)x
21	D. Mitchell (21)x
22	N. Kadri (20)x
23	J. D'Amigo (19)x

The top candidates to go are in red.  You can expect Burke to shop Robert Slaney and Dale Mitchell where he offers to take in return an AHLer in the final year of a one-way NHL contract.  This will be similar to the Mikhail Stefanovich for Fabian Brunnstrom trade.  Effectively, Toronto gives a team budget relief in exchange for roster relief.  Ideally, Toronto will acquire an "elite" depth player candidate when making this type of trade.  A perfect candidate is Edmonton's Alexandre Giroux.  The 29-year-old has a $500k one-year one-way contract.  He is second in AHL scoring and meets the criteria for a "depth" player contract.

UFAs Tomas Kaberle, J. S. Giguere, and Fred Sjostrom are unlikely to return next season.  In total, this provides us with five strong candidates to be moved from the 50 Active Player Roster.  Finding six more candidates from the RFAs and remaining UFAs will be challenging.  Of course, this number goes up if you can't move all of the top five candidates.  I have taken the liberty of identifying the top ten candidates when considering which five to move.  These players might end up as throw-ins for a bigger trade.

Be prepared to see a steady flow of prospects and depth players moved each year from the 50 Active Player Roster to make room for new prospects.  The 50 Active Player Roster is a constraint put in place to prevent large market teams from having a competitive advantage in player development over budget teams.

Brian Burke has found a way to maximize Toronto's financial strength by augmenting draft choices with Entry Level free agents.  This allows him to package prospects to acquire players such as Kris Versteeg.  Expect more of these types of trades at a minor level such as the Matt Lashoff trade.  However, the rules of the game can easily change in 2012 with the next collective bargaining agreement.  This might especially be so when the small market teams see a disadvantage when compared to Toronto.

In two weeks time, we will explore the "Catching the Big Fish" trade in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3.

Post Script - Same Day

You can find frequent updates on Leafs Prospects and Entry Level Free Agents from Hockey Buzz writer Brian Huddle at http://leafnationweekly.blogspot.com  Follow Brian Huddle on Twitter @brianhuddle.

Post Script - 20-Jan-2011

In case you missed it last week Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

Post Script 2-Feb-2011

Follow-on to this post Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

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Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

Brian Burke likes to trade for
"big fish" such as Kessel & Phaneuf

It has been fascinating to follow Toronto trade rumours the past two weeks.  Toronto passed on one trade offer for Kris Versteeg while two separate deals for Ryan Parent and Jack Skille fell apart.  Shortly afterwards, Ryan Parent cleared waivers and was assigned to the AHL.  Reports had the deals falling apart because Brian Burke was trying to make them into bigger deals.

In all of this, it was clear; Toronto Maple Leafs fans want to know about the next trade Brian Burke will do.  In short, they want somebody to predict the future for them.

A good way to predict what someone will do in the future is to look at what he did in the past.  In the case of Brian Burke, you can characterize his past trades while managing Toronto in six ways:

1. Catching the Big Fish
2. Upgrading the Asset
3. Cleaning Out the Cap
4. Making Room for Prospects
5. Time Machine
6. Cashing In a Diminishing Asset

Catching the Big Fish

We know these deals as the Phaneuf and Kessel trades.  They come at us completely unexpected.  Suggesting there possibility invites ridicule.  Only Eklund from Hockey Buzz is bold enough to alert us of their possibility.

These deals involve top prospects who delivered elite performances before reaching their prime.  In the case of Phil Kessel, at age 21, he was Boston's leading goal scorer.  For Dion Phaneuf, at the age of 22, he received 1st team all-star honours.  Seeing these type players traded is unthinkable to most people.  Targeting and acquiring them are long shots.  Yet, Brian Burke has done two of these transactions in his first two years as Toronto's manager.

Expect this to be Brian Burke's top trade priority over the next seven weeks.  He has more than enough cap space to do this type of deal.  He is ready to part with quality players such as Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, and Kris Versteeg in order to catch that "big fish".

Upgrading the Asset

Turning 24-year-old winger Viktor Stalberg into 24-year-old winger Kris Versteeg by adding two prospects (Chris DiDominico and Philippe Paradis) typifies Brian Burke's asset upgrade trade.  Some people lament the loss of the two prospects.  The fact is, an NHL team can only keep so many prospects under contract with the 50 Active Player roster limit.  It makes it impossible to horde prospects.  Converting 32-year-old Vesa Toskala into 32-year-old J.S. Giguerre last year is another example.

Perhaps Tyler Bozak can be in play in an "Upgrading the Asset" trade.  Toronto can package quality prospects such as Jerry D'Amigo, Matt Frattin, and Kenny Ryan into such a trade.

Cleaning Out the Cap

The packaging of Jason Blake with Vesa Toskala for J.S. Giguerre is Brian Burke's famous "Cleaning out the Cap" trade.  He did it in conjunction with the Dion Phaneuf "Catching the Big Fish" trade to make cap room for Phaneuf and clean out the cap three years out.  Similarly, trading Pavel Kubina for Garnet Exelby created cap space to sign Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin.

Toronto has tremendous cap space.  According to capgeek, there is room to acquire a contract just over $7.538 mil.  This number goes up for Toronto by just over $83k each day.  It will be up to $9.942 mil by the end of January and $16.333 mil by trade deadline.  Toronto has no need for a "Cleaning Out the Cap" trade for this trade deadline period.  But, such a trade can signal an intention to do something "big" during the summer.

Making Room for Prospects

Toronto acquired Matt Lashoff (Boston's 2005 1st round pick) for Stefano Giliati and Alex Berry last August.  Two players least likely to ever make the NHL.  Why?  What happened?

Matt Lashoff is on a one-way contract of $550k and was unlikely to make Tampa's NHL roster.  Tampa's budget is so tight they can't afford to pay $550k to an AHLer.  For Toronto to help Tampa with its budget, Tampa had to help Toronto.  Toronto had 47 spots in its 50 player active roster filled while expecting to add Christian Hanson and Jerry D'Amigo.  Moving both Giliati and Berry allowed Toronto to resign Hanson and add D'Amigo while leaving two spots open for either the trade deadline, college free agent signings, or signing Matt Frattin.

In all likelihood, the deal with Vancouver for Ryan Parent (Nashville's 2005 1st round pick) probably fell apart because Brian Burke would take Ryan Parent's one-way $900k contract only if Vancouver took two low-level prospects such as Dale Mitchell and Robert Slaney in return.

You can characterize trading Jiri Tlusty for junior draft choice Philippe Paradis in the same manner.  It opened up a spot on the the 50 Active Player roster which was used when signing college free agents Brayden Irwin and Ben Scrivens.  In addition, Jiri Tlusty was going to lose his waiver exempt status at the end of that season.  Similarly, Luca Caputi will lose his waiver exempt status at the end of this season.

Time Machine

Trading 21-year-old Jiri Tlusty for 19-year-old Philippe Paradis is an example of a "Time Machine" trade where you convert an asset into a younger asset.  Brian Burke has been trying to do this type of trade with Tomas Kaberle without success.

Coincidently, I have been informed Tomas Kaberle has approved two teams for trade and rejected another two.  It will be interesting to see if Brian Burke can finally pull off a "Time Machine" trade with Tomas Kaberle.

Cashing In a Diminishing Asset

Trading an imminent UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent) for a draft pick or perhaps a prospect can salvage a difficult situation with the player.  The team does not want to extend the player's contract and tries to make the best of it.  Nik Antropov, Dominic Moore, Alexei Ponikoravsky, and Lee Stempniak are Brian Burke examples of such trades.  

Perhaps, Tomas Kaberle and J.S. Giguerre will fall into this category if they waive their no-trade-clause.  However, in a recent radio interview, Brian Burke made it clear he is looking for players.  Not more 2nd round draft picks.

The Stanley Cup Ring Effect

This year, Brian Burke has three assets who have been on a Stanley Cup winning team: Kris Versteeg, Francois Beauchemin, and J.S. Giguerre.  J.S. Giguerre is also a Conn Smythe trophy award winner in 2002-03 for being most valuable player in the playoffs.  These are players coveted by Cup Contenders.  Expect them to be in play at trade deadline.

Don't be surprised if Brian Burke uses these players to target top prospects such as Brayden Schenn and James Van Riemsdyk.  Philadelphia has a most peculiar cap problem.  They have $3.364 mil cap space left on next year's cap.  They can not acquire a player whose contract causes them to exceed next year's cap.  This might be a major reason for Philadelphia trying to outbid everyone on Jamie Langenbrunner.

The Cap/Budget Effect

One characteristic you will find in each major deal done by Brian Burke is a trading partner with salary cap or budget problems.  You should not be surprised to see the same result over the next seven weeks.  

Conclusion

Brian Burke and Toronto Maple Leafs fans may not be on the same page.  You are probably looking for change.  Brian Burke is looking for improvement.  He specifically wants to improve the first line.  He may surprise you by not doing any deals at all if no improvements are made available.  After all, why should he give another team cap or budget relief without receiving anything of significance in return?

Post Script 18-Jan-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Post Script 2-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching The Big Fish

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

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Exploring Brian Burke's Christmas Trade Freeze

Is Brian Burke Planning to Trade a Defenceman
when Dion Phaneuf Returns by 14th of December

Brian Burke's Christmas trade freeze is fast approaching.  The official NHL Christmas trade freeze is from 19th of December until 29th of December.  Traditionally, Brian Burke starts his trade freeze ten days earlier.  This makes it 9th of December by my calculation.  However, media reports suggest it can go into effect as late as 14th of December for this season.

Reports indicate a trade is unlikely by this date.  No one expects any chance of a blockbuster deal.  If a trade happens, it will be either a cap relief deal or a manager "selling low" on a high potential player playing poorly while approaching the age of 24.  Most hockey people expect prospects to have their breakout season by age 24.  Diminished play at this time might be cause to salvage whatever value remains with the prospect.

Boston Bruins is the only cap strapped team compelled to move cap salary because of the imminent return of Marco Sturm from LTIR (Long Term Injury Reserve).  It is doubtful New Jersey will address its cap situation until February when faced with the return of Zach Parise from LTIR.

Some teams may move prospects no longer in prominent roles in order to address shortcomings.  Rumours have San Jose wanting a defenceman and willing to part with Devin Setoguchi.  Atlanta manager, Rick Dudley, scouted the past two Toronto games.  Atlanta, overloaded with big young forwards, can use a good young affordable defenceman. Reports have Joffrey Lupul returning today from LTIR to Anaheim Ducks active playing roster.  If so, they need to move a player to comply with the 23 active player limit.  Anaheim's Kyle Chipchura must clear waivers if he is the odd man out for assignment to AHL.

Last night, Carl Gunnarsson lost his waiver exempt status when playing his 60th career NHL game.  Keith Aulie is the only defenceman with waiver exempt status.  Which defenceman will Brian Burke move and how when Dion Phaneuf returns by the expected 14th of December?  Toronto also opened up another spot on its 50 player active roster by recently assigning Mikhail Stefanovich to the KHL.

In my opinion, Brian Burke will target young players with upside to help address shortcomings in size and power play performance.  I doubt he will acquire a player in his 30s or does a pure cap dump deal.  He has enough building blocks to focus on adding to them or simply upgrading.

Blake Wheeler

Position: RW

Shoots: Right

Height: 6-5    Weight: 208 lbs.
Cap Salary: $2.2 mil

Born: August 31, 1986 in Robbinsdale, Minnesota

Drafted by Phoenix in 1st round (5th overall) of 2004 NHL Entry Draft.

Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI	ATOI
2008-09	22	Boston Bruins	NHL	81	21	24	45	36	46	16	3	2	3	150	14.0	1109	13:41
2009-10	23	Boston Bruins	NHL	82	18	20	38	-4	53	14	3	1	2	159	11.3	1295	15:47
2010-11	24	Boston Bruins	NHL	25	6	4	10	-1	14	6	0	0	1	44	13.6	390	15:36
Career		3 Seasons	NHL	188	45	48	93	31	113	36	6	3	6	353	12.7	2794	14:52

This is not a case of Peter Chiarelli selling low.  Blake Wheeler may simply not fit into Boston's cap situation.  He is an RFA at the end of the year.  Agent can argue Wheeler is worth more than $2.2 mil if Boston assigns Michael Ryder or Marco Sturm to the AHL to make cap room for Wheeler.

Not having the breakout year people expect from a 24 year old which is probably due to playing mostly on the third line.  His situation is similar to Clarke MacArthur's situation before joining the Leafs.  It is hard for Boston to justify paying a third line player $2.2 mil when each top six forward receives approximately $4 mil.  

Wheeler played with Phil Kessel at University of Minnesota and Team USA World Juniors.  Expect Peter Chiarelli to ask for a good draft pick for Blake Wheeler.  Chiarelli has shown he prefers to move Marco Sturm to resolve cap problem.  Expect Mark Stuart ($1.675 mil cap salary) moved and replaced by a cap friendly defenceman to close the $3.2 gap if Boston moves Blake Wheeler as cap relief.

Devin Setoguchi

Position: RW

Shoots: Right

Height: 6-0    Weight: 200 lbs.
Cap Salary: $1.8 mil

Born: January 1, 1987 in Taber, Alberta

Drafted by San Jose in 1st round (8th overall) of 2005 NHL Entry Draft.

Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI	ATOI
2007-08	20	San Jose Sharks	NHL	44	11	6	17	6	8	8	3	0	2	105	10.5	627	14:15
2008-09	21	San Jose Sharks	NHL	81	31	34	65	16	25	20	11	0	3	246	12.6	1313	16:13
2009-10	22	San Jose Sharks	NHL	70	20	16	36	0	19	12	8	0	4	165	12.1	1071	15:18
2010-11	23	San Jose Sharks	NHL	21	2	5	7	-7	17	1	1	0		46	4.3	294	13:60
Career		4 Seasons	NHL	216	64	61	125	15	69	41	23	0	9	562	11.4	3305	15:18

San Jose moving Devin Setoguchi will simply be a case of selling low.  Scoring dropped dramatically when  ice team with Joe Thornton reduced because of Dany Heatley acquisition.  He showed tremendous promise at age 20 by scoring 31 goals plus good power play performance.  Scoring percentage from previous years suggest this season simply an off-season.

Rumour has San Jose interested in Francois Beauchemin.  If true, San Jose will have to dip into its bonus cushion to make cap space to acquire Beauchemin for Setoguchi.

Nick Foligno

Position: LW

Shoots: Left

Height: 6-0    Weight: 209 lbs.
Cap Salary: $1.2 mil

Born: October 31, 1987 in Buffalo, New York

Drafted by Ottawa in 1st round (28th overall) of 2006 NHL Entry Draft.

Season	Age	Team	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI	ATOI
2007-08	19	Ottawa Senators	NHL	45	6	3	9	0	20	6	0	0	0	44	13.6	412	9:10
2008-09	20	Ottawa Senators	NHL	81	17	15	32	-10	59	10	7	0	2	145	11.7	1108	13:41
2009-10	21	Ottawa Senators	NHL	61	9	17	26	6	53	7	2	0	2	83	10.8	873	14:19
2010-11	22	Ottawa Senators	NHL	27	1	5	6	-4	12	1	0	0		42	2.4	388	14:22
Career		4 Seasons	NHL	214	33	40	73	-8	144	24	9	0	4	314	10.5	2781	12:60

Ottawa Manager, Bryan Murray, wants to make a big deal to shake up his team.  Only Nick Foligno and Pete Regin interest most teams.  Murray does not want to trade either player.  However, Murray might have to change his thinking in order to shake things up.  

Bobby Butler, rookie free agent signing, was called up yesterday by Ottawa.  A strong performance by him might shrink the halo sitting over Foligno and make Murray more open to moving Foligno.

Like Setoguchi, Foligno's scoring percentage history indicates this season may simply be an off-season.  He showed good power play performance two seasons ago.  Ottawa was one of the final two teams in the hunt for Tyler Bozak.  Perhaps Brian Burke and Brian Murray might agree a change in scenario might be beneficial for both players and their respective teams.

Conclusion

It will be a coup for Brian Burke to acquire a player who was a first-round draft pick but in the middle of a disappointing season.  You do not get many opportunities to buy low on high potential players.  Especially as they approach the peak years of their career.  Of course, these players are not "sure bets".  But, they are good investments with potential for high yields.

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