Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

"Time Machine" Trades
Usually Involve Budget Teams

"Tomas Kaberle and the 'Time Machine' Trade" is part of a series of "Brian Burke's Next Trade" posts:

1. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1
2. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects
3. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish

In essence, a "Time Machine" trade is where you trade a player in his declining playing years (when he is past 30 years old) for a player who will be part of your team's core in the immediate near future.  Presently, Tomas Kaberle is 32 years old.

Brian Burke has been trying for the past two years to pull off a "Time Machine" trade involving Tomas Kaberle.  He thought he had one with Boston Bruins before the 2009-10 season.  However, there was a significant misunderstanding.  Brian Burke thought Boston agreed to send Phil Kessel and its 2009 1st round draft pick for Tomas Kaberle.  Peter Chiarelli, Boston's Manager, thought he traded Phil Kessel for Tomas Kaberle and Toronto's 2009 1st round draft pick.

There was a reported trade with Philadelphia vetoed by Tomas Kaberle prior to Brian Burke arriving to Toronto.  It was alleged Cliff Fletcher, Toronto's Manager at the time, reached agreement with Philadelphia agreed to send 29 year-old Tomas Kaberle for 22 year-old Jeff Carter and Philadephia's  2008 1st round pick.  Tomas Kaberle has a conditional NTC (No Trade Clause) in his contract where it goes dormant during the summer when Toronto fails to make the playoffs.

Why has it been so difficult to trade Tomas Kaberle?  What can you expect in return for him?  What strategy should Brian Burke use to trade him?

History is always a good starting point to find possible answers to these questions.  Below is a list of all "Time Machine" trades since the lockout involving players older than 30 who have been All-Stars (representing their team at the NHL All-Star game) and Olympic Team players.  The ages of the players involved in the trade are in brackets.  Players who were 1st round drafts picks have their draft position listed after their age.  Highlighted in yellow are "Time Machine" trades that appear to be successful in yielding younger players.  Past Hart Trophy winners are in bold letters.

"Time Machine" Trades Since the Lockout
Date	Players Traded To		Players Acquired By
15-Nov-05	CBJ	Sergei Fedorov (35) 5th 2006 (Maxime Frechette)	ANA	Francois Beauchemin (25) Tyler Wright (32) 12th
30-Jan-06	CAR	Doug Weight (35) Erkki Rajamaki (26)	STL	1st 2006 (upgrade trade)               (Patrik Bergland) Mike Zigomannis (24) Jesse Boulerice (27) Magnus Kahnberg (25)
16-Dec-06	PHA	Alexei Zhitnik (33)	NYI	Freddie Meyer (26) 3rd 2007 (Mark Katic)
14-Feb-07	ATL	Alexei Zhitnik (33)	PHA	Braydon Coburn (21) 8th
15-Feb-07	NAS	Peter Forsberg (33) 5th	PHA	Scottie Upshall (23) 6th Ryan Parent (19) 18th 1st 2007 (traded for players)               (Scott Hartnell)               (Kimmo Timanen) 3rd 2007 (traded)
27-Feb-07	SJ	Bill Guerin (36)	STL	Ville Nieminen (29) 1st 2007 (David Perron)
27-Feb-07	NYI	Ryan Smyth (30) 6th	EDM	Robert Nilsson (21) 15th Ryan O'Marra (19) 15th 1st 2007 (Alex Plante)
22-Jun-07	FLA	Tomas Vokoun (31)	NAS	1st 2008 (upgrade trade)               (Colin Wilson) 2nd 2007 (Nick Spaling) 2nd 2008 (traded)
14-Dec-07	ANA	Doug Weight (37) Michal Birner (21) 7th 2007 (Paul Karpowich)	STL	Andy McDonald (30)
26-Feb-08	COL	Adam Foote (36)	CBJ	1st 2008 (traded for players)               (RJ Umberger) 4th 2008 (David Savard)
29-Jun-08	Edm	Lubomir Visnovsky (32)	LA	Jarret Stoll (26) Matt Greene (25)
26-Jun-09	PHA	Chris Pronger (34) 2nd Ryan Dingle (25)	ANA	Joffrey Lupul (26) 7th Luca Sbisa (20) 19th 1st 2009 (traded for picks)               (Kyle Palmieri)               (Matt Clark) 1st 2010 (Emerson Etem)
3-Jul-09	LA	Ryan Smyth (33) 6th	COL	Kyle Quincey (24) Tom Preissing (30) 5th 2010 (Luke Walker)
3-Mar-10	ANA	Lubomir Visnovsky (33)	EDM	Ryan Whitney (26) 5th 6th 2010 (Brandon Davidson)
19-Jun-10	NJ	Jason Arnott (35) 7th	NAS	2nd 2011 Matt Halischuk (22)
6-Jan-11	DAL	Jamie Langenbrunner (35)	NJ	3rd 2011 (conditonal 2nd)

When reviewing these trades you will notice a few things:

1. Budget teams typically acquire "Time Machine" trade players.
2. "Time Machine" trades are usually done as the trade deadline approaches.
3. Philadelphia Flyers have history of doing "Time Machine" trades.
4. Except for the Flyers trade, returns in "Time Machine" trades have been weak in past three seasons.
5. Boston Bruins do not participate in "Time Machine" trades.

It makes sense for budget teams to seek out "Time Machine" trades when making a cup run.  This is there only chance to acquire these types of players.  Their budgets simply don't have room to have these large salaries for a complete season.  As a result, they are not in the market to sign them as free agents.

Here are the ramifications on Burke's quest to "Time Machine" trade Tomas Kaberle:

1. Market probably reduced to just Philadelphia because of Kaberle's NTC (No Trade Clause).  Doubtful Kaberle waives it for a budget team.
2. Philadelphia only has $5.064 mil room in next year's cap to extend Kaberle.  Getting a contract extension as part of the trade is the rumoured requirement for Kaberle to waive his NTC.

"Time Machine" trading Tomas Kaberle may just be a forlorn hope.  This is unfortunate since Burke has targeted James Van Riemsdyk on Philadelphia.  However, Burke does have some factors working in his favour:

1. Philadelphia needs to improve its power play.  It is currently ranked 17th in the NHL and below the league average.
2. Moving Van Riemsdyk creates cap room for Philadelphia to extend Kaberle.
3. Paul Holmgren, Philadelphia's Manager, values Kaberle.  Remember his willingness to trade Jeff Carter for Kaberle.
4. Brian Burke can make the deal bigger by adding Kris Versteeg.  However, it requires Toronto taking back Brayden Colburn or Matt Carle so Flyers comply with next year's cap when extending Kaberle.  
5. Toronto can take any unwanted cap salary from Philadelphia so Flyers can do additional trades.  For example, Holmgren may want to shed Nikolai Zherdev from their roster.  Shedding the cap salary and opening a third spot on their 50 Active Player roster.

James Van Riemsdyk and Matt Carle or Brayden Colburn for Tomas Kaberle (with contract extension) and Kris Versteeg might be too costly for Philadelphia.  Ultimately, it will come down to Paul Holmgren having to choose between "wanting to win the trade" versus "wanting to win the cup".  It will be interesting to watch.

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Kris Versteeg was traded to Philadelphia Flyers for a 1st and 3rd round pick within two hours of posting this blog entry.  This trade makes it almost impossible to move Tomas Kaberle to Philadelphia since they are capped out.  Brian Burke and Peter Chiarelli are now forced to deal with each other again!  Fans from both teams must be holding their breadth.

Post Script 18-Feb-2011

Another observation worth noting is the importance of receiving 1st round draft picks when making "Time Machine" trades.  You see them in many "Time Machine" trades.  These draft picks are usually later traded for a top prospect or a higher draft pick.  In essence, when acquiring a 1st round draft pick, the Manager acquires an asset that holds its value over time and can be moved to any team regardless of its cap and budget restrictions.  Furthermore, 1st round draft picks do not have NTC or NMC (No Movement Clause).

Post Script Part II 18-Feb-2011

Tomas Kaberle has been traded for Joe Colborne (drafted 16th overall in 2008 Entry Draft) and Boston's 2011 1st pick and a conditional 2nd pick from 2011.  Boston's 2nd pick depends on Kaberle either resigning with Boston or Boston advancing to the Stanley Cup finals.

Only Chris Pronger and Peter Forsberg have garnered a larger return in a "Time Machine" trade.  Both of them happen to be former Hart Trophy winners and Top 5 draft picks.

However, if the initial strategy was to package Kris Versteeg to magnify Kaberle's value, Burke can claim success with Colborne, two 1st round picks, and a conditional 2nd round pick.  In fact, splitting up Versteeg to get a 1st when the strategy wasn't working increased the return and applied pressure on Boston to make a move.

As a result, the combined returns for Kaberle and Versteeg compare nicely to Forsberg and Pronger.

Traditionally, Boston has never acquired a "Time Machine" player.  They usually acquire their players such as Marc Savard, Zdano Chara, Tim Thomas, and Mark Ryder through free agency.

Traditionally, Brian Burke does not acquire prospects and 1st round picks when doing a "Time Machine" trade.  In the past, he has acquired Francois Beauchemin and Andy McDonald in these trades.  He even stated his current objective is to get players.

Brian Burke has shown tremendous flexibility.  In doing so, he has pulled a rabbit out of the hat by getting "Hart Trophy winner" like returns for Kaberle and Versteeg.

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Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Brian Burke Made Room for Tyler Bozak by
Losing Staffan Kronwall on Re-Entry Waivers

Brian Burke will have to make room for at least 11 new players on his 50 Active Player Roster.  He presently has 48 players on the 50 Active Player Roster.  The 11 new players will come from the 19 prospects/draft choices on his 90 Player Reserve List (which includes the 50 Active Player Roster), Entry Level free-agents, and NHL/Pro free agents.

11 new players is a conservative estimation because Burke added 13 last off-season and 12 the previous off-season.  Brian Burke likes to keep two spots open on the 50 Active Player Roster at the beginning of the season in order to have flexibility when making trades or signing free agents.

As a result, expect Brian Burke to move at least 11 players from the current 50 Active Player Roster between now and the off-season.  Who will they be?

Hockey talent and contract status will have a big bearing on who goes.  But, there are other factors.  A player's age, waiver exempt status, and re-entry waiver exempt status.

In short, Burke will categorize players as NHLer, Prospect, or Depth Player.  As the name suggests, NHLers are the players who he expects to be on the 23-Man NHL Roster.  Prospects are the Pro Players who are waiver exempt.  Depth players are the remaining pros on two-way contracts expected to play in the minors.  Brian Burke collects a special type of depth player, which requires a closer look.

Brian Burke collects what I like to call "elite" depth players.  Borderline NHLers can be another characterization.  He acquires them by offering high AHL salaries in a two-way contract when they are free agents.  For example, Mike Zigomannis and Tim Brent have $250k as the AHL salary and Joey Crabb and Danny Richmond have $200k as the AHL salary in their two-way contracts.  Normally, any AHL salary over $105k requires a player to clear re-entry waivers when recalled by their NHL team.  However, any player with at least 320 professional games and no more than 40 games on an NHL roster the previous season or no more than 80 games on an NHL roster the past 2 seasons is exempt from re-entry waivers.  Mike Zigomannis, Joey Crabb, Tim Brent, and Danny Richmond meet the criteria making them exempt from re-entry waivers.

In addition to getting the top AHLers who are exempt from re-entry waivers, this strategy of paying high AHL salaries makes it difficult for budget NHL teams to claim these players when placed on waivers for assignment to Toronto Marlies.  Their budget has little room for the high AHL salary if the borderline NHLer can't stick with their team.

Next season, Matt Lashoff will meet the "elite" depth player criteria.  Tim Brent needs to be assigned to the AHL for at least 3 NHL games to maintain his re-entry waiver exempt status.  Newly acquired Fabian Brunnstrom will not qualify for an "elite" depth player contract.  In fact, Burke may place him on re-entry waivers before the end of the season with the hope another team claims him at half NHL salary so Toronto has room for a college free agent signing.  Brian Burke did it two years ago with Staffan Kronwell to make roster room to sign college free agents Tyler Bozak and Christian Hanson.

A final consideration is an AHL rule requiring each team to dress at least 11 players who played fewer than 320 professional games in the NHL, AHL, and ECHL.  This is easy for Toronto to manage with the overall youth in its organization.

Below, you see a table listing the 48 players currently on the 50 Active Player Roster plus prospects on Toronto's 90 Player Reserve list who are eligible to play in either the NHL and AHL.  We list each player's age in brackets.  NHL roster players are in bold letters.  Players who will be exempt from waivers are in italics.  "Elite" Depth contract players are identified with an *.  Prospects who become unrestricted free agents if unsigned by this summer are identified with a **.  Junior players already signed to a professional contract are identified with a ***.  AHL players trending to have fewer than 320 professional games played by the end of the season are identified with an x.

	Under Contract	UFAs	RFAs	Prospects
1	J.Finger (31)	J.S. Giguere (33)	J. Mitchell (26)	M. Frattin (23)**
2	F.Beauchemin(30)	T. Kaberle (32)	D. Boyce (26)x	L. Komarov (23)
3	B. Lebda (29)	M.Zigomannis(30)*	D. Richmond (26)*	B. Winnett (21)**
4	M.Komisarek (29)	F. Sjostrom (27)	A. Foster (26)	D. Brodin (20)
5	C. Armstrong (28)	J. Crabb (27)*	C. MacArthur (25)	J. Flaake (20)
6	C. Orr (28)	T. Brent (27)*	M. Brown (25)	J.Blacker (19)***
7	M. Grabovski (27)		J. Rosehill (25)	J.Devane (19)***
8	J.Gustavsson(26)		F. Brunnstrom (25)x	K. Ryan (19)
9	D. Phaneuf (25)		R. Hamilton (25)x	B. Smith (19)
10	N. Kulemin (24)		T. Bozak (24)	S. Olden (18)
11	K. Versteeg (24)		C.Gunnarsson(24)	P.Granberg (18)
12	P. Kessel (23)		C. Hanson (24)x
13	J. Rynnas (23)x		B. Scrivens (24)x
14	S. Gysbers (23)x		M. Lashoff (24)
15	M. Mueller (22)x		B. Irwin (23)x
16	K. Holzer (22)x		J. Reimer (22)x
17	J. Mikus (22)x		L. Caputi (22)x
18	R. Slaney (22)x		G. Scott (22)x
19	K. Aulie (21)x		L. Schenn (21)
20	R. Greenop (21)x
21	D. Mitchell (21)x
22	N. Kadri (20)x
23	J. D'Amigo (19)x

The top candidates to go are in red.  You can expect Burke to shop Robert Slaney and Dale Mitchell where he offers to take in return an AHLer in the final year of a one-way NHL contract.  This will be similar to the Mikhail Stefanovich for Fabian Brunnstrom trade.  Effectively, Toronto gives a team budget relief in exchange for roster relief.  Ideally, Toronto will acquire an "elite" depth player candidate when making this type of trade.  A perfect candidate is Edmonton's Alexandre Giroux.  The 29-year-old has a $500k one-year one-way contract.  He is second in AHL scoring and meets the criteria for a "depth" player contract.

UFAs Tomas Kaberle, J. S. Giguere, and Fred Sjostrom are unlikely to return next season.  In total, this provides us with five strong candidates to be moved from the 50 Active Player Roster.  Finding six more candidates from the RFAs and remaining UFAs will be challenging.  Of course, this number goes up if you can't move all of the top five candidates.  I have taken the liberty of identifying the top ten candidates when considering which five to move.  These players might end up as throw-ins for a bigger trade.

Be prepared to see a steady flow of prospects and depth players moved each year from the 50 Active Player Roster to make room for new prospects.  The 50 Active Player Roster is a constraint put in place to prevent large market teams from having a competitive advantage in player development over budget teams.

Brian Burke has found a way to maximize Toronto's financial strength by augmenting draft choices with Entry Level free agents.  This allows him to package prospects to acquire players such as Kris Versteeg.  Expect more of these types of trades at a minor level such as the Matt Lashoff trade.  However, the rules of the game can easily change in 2012 with the next collective bargaining agreement.  This might especially be so when the small market teams see a disadvantage when compared to Toronto.

In two weeks time, we will explore the "Catching the Big Fish" trade in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3.

Post Script - Same Day

You can find frequent updates on Leafs Prospects and Entry Level Free Agents from Hockey Buzz writer Brian Huddle at http://leafnationweekly.blogspot.com  Follow Brian Huddle on Twitter @brianhuddle.

Post Script - 20-Jan-2011

In case you missed it last week Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

Post Script 2-Feb-2011

Follow-on to this post Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

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Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

Brian Burke likes to trade for
"big fish" such as Kessel & Phaneuf

It has been fascinating to follow Toronto trade rumours the past two weeks.  Toronto passed on one trade offer for Kris Versteeg while two separate deals for Ryan Parent and Jack Skille fell apart.  Shortly afterwards, Ryan Parent cleared waivers and was assigned to the AHL.  Reports had the deals falling apart because Brian Burke was trying to make them into bigger deals.

In all of this, it was clear; Toronto Maple Leafs fans want to know about the next trade Brian Burke will do.  In short, they want somebody to predict the future for them.

A good way to predict what someone will do in the future is to look at what he did in the past.  In the case of Brian Burke, you can characterize his past trades while managing Toronto in six ways:

1. Catching the Big Fish
2. Upgrading the Asset
3. Cleaning Out the Cap
4. Making Room for Prospects
5. Time Machine
6. Cashing In a Diminishing Asset

Catching the Big Fish

We know these deals as the Phaneuf and Kessel trades.  They come at us completely unexpected.  Suggesting there possibility invites ridicule.  Only Eklund from Hockey Buzz is bold enough to alert us of their possibility.

These deals involve top prospects who delivered elite performances before reaching their prime.  In the case of Phil Kessel, at age 21, he was Boston's leading goal scorer.  For Dion Phaneuf, at the age of 22, he received 1st team all-star honours.  Seeing these type players traded is unthinkable to most people.  Targeting and acquiring them are long shots.  Yet, Brian Burke has done two of these transactions in his first two years as Toronto's manager.

Expect this to be Brian Burke's top trade priority over the next seven weeks.  He has more than enough cap space to do this type of deal.  He is ready to part with quality players such as Clarke MacArthur, Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, and Kris Versteeg in order to catch that "big fish".

Upgrading the Asset

Turning 24-year-old winger Viktor Stalberg into 24-year-old winger Kris Versteeg by adding two prospects (Chris DiDominico and Philippe Paradis) typifies Brian Burke's asset upgrade trade.  Some people lament the loss of the two prospects.  The fact is, an NHL team can only keep so many prospects under contract with the 50 Active Player roster limit.  It makes it impossible to horde prospects.  Converting 32-year-old Vesa Toskala into 32-year-old J.S. Giguerre last year is another example.

Perhaps Tyler Bozak can be in play in an "Upgrading the Asset" trade.  Toronto can package quality prospects such as Jerry D'Amigo, Matt Frattin, and Kenny Ryan into such a trade.

Cleaning Out the Cap

The packaging of Jason Blake with Vesa Toskala for J.S. Giguerre is Brian Burke's famous "Cleaning out the Cap" trade.  He did it in conjunction with the Dion Phaneuf "Catching the Big Fish" trade to make cap room for Phaneuf and clean out the cap three years out.  Similarly, trading Pavel Kubina for Garnet Exelby created cap space to sign Mike Komisarek and Francois Beauchemin.

Toronto has tremendous cap space.  According to capgeek, there is room to acquire a contract just over $7.538 mil.  This number goes up for Toronto by just over $83k each day.  It will be up to $9.942 mil by the end of January and $16.333 mil by trade deadline.  Toronto has no need for a "Cleaning Out the Cap" trade for this trade deadline period.  But, such a trade can signal an intention to do something "big" during the summer.

Making Room for Prospects

Toronto acquired Matt Lashoff (Boston's 2005 1st round pick) for Stefano Giliati and Alex Berry last August.  Two players least likely to ever make the NHL.  Why?  What happened?

Matt Lashoff is on a one-way contract of $550k and was unlikely to make Tampa's NHL roster.  Tampa's budget is so tight they can't afford to pay $550k to an AHLer.  For Toronto to help Tampa with its budget, Tampa had to help Toronto.  Toronto had 47 spots in its 50 player active roster filled while expecting to add Christian Hanson and Jerry D'Amigo.  Moving both Giliati and Berry allowed Toronto to resign Hanson and add D'Amigo while leaving two spots open for either the trade deadline, college free agent signings, or signing Matt Frattin.

In all likelihood, the deal with Vancouver for Ryan Parent (Nashville's 2005 1st round pick) probably fell apart because Brian Burke would take Ryan Parent's one-way $900k contract only if Vancouver took two low-level prospects such as Dale Mitchell and Robert Slaney in return.

You can characterize trading Jiri Tlusty for junior draft choice Philippe Paradis in the same manner.  It opened up a spot on the the 50 Active Player roster which was used when signing college free agents Brayden Irwin and Ben Scrivens.  In addition, Jiri Tlusty was going to lose his waiver exempt status at the end of that season.  Similarly, Luca Caputi will lose his waiver exempt status at the end of this season.

Time Machine

Trading 21-year-old Jiri Tlusty for 19-year-old Philippe Paradis is an example of a "Time Machine" trade where you convert an asset into a younger asset.  Brian Burke has been trying to do this type of trade with Tomas Kaberle without success.

Coincidently, I have been informed Tomas Kaberle has approved two teams for trade and rejected another two.  It will be interesting to see if Brian Burke can finally pull off a "Time Machine" trade with Tomas Kaberle.

Cashing In a Diminishing Asset

Trading an imminent UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent) for a draft pick or perhaps a prospect can salvage a difficult situation with the player.  The team does not want to extend the player's contract and tries to make the best of it.  Nik Antropov, Dominic Moore, Alexei Ponikoravsky, and Lee Stempniak are Brian Burke examples of such trades.  

Perhaps, Tomas Kaberle and J.S. Giguerre will fall into this category if they waive their no-trade-clause.  However, in a recent radio interview, Brian Burke made it clear he is looking for players.  Not more 2nd round draft picks.

The Stanley Cup Ring Effect

This year, Brian Burke has three assets who have been on a Stanley Cup winning team: Kris Versteeg, Francois Beauchemin, and J.S. Giguerre.  J.S. Giguerre is also a Conn Smythe trophy award winner in 2002-03 for being most valuable player in the playoffs.  These are players coveted by Cup Contenders.  Expect them to be in play at trade deadline.

Don't be surprised if Brian Burke uses these players to target top prospects such as Brayden Schenn and James Van Riemsdyk.  Philadelphia has a most peculiar cap problem.  They have $3.364 mil cap space left on next year's cap.  They can not acquire a player whose contract causes them to exceed next year's cap.  This might be a major reason for Philadelphia trying to outbid everyone on Jamie Langenbrunner.

The Cap/Budget Effect

One characteristic you will find in each major deal done by Brian Burke is a trading partner with salary cap or budget problems.  You should not be surprised to see the same result over the next seven weeks.  

Conclusion

Brian Burke and Toronto Maple Leafs fans may not be on the same page.  You are probably looking for change.  Brian Burke is looking for improvement.  He specifically wants to improve the first line.  He may surprise you by not doing any deals at all if no improvements are made available.  After all, why should he give another team cap or budget relief without receiving anything of significance in return?

Post Script 18-Jan-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Post Script 2-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching The Big Fish

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

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The New Reality on Entry Level Free Agents

Tyler Bozak was Brian Burke's
First Entry Level Free Agent Signing

It is time for NHL managers to rely more on signing amateur free agents to acquire prospects.  Signing amateur free agents allows you to fast track talent onto your NHL roster; lower cap salaries; and cycle more prospects through your 50-player roster.

There has been a growing buzz around Entry Level free agents over the past year.  Some NHL teams have become more aggressive in their pursuit.  Tyler Bozak, Brad Thiessen, and Bobby Butler are some of the most notable examples.

Hockey experts such as Bill Watters and Damien Cox have done their best to tamp down expectations on the potential of these Entry Level free agents.  Cox notes that Entry Level free agents have a tradition of delivering disappointing results.  Watters sites research showing 97% of Entry Level free agent signings never make it to the NHL.  In short, they consider Entry Level free agent signings to be marginal transactions with a low (3%) chance of succeeding.  NHL teams rarely overlook players with true potential at the NHL Entry Draft.

I believe anyone with foresight will change their thinking in spite of the strong “history” against Entry Level free agents.

There was brief time in NHL history where undrafted players were the difference between winning and losing.  Calgary Flames made it to the Stanley Cup finals in the 1985-86 NHL season with seven undrafted players on their playing roster.  St. Louis Blues had three undrafted players when they made it to the conference finals to face Calgary.  Philadelphia Flyer’s Tim Kerr, another undrafted player, scored 58 goals that season.  Minnesota North Stars had two 40-goal scorers who were undrafted players.  One was eventual Hockey Hall of Fame Inductee Dino Ciccarelli.

What made the mid-80s an exceptional time for undrafted players?

In the summer of 1979, the NHL transitioned from the Amateur Draft to the Entry Draft.  The amateur draft in the 70s did not limit the number of rounds for team selections.  Also, only players over the age of 19 were eligible for selection.  The draft ended when everyone got tired of making selections.  Even if only one team selected an amateur player, the draft continued to another round.  Most teams made selections in the first 15 rounds.  Some would select players for as many as 25 rounds.

In 1979, the NHL switched to an Entry Draft from the Amateur Draft.  It was limited to six rounds.  Most noteworthy, the NHL lowered the age of eligibility by one year.  This was to avoid a legal dispute with Michel Goulet.  This resulted in a double cohort of 19 and 20 year olds.

The following year, the NHL increased the rounds to 11 and lowered the age requirement to 18 years old.  This created another double cohort of sorts.

These events had the greatest impact on players born between 1959 and 1961.  Many quality NHL prospects from these birth years went undrafted.  Players reach their peak performance years between the ages of 24 and 26.  The 1985-86 season was the time when all the undrafted players born between 1959 and 1961 were playing at their peak performance.

In all, there were 32 undrafted players from this age group playing as regulars that NHL season.  Far exceeding the 3% success rate in my estimation.  It was no wonder they had a significant impact on the 1985-86 season.

How does this relate to today?

In 2005, the NHL reduced the Entry Draft to seven rounds from the previous nine.  Although not as impactful as the changes introduced in 1979, it is the second most impactful rule change for undrafted players.  The greatest impact is on players born after 1986.  It also affected players born in 1985 and 1986 to a lesser extent.

9.7% of the players selected in the last two rounds of the nine-round Entry Drafts from 1995 to 2004 became regular NHLers.  Dustin Byufeglin, Jaroslav Halak, Matt Moulson, Pekke Rinne, Tobias Enstrom, Dennis Wideman, George Parros, Michael Ryder, Sami Salo, and Tomas Kaberle are some of the prominent players selected from these rounds.

Only a foolish NHL manager or one with serious budget constraints passes on these players when they are available as Entry Level Free Agents.

Other Advantages to Undrafted Players

You can manage your cap level more effectively when you have a player on your NHL roster between the ages 22 and 24 at an NHL Entry Level contract.  Your cap hit will be under $1.8 mil.  Plus, their bonuses allow you to go over the cap with the carry-over bonus cushion.

These free agent signings also help manage your 50-player roster.  They need fewer years of professional hockey to develop.  Many of them are only two years away from their peak performance years.  You need less time to determine if they are NHL players.

Another advantage of Entry Level free agents is getting a jump on other teams for promising young players.  Toronto did this recently with 18-year-old Andrew Crescenzi.  No team selected him in this year’s Entry Draft.  However, Toronto wanted to acquire him.  Instead of waiting for the next Entry Draft to select Andrew at the age of 19, Toronto signed him now as a free agent.

Conclusion

It only makes sense to pursue more Entry Level free agents when you draft fewer players.  Teams with the largest budget gain advantage when every team shares this predicament.  The initial wave of this new class of undrafted player is now 23 to 25 years old.  Brian Burke’s vigourous pursuit of these players resulted in nine players on the franchise roster: Jonus Gustavsson, Tyler Bozak, Christian Hanson, Brayden Irwin, Ben Scrivens, Jussi Rynnas, Marcel Mueller, Simon Gysbers, and Andrew Crescenzi.  Three of them are on the NHL Roster.  Expect many more to be signed.

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Follow-up on Trade Rumours

SportsHaze writer Raihan Hussain made some interesting reports in his recent post

 http://www.sportshaze.com/nhl-rumors-bruinsleafs-talk-wheeler-njtor-talk-kaberle-and-more/#comment-2648

He reports Carl Gunnarson interests Boston Bruins who are shopping Blake Wheeler to Toronto.  Acquiring Gunnarson will give Boston a lot of cap flexibility because of his low cap salary and two-way contract.

Raihan also reports Tomas Kaberle still interests New Jersey Devils.  New Jersey having the worst NHL power play must be feeding this interest.  I still contend New Jersey will have to part with Travis Zajac and Dainius Zubrus to acquire Tomas Kaberle and resolve their cap problem.  They must make a deal by eighth of December if they want Toronto’s help with their cap problem.

Trade Rumour Sites

You can follow daily rumour postings at:

• www.hockeybuzz.com
• www.spectorshockey.net
• www.mynhltraderumors.com

Burke & Chiarelli Go Pheasant Hunting - Duck Kaberle & Bergeron

Will Brian Burke Catch Patrice Bergeron
when Pheasant Hunting with Peter Chiarelli?

Joe Haggerity of CSNNE.com reports Bruins shopping Blake Wheeler ($2.2 mil cap) around the league to free up cap space for the imminent return of Marc Savard and Marco Sturm.  Coincidently, Brian Burke told us he received two solid trade offers.  There are reports about Brian Burke and Peter Chiarelli going pheasant hunting this week.  By the way, Toronto Maple Leafs plays Boston Bruins this Thursday.

When Boston offers Blake Wheeler to Toronto, I imagine Brian Burke asking about Nathan Horton, Milan Lucic, and Patrice Bergeron.  Let's hope Chiarelli is not holding a gun at the time.

Putting all kidding aside, Chiarelli might be open to discussing Patrice Bergeron.  He is over-loaded with centres: Marc Savard ($4,007 mil cap), Patrice Bergeron ($4.75 mil), David Krejci ($3.75 mil cap), and Tyler Seguin ($3.55 mil cap).  He covets Tomas Kaberle ($4.25 mil cap).  Hockey experts believe Chiarelli will be the highest bidder when Kaberle becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

Patrice Bergeron has the highest cap salary amongst Boston centres.  Next year, it goes up to $5 mil.  This is $400k less than Phil Kessel's cap salary.  This week, Burke expressed his desire for a first line centre with a $5 mil cap salary.

Tomas Kaberle's NTC (No Trade Clause) will be the only obstacle if Burke and Chiarelli reach this common ground.  Of course, some will be incredulous at the thought of Kaberle waiving his NTC to leave Ron Wilson for Boston Bruins.  As you know, I am not one of them.

We may end up with Blake Wheeler and Patrice Bergeron for Tomas Kaberle and "another Leaf" by December before Brian Burke's Christmas trade freeze starts on ninth of December.

Who is the "another Leaf"?  This deal will trigger Toronto moving two forwards from its NHL roster, one to Boston and the other to the minors.  John Mitchell ($725k cap) to Boston makes the most sense because he is a bottom six forward with cap friendly salary.  Chiarelli will try for Mike Brown ($537k cap) but Burke is not the one with the cap problem.  Maybe even Tim Brent or Mike Zigomannis.

Who goes to the minors from Toronto?  Three forwards have two-way contracts: Tyler Bozak ($3.725 cap), Mike Zigomannis ($500k cap), and Tim Brent ($575k cap).  Tyler Bozak is the only one who does not have to clear recall waivers when called up.

Who becomes the seventh defenceman when Kaberle leaves?  Choose between Matt Lashoff ($550k cap) and Keith Aulie ($733k cap) from Toronto Marlies.  Matt Lashoff is on a one-way contract and must clear recall waivers.  Remember, Toronto must eat half his cap if someone claims him.

What are the cap implications of this type of deal?  

For Boston, it frees up almost $2 mil in cap space.  Just over $2.8 mil if they assign Brad Marchand ($821k cap) to the AHL to make roster space for John Mitchell.  Assigning Michael Ryder ($4 mil cap) to the AHL brings the cap savings up to $6.8 mil.  This makes NHL roster spots available for Marc Savard and Marco Sturm, keeps Boston within the salary cap, and reduces their bonus cushion down to $500k.  Important note, assigning Tyler Seguin to the OHL instead of Marchand to the AHL brings Boston's bonus cushion down to zero.

For Toronto, they have $3.9 mil in cap space if you factor in the expected bonus payouts.  This amount is reduced by $699k if the trade is done by 1st of December or $661k if done by eighth of December (day before Brian Burke's Christmas trade freeze).  This leaves $3.2 mil cap space, enough to do another big deal after Christmas.

Enough to allow Toronto Maple Leafs fans to sleep nestled on snug in their beds, with visions of sugar-plums dancing in their heads.

For Boston Bruins updates, follow Joe Haggerty at @HackswithHaggs on twitter.

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It's Not Over Yet Between New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs



Patrik Elias's No Movement Clause
Might be the Final Inhibitor to a
Trade Between Toronto and New Jersey

My previous post on how New Jersey Devils must deal with Toronto Maple Leafs if they want to trade one of their bad contracts has garnered a lot of interest where some have viewed the piece with incongruence.  I must add, it has been civil and respectful when coming from New Jersey Devils fans.

The team should be proud of its loyal fans.  In addition to their devotion, they are also extremely knowledgeable.  I remember one participant in a Tom Gilutti chat boards reiterating the relevance of Brian Rolston's contract being a "35+" contract where his salary can not be buried in the minors.  Of course, he was so frustrated with having to reiterate his point that he threatened to kill himself if it had to do it one more time.  Poor bastard is probably dead by now.

From the blogasphere, Lyle Richardson was the strongest contrarian with his piece posted at www.hockeyindependent.com.  He asserted: 

"The easiest and likely best way for the Devils to address their situation is to demote either Dainius Zubrus or defenseman (sic) Colin White now that Bryce Salvador will start the season on the long-term injured reserve list."

I agree with him.  But, not fully.  Assigning bad contracts to the minors is the best way of resolving this cap problem.  However, given the financial cost, potentially up to $16 mil., it is not the “easiest” way.  Also, it can no longer be claimed to be the likeliest thing to happen given it has yet to happen and the NHL season has started.

In all likelihood, Lou Lamoriello is trying to work out a trade.  If this is the case, I continue to assert Toronto is the most likely trading partner.

Lou can move NTC (No Trade Clause) contracts to Toronto simply by placing them on waivers and letting Toronto (who gets second claim on any waived players) pick them up.  So, Lamoriello can trade Brian Rolston or Jamie Langenbrunner to Toronto.  Of course, Edmonton Oilers can intercede and claim the player.  I am sure Brian Burke will be crushed if this happened trying to take Brian Rolston from New Jersey.

Toronto can free up cap space just by alone assigning Jeff Finger to the minors.  This would allow Toronto to receive $3.5 mil in cap from New Jersey.  

I cannot see Toronto eating Fingers $3.5 mil just to fill in holes on the third line.  I only see it being done to facilitate upgrading their first line.  I am not disparaging Dainius Zubrus, Brian Rolston, and Jamie Langenbrunner.  They are "win now" players signed to "win now" contracts.  They are final pieces you add to your team after you have your first line established.  Good veterans who are over 30 years old playing on your third line at a premium salary.

Lou Lamoriello thought his team was ready for these players when he signed them.  Clearly, he had a change of heart or thinking when signing Ilya Kovalchuk.  Toronto is not at the stage to go after the final pieces.  Besides, if I am wrong, all Burke has to do to get Zubrus is wait for New Jersey to place him on waivers.

For Toronto to waive Jeff Finger, it has to be for a deal involving either Travis Zajac ($3.877 mil), Patrik Elias ($6 mil), or Zach Parise ($3.125 mil).  You will first have to kill Lamoriello to get Zach Parise.  If you don’t, New Jersey Devils fans will.  So, $3.5 mil in cap space will not be enough to get a deal done.  This takes us to the next tool in Toronto's possession. 

Bonus-laden contracts.  Toronto has many of them.  They total $5.12 by my calculation, which is over the $4.455 max, allowed for deferral to next year.  Moving first line centre Tyler Bozak ($875k salary - $2.85 mil bonus) will free up $1.515 mil in cap space for the Leafs plus allow Leafs to use $680k held in reserve for bringing up third goalie Jussi Rynnas (bonus laden contract).  This makes available an extra $2.195 mil in cap available to a total of $5.695 mil.

Enough space to take Travis Zajac and close to Patrik Elias.  I imagine, this is the nucleus of the trade ideas coming from Brian Burke.  “Let’s start with Tyler Bozak for Zajac or Elias as the foundation for our trade.”

This alone, will be unacceptable for Lou Lamoriello.  To paraphrase Lyle Richardson, New Jersey will not trade one of their best players for a lesser player to resolve their cap situation.  I will add my own assertion, New Jersey cannot expect to trade one of their good veteran players for a player of equal skill who is younger and paid a half to a third of the salary plus have Toronto eat Jeff Finger’s contract to make space.

Burke and Lamoriello need a compromise to do a deal.  Given New Jersey's moves in the past few days, we have a real reason to believe they are working on one.  For a deal to be done, Lou will identify a player he covets from Toronto.  I suspect Tomas Kaberle ($4.25 mil).  Plus, he will identify his worst contracts for Toronto to pick up.  Brian Rolston ($5,062,500) should be at the top of the list.  Remember, New Jersey and Toronto can work around his NTC using waivers.  If not Rolston, it could be Zubrus ($3.4) or Jamie Langenbrunner ($2.8 mil).

So, the nucleus of any deal probably will be Tyler Bozak and Tomas Kaberle to New Jersey for Travis Zajac and Brian Rolston or Patrik Elias and Dainius Zubrus/Jamie Langenbrunner.  Plug it into capgeek and you will see there is room to sign Adam Mair (up to $950k to $1 mil) and add another forward such as Tedenby or two forwards at the minimum $500k.

Tomas Kaberle does have a NTC contract.  But, not many people believe it is outlandish to think he prefers playing with Kovalchuk over playing for Ron Wilson in the final year of his contract.  It may not be an obstacle.  The biggest obstacle for which I have no resolution to suggest is getting Patrik Elias's approval because of his NMC (No Movement Clause) contract.  Perhaps, this explains why everything seems to be in limbo.

Please understand.  I don't know what will happen.  I am just a hockey fan speculating on the situation.  However, I do believe my speculation has some merit.

Post Script to New Jersey fans.  If this happened two years later, Lou Lamoriello would have more options to address the problem because he has plethora of good young prospects.  Some of them, Nick Palmieri and Adam Henrique, I have seen play in Ontario Hockey League games.

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Why New Jersey Must Do a Deal with Toronto and How it can Become a Block Buster Trade

The no trade clause in
Jamie Langenbrunner's contract
can Trigger a Block Buster Trade
between New Jersey Devils
and Toronto Maple Leafs

New Jersey Devils are currently over the NHL salary cap by $2,358,334 with three roster spots left to fill.

It is in New Jersey Devils' and Lou Lamoriello's best interest to solve their cap problem with a trade as opposed to assigning big long contracts to the minors.  Assigning good players to the minors can cost the Devils $20 mil and perhaps, Lamoriello his job.  The trade route can return young players, prospects, or draft picks.  Clearly, the trade route has greater appeal.

However, the trade route is proving especially difficult because many of the players the Devils may want to move have NTCs (no trade clauses) in their contracts:

• 
  
  Jamie Langenbrunner (age 35 with $2.8 mil cap hit for one year),
• 
  
  Brian Rolston (age 37 with $5,062,500 cap hit for two years), 
• 
  
  Colin White (age 32 with $3 mil cap hit for two years), and
• 
  
  Johan Hedberg (age 37 with $1.5 mil cap hit for one year).

There is a way around these no trade clauses.  New Jersey can strike a deal with a team where it sends the NTC player to its trading partner by placing the player on waivers and let the trading partner claim the player from waivers.  This can be risky because of the chance another team ahead of the trading partner claims the player.

Prior to 1st of November, the previous year's standings are used to determine the order in which teams can make claims on waived players.  It goes in the order of worst record to best record.  As it stands, Edmonton Oilers get first claim, Toronto Maple Leafs get second claim, and so on.

As a result, Toronto is an excellent trade candidate for New Jersey's NTC contracts.  In addition, Toronto can easily sabotage any attempt to this with another team.

The player New Jersey most likely will try to trade is Jamie Langenbrunner.  New Jersey will have little choice but to deal with Toronto if Langenbrunner doesn't waive his NTC.  When this happens, things will get very interesting.  Allow me to explain why and how.

Moving Langenbrunner to Toronto means New Jersey will have to move one more player.  It will be a choice between Bryce Salvador (age 34 with $2.9 mil cap hit for two years) and Dainius Zubrus (age 32 with $3.4 mil cap hit for three years).  There was interest in Bryce Salvador until two days ago when he got a concussion.  This leaves Dainius Zubrus.  The Leafs have shown interest in Zubrus.  They can wait for New Jersey to place him on waivers and then claim him.  But, the Leafs will not have cap space for both Langenbruner and Zubrus.  Even after sending Jeff Finger to the minors or trading him to New Jersey for Zubrus as suggested by my previous blog post.

The Leafs will have to free up at least $2 mil in cap space to make room for both of these players.  They can do something drastic such as send Luke Schenn to the minors because he is on a two-way contract.  But, not likely.

Brian Burke will most likely talk trade with Lamoriello where he asks Lou to take a Leaf roster player back when sending Zubrus and Langenbrunner to the Leafs.  I can see Burke offering Mikhail Grabovski and Lamoriello wanting Tomas Kaberle who has a $4.25 mil cap hit.  This makes things more complicated because in order for New Jersey to get someone who interests them such as Kaberle, the trade has to get bigger.  This is where Brian Burke excels.  Find an NHL manager who has painted himself in a corner, and then negotiate a trade until it becomes a block buster.

I am sure the two teams will go back and forth with offers as both of them try to find a way to walk the cap tight rope together.  At some point, they will both reach the conclusion that a trade is only possible if a bonus laden contract comes from Toronto so New Jersey can leverage its unused bonus deferrals.

As discussed in a previous post, the two players on Toronto Maple Leafs roster with high bonus contracts are Luke Schenn and Tyler Bozak.  It will probably be Tyler Bozak because New Jersey needs forwards more than defencemen and Toronto will insist Zach Parise be included in any deal involving Luke Schenn.

When Tyler Bozak becomes part of the trade negotiations, Toronto will insist on a number one type centre in return.  This leaves Travis Zajac (a player New Jersey will do their best to avoid trading) or Patrik Elias.  Elias is 34 years old with a cap hit of $6 mil for three years.  To make it more interesting, he has a no movement clause.

New Jersey will implore Patrik Elias to waive his no movement clause to avoid trading Travis Zajac.  In addition, Toronto will have to convince Tomas Kaberle to waive his no trade clause.  Both Kaberle and Elias are in a similar situation where their roles have been diminished.  If playing with Kovalchuk, Parise, and Zajac on the power play in the final year of his contract appeals to Kaberle, he may approve a trade to New Jersey.  If Elias prefers to play centre for Phil Kessel in place of a possible third line left wing for New Jersey, he may also approve this trade. 

The final piece will be Burke getting New Jersey to take Grabovski if they send Elias.  This is necessary for Toronto's cap.  In addition, New Jersey will have to take one of John Mitchell or Fred Sjostrom who both have one way contracts.  After all, Toronto will be eating Jeff Finger's contract because of this trade to fix New Jersey's cap problem.

When the dust settles, we may see coming to Toronto - either Patrik Elias or Travis Zajac plus Jamie Langenbrunner and Dainius Zubrus for Tyler Bozak, and Tomas Kaberle plus, if Toronto receives Elias, Mikhail Grabovski and either John Mitchell or Fred Sjostrom.  This will be another Burke block buster deal.

In the end, New Jersey fixes their cap problem for this year and next so they have cap space to resign Zach Parise.  In addition, they add a top level quarterback defenceman to their power play.  Getting smaller players is their downside.

For Toronto, they get bonafide first line centre for Phil Kessel and a bigger more skilled third line.  Getting older players with big contracts which can cause cap problems one to two years later is their downside.

Perhaps these downsides cause additional prospects and draft picks to exchange hands.  But, haven't we done enough speculation?  Also, I see Toronto adding top picks/prospect if the deal involves Travis Zajac instead of Patrik Elias.

All this may happen just because Jamie Langenbrunner has a no trade clause in his contract.

Post Script.  Some of this blog post was inspired by Ecklund's post on hockeybuzz.com.

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Battle of the Fourth Defenceman - Will Leafs Make a Big Change to Defence?



Brian Burke Pursued Dan Hamhuis
This Summer to be
One of His Top Four Defencemen



If contracts mean anything, Toronto Maple Leafs already committed to three of their so-called top four defencemen.   Dion Phaneuf ($6.5 mil) and Mike Komisarek ($4.5 mil) have big cap hit contracts with four years remaining while Francois Beauchemin has two years remaining on a contract with $3.8 mil cap hit. . 

Although Luke Schenn is in the last year of his entry level contract, Leafs control him for an addition five years.  Tomas Kaberle is in the final year of his contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

So, two questions beg to be asked:

1. Who is the fourth top four defencemen?
2. Who will be the fourth top four defencemen for the long term?  

As of training camp, Tomas Kaberle is paired with Mike Komisarek.  This implies he will be one of the four top four defencemen.  But, there is a dark cloud of uncertainty hanging over him.  How long will he remain one of the top four defencemen if this uncertainty doesn't get resolved?



If Kaberle remains on the path to becoming a UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent), he may decide it is in his best interest to play on a team with high scoring forwards.  This may compel him to waive his no-trade clause.  He may very well be traded during the season.

Luke Schenn is arguably one of the best defencemen prospects in hockey.  Although he has not played close to his potential, he is at an age where a player's development can advance rapidly.  Do the Leafs see him as an imminent top four defencemen or a very marketable player?  Perhaps both.  None the less, he is in the final year of his ETC (Entry Level Contract) which forces the Leafs to decide whether to give him top four playing time or cash in on his marketability.

Maybe, Burke is buying time for a third option to develop.  As it stands, there will be many top defencemen who will be a RFA (Restricted Free Agent) at the end of the season.  Drew Doughty, Brett Seabrook, Jack Johnson, and Shea Weber plus some UFAs in James Wisniewski and Andy Greene.  Remember, Burke did try to sign Dan Hamhuis this summer.

Ultimately, when making the decision for this year, Burke must decide by the end of this season on whether to commit to someone in the declining years of his career; unrealized potential; or top players in the prime of their career.  This provides plenty of incentive to have Kaberle as a top four guy at the start of the year in order to move him quickly and then transition to Schenn so as to assess his development.

However, I have this nagging feeling that Burke already decided on a third option.

You are welcome to contact me (Leafschatter) at Twitter.

Post script.  You can find other interesting posts relating to this topic at TML Fan Fury; Blue Chip Prospects; and Mike In Buffalo at HockeyBuzz. Three of several excellent hockey blogs I have been reading.

http://tmlfanfury.blogspot.com/2010/07/what-if-burke-decided-to-trade-luke.html

http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com/2010/08/kaberle-stays-who-goes.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BlueChipProspects+%28Blue+Chip+Prospects%29

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=30207

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