Battle of the Fourth Defenceman - Will Leafs Make a Big Change to Defence?



Brian Burke Pursued Dan Hamhuis
This Summer to be
One of His Top Four Defencemen



If contracts mean anything, Toronto Maple Leafs already committed to three of their so-called top four defencemen.   Dion Phaneuf ($6.5 mil) and Mike Komisarek ($4.5 mil) have big cap hit contracts with four years remaining while Francois Beauchemin has two years remaining on a contract with $3.8 mil cap hit. . 

Although Luke Schenn is in the last year of his entry level contract, Leafs control him for an addition five years.  Tomas Kaberle is in the final year of his contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

So, two questions beg to be asked:

1. Who is the fourth top four defencemen?
2. Who will be the fourth top four defencemen for the long term?  

As of training camp, Tomas Kaberle is paired with Mike Komisarek.  This implies he will be one of the four top four defencemen.  But, there is a dark cloud of uncertainty hanging over him.  How long will he remain one of the top four defencemen if this uncertainty doesn't get resolved?



If Kaberle remains on the path to becoming a UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent), he may decide it is in his best interest to play on a team with high scoring forwards.  This may compel him to waive his no-trade clause.  He may very well be traded during the season.

Luke Schenn is arguably one of the best defencemen prospects in hockey.  Although he has not played close to his potential, he is at an age where a player's development can advance rapidly.  Do the Leafs see him as an imminent top four defencemen or a very marketable player?  Perhaps both.  None the less, he is in the final year of his ETC (Entry Level Contract) which forces the Leafs to decide whether to give him top four playing time or cash in on his marketability.

Maybe, Burke is buying time for a third option to develop.  As it stands, there will be many top defencemen who will be a RFA (Restricted Free Agent) at the end of the season.  Drew Doughty, Brett Seabrook, Jack Johnson, and Shea Weber plus some UFAs in James Wisniewski and Andy Greene.  Remember, Burke did try to sign Dan Hamhuis this summer.

Ultimately, when making the decision for this year, Burke must decide by the end of this season on whether to commit to someone in the declining years of his career; unrealized potential; or top players in the prime of their career.  This provides plenty of incentive to have Kaberle as a top four guy at the start of the year in order to move him quickly and then transition to Schenn so as to assess his development.

However, I have this nagging feeling that Burke already decided on a third option.

You are welcome to contact me (Leafschatter) at Twitter.

Post script.  You can find other interesting posts relating to this topic at TML Fan Fury; Blue Chip Prospects; and Mike In Buffalo at HockeyBuzz. Three of several excellent hockey blogs I have been reading.

http://tmlfanfury.blogspot.com/2010/07/what-if-burke-decided-to-trade-luke.html

http://bluechipprospects.blogspot.com/2010/08/kaberle-stays-who-goes.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+BlueChipProspects+%28Blue+Chip+Prospects%29

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=30207

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Is Brian Burke Scheming to get Steven Stamkos for the Toronto Maple Leafs?

Will Burke "max cap" Stamkos?

I saw an interesting note on Labour Day in Eklund's blog (the anonymous hockey blogger).  A very interesting NHL trade rumour site.  The Toronto Maple Leafs have interest in Patrick O'Sullivan. 

How can this be?  They already have their centres lined up with Tyler Bozak, Mikhail Grabovski, Nazim Kadri, and Christian Hanson.  They already have exceeded their cap limit.  Sure, they can manage it by sending Jeff Finger to the minors and exercising some bonus deferrals where some bonuses get applied to next year's cap.  Furthermore, they already have signed 50 players.  The NHL limits you to 50 players signed to a contract.

What is going on?  The 50 player limit can easily be addressed as demonstrated with the Matt Lashoff trade.  You simply find a team with a low budget and too many players on a one-way contract.  As in the Matt Lashoff trade, you trade two of your low-end prospects who have two-way contracts for the one-way contract player and....poof....you have an open spot on your 50 man roster.

So, you tell me, don't go off topic.  What is going on?  Excellent question.  I simply couldn't make sense of it.  So, I went to http://www.capgeek.com/ and played with the Leafs cap calculator.  Capgeek wanker!!!

Then it dawned on me.  If the Leafs can sign Patrick O'Sullivan for under $1.5 million, they can demote Tyler Bozak to the minors (he is on a two-way contract) with Jeff Finger in order to meet their cap space limit without using their bonus deferral.

So what?  They meet this year's cap limit without using their bonus deferral.  What is the big deal?

By itself, approximately $2.15 million, it is not a big deal.  However, in the summer of 2011, when you also remove J. S. Giguerre ($6 million), Tomas Kaberle ($4.25), and Patrick O'Sullivan (let's call it $1.4 million for arguments sake) from the cap sheet, you start getting close to being in a position to offer a player a "max cap" contract.  A contract which has a cap hit of 20% of the team's cap which will be at least $11.88 million.

So what?  Burke would be crazy to offer "max cap" to any of the existing players on the 50 man roster.

Yes indeed, you are right.  It would be crazy.  However, maybe he can offer "max cap" to a free agent.  Are there any free agents available in 2011 worth "max cap" contracts?

Now.....I think I have your attention....I can think of two.  Steve Stamkos and Drew Doughty.  They are RFAs in 2011.  Does Tampa Bay have the financial means to match a qualifying offer of $11.88 million?  Do the Leafs have the first round draft picks to give as compensation?  According http://www.nhlscap.com/, four first round draft picks is the required compensation for this type of RFA signing.  Maybe a commenter will be kind enough to correct me if this wrong. 

Tampa may have a problem meeting a max cap deal.  After the 2011 draft, the Leafs have the first round draft picks to offer an RFA a "max cap" contract.

Perhaps, just having the possibility of a "max cap" offer to Steve Stamkos can bring Tampa Bay to the negotiating table.  After all, they had interest in Luke Schenn.  Perhaps, a package can be made where it is three first round draft picks, Luke Schenn, and Tyler Bozak for Steve Stamkos.  This isn't a prediction, but, simply speculation.  After all, Briank Burke had a similar situation with Boston over Phil Kessell.

If this turns out to be the grand plan, it will certainly upstage the abhorrent "Tank Nation" and vindicate Brian Burke on the Phil Kessell trade.  By the way, John Tavares is an RFA in 2012 plus Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin are RFAs in 2013.

Post Script 28-Nov-2010

Steven Stamkos - Restricted Free Agent - Snubbed by Yzerman - Again!

Post Script 23-Jan-2011

How Brian Burke Gets Steven Stamkos

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Post Script 26-Oct-2010

Great article from James Mirtle on Leafs cap situation.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/leafs-beat/making-sense-of-the-leafs-cap-situation/article1754464/

It expands on player bonuses.  In short, we should expect only $850k bonus payout each for Tyler Bozak and Luke Schenn.  Each of them are a cap hit of $1.725 mil.

Bonuses will total $1.87 mil.  As Mirtle concludes, Leafs have $3.96 mil in cap space before their $4.35 mil bonus cushion.

Also, bonus cushion is calculated on cap space after $1.4 mil carry-over bonus penalty has been deducted.  In other words, 7.5% of $58 mil instead of $59.4 mil.  This brings Toronto's bonus cushion to $4.35 mil.