Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

"Time Machine" Trades
Usually Involve Budget Teams

"Tomas Kaberle and the 'Time Machine' Trade" is part of a series of "Brian Burke's Next Trade" posts:

1. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1
2. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects
3. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish

In essence, a "Time Machine" trade is where you trade a player in his declining playing years (when he is past 30 years old) for a player who will be part of your team's core in the immediate near future.  Presently, Tomas Kaberle is 32 years old.

Brian Burke has been trying for the past two years to pull off a "Time Machine" trade involving Tomas Kaberle.  He thought he had one with Boston Bruins before the 2009-10 season.  However, there was a significant misunderstanding.  Brian Burke thought Boston agreed to send Phil Kessel and its 2009 1st round draft pick for Tomas Kaberle.  Peter Chiarelli, Boston's Manager, thought he traded Phil Kessel for Tomas Kaberle and Toronto's 2009 1st round draft pick.

There was a reported trade with Philadelphia vetoed by Tomas Kaberle prior to Brian Burke arriving to Toronto.  It was alleged Cliff Fletcher, Toronto's Manager at the time, reached agreement with Philadelphia agreed to send 29 year-old Tomas Kaberle for 22 year-old Jeff Carter and Philadephia's  2008 1st round pick.  Tomas Kaberle has a conditional NTC (No Trade Clause) in his contract where it goes dormant during the summer when Toronto fails to make the playoffs.

Why has it been so difficult to trade Tomas Kaberle?  What can you expect in return for him?  What strategy should Brian Burke use to trade him?

History is always a good starting point to find possible answers to these questions.  Below is a list of all "Time Machine" trades since the lockout involving players older than 30 who have been All-Stars (representing their team at the NHL All-Star game) and Olympic Team players.  The ages of the players involved in the trade are in brackets.  Players who were 1st round drafts picks have their draft position listed after their age.  Highlighted in yellow are "Time Machine" trades that appear to be successful in yielding younger players.  Past Hart Trophy winners are in bold letters.

"Time Machine" Trades Since the Lockout
Date	Players Traded To		Players Acquired By
15-Nov-05	CBJ	Sergei Fedorov (35) 5th 2006 (Maxime Frechette)	ANA	Francois Beauchemin (25) Tyler Wright (32) 12th
30-Jan-06	CAR	Doug Weight (35) Erkki Rajamaki (26)	STL	1st 2006 (upgrade trade)               (Patrik Bergland) Mike Zigomannis (24) Jesse Boulerice (27) Magnus Kahnberg (25)
16-Dec-06	PHA	Alexei Zhitnik (33)	NYI	Freddie Meyer (26) 3rd 2007 (Mark Katic)
14-Feb-07	ATL	Alexei Zhitnik (33)	PHA	Braydon Coburn (21) 8th
15-Feb-07	NAS	Peter Forsberg (33) 5th	PHA	Scottie Upshall (23) 6th Ryan Parent (19) 18th 1st 2007 (traded for players)               (Scott Hartnell)               (Kimmo Timanen) 3rd 2007 (traded)
27-Feb-07	SJ	Bill Guerin (36)	STL	Ville Nieminen (29) 1st 2007 (David Perron)
27-Feb-07	NYI	Ryan Smyth (30) 6th	EDM	Robert Nilsson (21) 15th Ryan O'Marra (19) 15th 1st 2007 (Alex Plante)
22-Jun-07	FLA	Tomas Vokoun (31)	NAS	1st 2008 (upgrade trade)               (Colin Wilson) 2nd 2007 (Nick Spaling) 2nd 2008 (traded)
14-Dec-07	ANA	Doug Weight (37) Michal Birner (21) 7th 2007 (Paul Karpowich)	STL	Andy McDonald (30)
26-Feb-08	COL	Adam Foote (36)	CBJ	1st 2008 (traded for players)               (RJ Umberger) 4th 2008 (David Savard)
29-Jun-08	Edm	Lubomir Visnovsky (32)	LA	Jarret Stoll (26) Matt Greene (25)
26-Jun-09	PHA	Chris Pronger (34) 2nd Ryan Dingle (25)	ANA	Joffrey Lupul (26) 7th Luca Sbisa (20) 19th 1st 2009 (traded for picks)               (Kyle Palmieri)               (Matt Clark) 1st 2010 (Emerson Etem)
3-Jul-09	LA	Ryan Smyth (33) 6th	COL	Kyle Quincey (24) Tom Preissing (30) 5th 2010 (Luke Walker)
3-Mar-10	ANA	Lubomir Visnovsky (33)	EDM	Ryan Whitney (26) 5th 6th 2010 (Brandon Davidson)
19-Jun-10	NJ	Jason Arnott (35) 7th	NAS	2nd 2011 Matt Halischuk (22)
6-Jan-11	DAL	Jamie Langenbrunner (35)	NJ	3rd 2011 (conditonal 2nd)

When reviewing these trades you will notice a few things:

1. Budget teams typically acquire "Time Machine" trade players.
2. "Time Machine" trades are usually done as the trade deadline approaches.
3. Philadelphia Flyers have history of doing "Time Machine" trades.
4. Except for the Flyers trade, returns in "Time Machine" trades have been weak in past three seasons.
5. Boston Bruins do not participate in "Time Machine" trades.

It makes sense for budget teams to seek out "Time Machine" trades when making a cup run.  This is there only chance to acquire these types of players.  Their budgets simply don't have room to have these large salaries for a complete season.  As a result, they are not in the market to sign them as free agents.

Here are the ramifications on Burke's quest to "Time Machine" trade Tomas Kaberle:

1. Market probably reduced to just Philadelphia because of Kaberle's NTC (No Trade Clause).  Doubtful Kaberle waives it for a budget team.
2. Philadelphia only has $5.064 mil room in next year's cap to extend Kaberle.  Getting a contract extension as part of the trade is the rumoured requirement for Kaberle to waive his NTC.

"Time Machine" trading Tomas Kaberle may just be a forlorn hope.  This is unfortunate since Burke has targeted James Van Riemsdyk on Philadelphia.  However, Burke does have some factors working in his favour:

1. Philadelphia needs to improve its power play.  It is currently ranked 17th in the NHL and below the league average.
2. Moving Van Riemsdyk creates cap room for Philadelphia to extend Kaberle.
3. Paul Holmgren, Philadelphia's Manager, values Kaberle.  Remember his willingness to trade Jeff Carter for Kaberle.
4. Brian Burke can make the deal bigger by adding Kris Versteeg.  However, it requires Toronto taking back Brayden Colburn or Matt Carle so Flyers comply with next year's cap when extending Kaberle.  
5. Toronto can take any unwanted cap salary from Philadelphia so Flyers can do additional trades.  For example, Holmgren may want to shed Nikolai Zherdev from their roster.  Shedding the cap salary and opening a third spot on their 50 Active Player roster.

James Van Riemsdyk and Matt Carle or Brayden Colburn for Tomas Kaberle (with contract extension) and Kris Versteeg might be too costly for Philadelphia.  Ultimately, it will come down to Paul Holmgren having to choose between "wanting to win the trade" versus "wanting to win the cup".  It will be interesting to watch.

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Kris Versteeg was traded to Philadelphia Flyers for a 1st and 3rd round pick within two hours of posting this blog entry.  This trade makes it almost impossible to move Tomas Kaberle to Philadelphia since they are capped out.  Brian Burke and Peter Chiarelli are now forced to deal with each other again!  Fans from both teams must be holding their breadth.

Post Script 18-Feb-2011

Another observation worth noting is the importance of receiving 1st round draft picks when making "Time Machine" trades.  You see them in many "Time Machine" trades.  These draft picks are usually later traded for a top prospect or a higher draft pick.  In essence, when acquiring a 1st round draft pick, the Manager acquires an asset that holds its value over time and can be moved to any team regardless of its cap and budget restrictions.  Furthermore, 1st round draft picks do not have NTC or NMC (No Movement Clause).

Post Script Part II 18-Feb-2011

Tomas Kaberle has been traded for Joe Colborne (drafted 16th overall in 2008 Entry Draft) and Boston's 2011 1st pick and a conditional 2nd pick from 2011.  Boston's 2nd pick depends on Kaberle either resigning with Boston or Boston advancing to the Stanley Cup finals.

Only Chris Pronger and Peter Forsberg have garnered a larger return in a "Time Machine" trade.  Both of them happen to be former Hart Trophy winners and Top 5 draft picks.

However, if the initial strategy was to package Kris Versteeg to magnify Kaberle's value, Burke can claim success with Colborne, two 1st round picks, and a conditional 2nd round pick.  In fact, splitting up Versteeg to get a 1st when the strategy wasn't working increased the return and applied pressure on Boston to make a move.

As a result, the combined returns for Kaberle and Versteeg compare nicely to Forsberg and Pronger.

Traditionally, Boston has never acquired a "Time Machine" player.  They usually acquire their players such as Marc Savard, Zdano Chara, Tim Thomas, and Mark Ryder through free agency.

Traditionally, Brian Burke does not acquire prospects and 1st round picks when doing a "Time Machine" trade.  In the past, he has acquired Francois Beauchemin and Andy McDonald in these trades.  He even stated his current objective is to get players.

Brian Burke has shown tremendous flexibility.  In doing so, he has pulled a rabbit out of the hat by getting "Hart Trophy winner" like returns for Kaberle and Versteeg.

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Forget About Leafs Finishing 8th - Think About First!

It is time for Toronto Maple Leafs
to Chase Montreal Canadiens

It is time to change your thinking on the Leafs playoff chase.  Instead of targeting the eighth and final playoff spot, start thinking about first place in Northeast division.  Montreal and Boston are each have 42 points.  One occupies third place while the other is in eighth place.  As a result, a chase for eighth place can easily become a chase for first.


Leafs odds of making the playoffs are presently listed at 1.6% chance.  However, the odds one of Montreal and Boston not making the playoffs is 19.8%.  In short, Leafs chances of making the playoffs depend on either Montreal or Boston faltering.  This is not farfetched. 

Northeast Division GP W L OL PTS PTS% GF GA Montreal Canadiens 36 20 14 2 42 .583 93 83 Boston Bruins 34 19 11 4 42 .617 95 71 Ottawa Senators 37 16 17 4 36 .486 86 108 Buffalo Sabres 35 14 17 4 32 .457 94 109 Toronto Maple Leafs 34 13 17 4 30 .441 79 103

Ottawa 5.2% and Buffalo 3.6% are closer to a playoff position than Toronto but suffered serious setbacks to their chances by recent injuries.  By the way, these odds do not reflect injuries.  Ottawa's best player,  Jason Spezza, will miss at least six weeks because of a shoulder injury.  Buffalo's top scorer, Derek Roy, is out for the remainder of the season.  In addition, Buffalo's best player, Ryan Miller, has suffered a nagging hip injury and Ottawa has a group of key players over 35 years old (Daniel Alfredsson, Alex Kovalev, and Sergei Gonchar) also suffering from nagging injuries.

With this in mind, you Leafs fans have to ask "How does Toronto stack up against Montreal and Boston?".

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal's fortunes depend on enigmatic Carey Price.  His great performance in October and November pushed Montreal into first place in their division.  But, Montreal will be in trouble if his ordinary performance in December continues for the rest of the season.  Especially if he mirrors last season's finish.

Carey Price Monthly Splits for Last Two Seasons
Year	Month	GP	W	L	T/O	GA	SA	SV	SV%	GAA	SO
2009	October	8	2	5	0	25	226	201	.889	3.44	0
	November	11	5	4	2	28	358	330	.922	2.48	0
	December	8	3	4	1	18	242	224	.926	2.25	0
2010	January	6	1	4	1	18	194	176	.907	3.01	0
	February	3	1	1	1	9	80	71	.888	3.76	0
	March	5	1	2	1	11	144	133	.924	2.52	0
	April	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	0
	October	10	6	3	1	24	272	248	.912	2.38	1
	November	12	8	4	0	19	392	373	.952	1.59	3
	December	11	5	5	1	32	307	275	.896	2.91	0

Montreal has little upside in its top six forward scoring.  In fact, their performance to date is comparable to Toronto's best six forwards.  Most of Montreal's top six forwards have passed their peak performance years (ages 24 to 26) while the ones in their peak years (Kostitsyn and Pouliot) have little upside potential.

Player	Ht	Wt	Age	GP	G	A	PTS	PP	SH	GW	S%
Tomas Plekanec	5-11	198	28	35	11	19	30	1	0	2	12.0
Michael Cammalleri	5-9	182	28	35	12	15	27	5	0	2	11.2
Andrei Kostitsyn	6-0	214	25	35	10	13	23	4	0	2	11.2
Brian Gionta	5-7	173	31	36	12	9	21	2	1	4	8.3
Benoit Pouliot	6-3	199	24	35	7	10	17	1	0	2	13.5
Scott Gomez	5-11	202	31	34	5	12	17	2	0	1	8.9

With this present scoring, Montreal's playoff hopes fall squarely upon Carey Price's shoulders.  Montreal will drift down in the standings if Price does not regain his early season form.

Boston Bruins

Boston has been getting spectacular (awesome, miraculous...) goaltending from Tim Thomas and great goaltending from Tuukka Rask.  Yet, there are rumours about Claude Julien's job as Boston's coach being at risk.  Tuukka Rask has a terrible 2-7-1 W-L-OT record in spite of his outstanding .927 save percentage.

Player	Ht	Wt	Age	GP	W	L	T/O	GA	SV%	GAA	SO
Tim Thomas	5-11	208	36	25	17	4	3	42	.949	1.68	5
Tuukka Rask	6-2	171	23	10	2	7	1	24	.927	2.57	1
Team Total				343	19	11	4	66	.942	1.92	6

Boston is simply not playing good team defence.  They are 25th in NHL Shots Allowed on Goal per Game.  Julien will have an awful mess on his hands if Thomas re-injures his hip.  This is a real risk given Tim Thomas is 36 years old.  To give his age perspective, remember, Quebec Nordiques drafted him in the Entry Draft.

Tim Thomas Monthly Splits for Last Two Seasons
Year	Month	GP	W	L	T/O	GA	SA	SV	SV%	GAA	SO
2009	October	8	4	4	0	23	245	222	.906	2.86	1
	November	7	2	2	3	13	180	167	.928	1.80	2
	December	9	4	3	2	22	286	264	.923	2.53	1
2010	January	10	3	5	2	24	263	239	.909	2.74	0
	February	1	0	1	0	3	25	22	.880	3.06	0
	March	7	3	3	1	16	185	169	.914	2.72	0
	April	1	0	1	0	3	25	22	.880	3.06	0
	October	6	6	0	0	3	185	182	.984	0.50	3
	November	9	5	2	1	20	282	262	.929	2.29	1
	December	9	5	2	2	17	316	299	.946	1.85	1

Boston has more upside in scoring potential with their young forwards.  Milan Lucic, their top scorer, is only 22 years old!  Three of their other top six forwards are in the prime of their careers.  

Player	Ht	Wt	Age	GP	G	A	PTS	PP	SH	GW	S%
Milan Lucic	6-3	228	22	34	16	11	27	2	0	3	21.1
David Krejci	6-0	177	24	27	7	17	24	0	0	1	10.3
Nathan Horton	6-2	229	25	34	11	12	23	3	0	0	13.6
Michael Ryder	6-0	192	30	34	10	12	22	6	0	4	13.9
Patrice Bergeron	6-2	194	25	34	7	14	21	3	2	2	8.1
Mark Recchi	5-10	195	42	34	6	13	19	4	0	3	10.7
Blake Wheeler	6-5	208	24	34	8	6	14	0	0	2	13.6
Zdeno Chara	6-9	255	33	34	4	10	14	2	0	0	3.7
Tyler Seguin	6-1	182	18	32	5	6	11	1	0	0	8.5
Marc Savard	5-10	191	33	11	1	2	3	0	0	0	5.3

But, Lucic's scoring stats must be viewed with caution.  He has never scored more than 30 goals in a season all the way back into junior hockey.  His 16 goals scored this season have been inflated by 4 empty net goals.

Ultimately, Boston may have a wild card in Tyler Seguin.  His high potential (second overall draft pick) means the 18 year old has a chance for dramatic improvement in the second half.  Giving this talent every chance to blossom in the second half of the season best serves Boston's playoff aspirations.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto is loaded with youth.  They have the youngest team in the NHL.  Their goal scoring is not far off the pace of Montreal and Boston.  Yet, they wait to realize the significant upside scoring potential on their first line.  Every forward they have under the age of 25 has a good chance of producing better scoring statistics in the second half of the season through natural development.

Player	Ht	Wt	Age	GP	G	A	PTS	PP	SH	GW	S%
Clarke MacArthur	5-11	191	25	34	9	18	27	3	0	2	15.8
Mikhail Grabovski	5-11	183	26	34	12	14	26	4	0	1	13.3
Kris Versteeg	5-10	182	24	33	10	13	23	5	0	0	11.5
Nikolai Kulemin	6-1	225	24	34	12	10	22	3	0	2	15.2
Phil Kessel	5-11	180	23	34	12	8	20	4	1	3	9.0
Tomas Kaberle	6-1	214	32	34	1	19	20	0	0	1	1.6
Tyler Bozak	6-1	183	24	34	4	7	11	3	0	0	7.5
Dion Phaneuf	6-3	214	25	18	1	5	6	0	0	0	1.8
Nazem Kadri	6-0	177	20	17	0	6	6	0	0	0	0.0

Ultimately, the first line needs rapid development from Nazem Kadri and Tyler Bozak to find his form from last season or perhaps the addition of a veteran player via a player acquisition.

But, any improvement in second half scoring will go for naught if there isn't a dramatic improvement in goaltender performance.  Team defence has been excellent this season.  Toronto has third lowest Shots Allowed per Game average in NHL.

You can rule out 33-year-old J. S. Giguerre as the answer given his chronic groin problem this season.  Toronto's playoff fate now lies in 26-year-old Jonas Gustavsson's hands.  His late season finish last year showed us how well Gustavsson can deliver on his potential.  Now is his moment of truth.

Jonas Gustavsson Monthly Splits for Last Two Seasons
Year	Month	GP	W	L	T/O	GA	SA	SV	SV%	GAA	SO
2009	October	5	1	2	2	15	139	124	.892	3.22	0
	November	10	4	3	3	28	282	254	.901	3.22	0
	December	6	2	1	2	9	125	116	.928	1.86	1
2010	January	10	2	6	1	32	288	256	.889	3.36	0
	February	1	0	1	0	4	28	24	.857	4.03	0
	March	8	7	1	0	17	222	205	.923	2.06	0
	April	2	0	1	1	7	62	55	.887	3.40	0
	October	3	1	2	0	7	89	82	.921	2.36	0
	November	9	2	4	2	22	250	228	.912	2.66	0
	December	7	2	4	0	21	153	132	.863	3.78	0

Toronto Maple Leafs making the playoffs is not as unthinkable as most people want you to believe.  They have youth on their side.  In fact, first place in the division might be just as likely as the playoffs.  It will come down to who has the hottest goaltender.  If Tim Thomas can keep his hip healthy, he might be the hottest goaltender in decades.  In the end, Toronto's playoff hopes might come down to a show down between Jonas Gustavsson and Carey Price in the final game of the season.  If so, it will be one of the most watched games of the season.

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