It's Not Over Yet Between New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs



Patrik Elias's No Movement Clause
Might be the Final Inhibitor to a
Trade Between Toronto and New Jersey

My previous post on how New Jersey Devils must deal with Toronto Maple Leafs if they want to trade one of their bad contracts has garnered a lot of interest where some have viewed the piece with incongruence.  I must add, it has been civil and respectful when coming from New Jersey Devils fans.

The team should be proud of its loyal fans.  In addition to their devotion, they are also extremely knowledgeable.  I remember one participant in a Tom Gilutti chat boards reiterating the relevance of Brian Rolston's contract being a "35+" contract where his salary can not be buried in the minors.  Of course, he was so frustrated with having to reiterate his point that he threatened to kill himself if it had to do it one more time.  Poor bastard is probably dead by now.

From the blogasphere, Lyle Richardson was the strongest contrarian with his piece posted at www.hockeyindependent.com.  He asserted: 

"The easiest and likely best way for the Devils to address their situation is to demote either Dainius Zubrus or defenseman (sic) Colin White now that Bryce Salvador will start the season on the long-term injured reserve list."

I agree with him.  But, not fully.  Assigning bad contracts to the minors is the best way of resolving this cap problem.  However, given the financial cost, potentially up to $16 mil., it is not the “easiest” way.  Also, it can no longer be claimed to be the likeliest thing to happen given it has yet to happen and the NHL season has started.

In all likelihood, Lou Lamoriello is trying to work out a trade.  If this is the case, I continue to assert Toronto is the most likely trading partner.

Lou can move NTC (No Trade Clause) contracts to Toronto simply by placing them on waivers and letting Toronto (who gets second claim on any waived players) pick them up.  So, Lamoriello can trade Brian Rolston or Jamie Langenbrunner to Toronto.  Of course, Edmonton Oilers can intercede and claim the player.  I am sure Brian Burke will be crushed if this happened trying to take Brian Rolston from New Jersey.

Toronto can free up cap space just by alone assigning Jeff Finger to the minors.  This would allow Toronto to receive $3.5 mil in cap from New Jersey.  

I cannot see Toronto eating Fingers $3.5 mil just to fill in holes on the third line.  I only see it being done to facilitate upgrading their first line.  I am not disparaging Dainius Zubrus, Brian Rolston, and Jamie Langenbrunner.  They are "win now" players signed to "win now" contracts.  They are final pieces you add to your team after you have your first line established.  Good veterans who are over 30 years old playing on your third line at a premium salary.

Lou Lamoriello thought his team was ready for these players when he signed them.  Clearly, he had a change of heart or thinking when signing Ilya Kovalchuk.  Toronto is not at the stage to go after the final pieces.  Besides, if I am wrong, all Burke has to do to get Zubrus is wait for New Jersey to place him on waivers.

For Toronto to waive Jeff Finger, it has to be for a deal involving either Travis Zajac ($3.877 mil), Patrik Elias ($6 mil), or Zach Parise ($3.125 mil).  You will first have to kill Lamoriello to get Zach Parise.  If you don’t, New Jersey Devils fans will.  So, $3.5 mil in cap space will not be enough to get a deal done.  This takes us to the next tool in Toronto's possession. 

Bonus-laden contracts.  Toronto has many of them.  They total $5.12 by my calculation, which is over the $4.455 max, allowed for deferral to next year.  Moving first line centre Tyler Bozak ($875k salary - $2.85 mil bonus) will free up $1.515 mil in cap space for the Leafs plus allow Leafs to use $680k held in reserve for bringing up third goalie Jussi Rynnas (bonus laden contract).  This makes available an extra $2.195 mil in cap available to a total of $5.695 mil.

Enough space to take Travis Zajac and close to Patrik Elias.  I imagine, this is the nucleus of the trade ideas coming from Brian Burke.  “Let’s start with Tyler Bozak for Zajac or Elias as the foundation for our trade.”

This alone, will be unacceptable for Lou Lamoriello.  To paraphrase Lyle Richardson, New Jersey will not trade one of their best players for a lesser player to resolve their cap situation.  I will add my own assertion, New Jersey cannot expect to trade one of their good veteran players for a player of equal skill who is younger and paid a half to a third of the salary plus have Toronto eat Jeff Finger’s contract to make space.

Burke and Lamoriello need a compromise to do a deal.  Given New Jersey's moves in the past few days, we have a real reason to believe they are working on one.  For a deal to be done, Lou will identify a player he covets from Toronto.  I suspect Tomas Kaberle ($4.25 mil).  Plus, he will identify his worst contracts for Toronto to pick up.  Brian Rolston ($5,062,500) should be at the top of the list.  Remember, New Jersey and Toronto can work around his NTC using waivers.  If not Rolston, it could be Zubrus ($3.4) or Jamie Langenbrunner ($2.8 mil).

So, the nucleus of any deal probably will be Tyler Bozak and Tomas Kaberle to New Jersey for Travis Zajac and Brian Rolston or Patrik Elias and Dainius Zubrus/Jamie Langenbrunner.  Plug it into capgeek and you will see there is room to sign Adam Mair (up to $950k to $1 mil) and add another forward such as Tedenby or two forwards at the minimum $500k.

Tomas Kaberle does have a NTC contract.  But, not many people believe it is outlandish to think he prefers playing with Kovalchuk over playing for Ron Wilson in the final year of his contract.  It may not be an obstacle.  The biggest obstacle for which I have no resolution to suggest is getting Patrik Elias's approval because of his NMC (No Movement Clause) contract.  Perhaps, this explains why everything seems to be in limbo.

Please understand.  I don't know what will happen.  I am just a hockey fan speculating on the situation.  However, I do believe my speculation has some merit.

Post Script to New Jersey fans.  If this happened two years later, Lou Lamoriello would have more options to address the problem because he has plethora of good young prospects.  Some of them, Nick Palmieri and Adam Henrique, I have seen play in Ontario Hockey League games.

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Why New Jersey Must Do a Deal with Toronto and How it can Become a Block Buster Trade

The no trade clause in
Jamie Langenbrunner's contract
can Trigger a Block Buster Trade
between New Jersey Devils
and Toronto Maple Leafs

New Jersey Devils are currently over the NHL salary cap by $2,358,334 with three roster spots left to fill.

It is in New Jersey Devils' and Lou Lamoriello's best interest to solve their cap problem with a trade as opposed to assigning big long contracts to the minors.  Assigning good players to the minors can cost the Devils $20 mil and perhaps, Lamoriello his job.  The trade route can return young players, prospects, or draft picks.  Clearly, the trade route has greater appeal.

However, the trade route is proving especially difficult because many of the players the Devils may want to move have NTCs (no trade clauses) in their contracts:

• 
  
  Jamie Langenbrunner (age 35 with $2.8 mil cap hit for one year),
• 
  
  Brian Rolston (age 37 with $5,062,500 cap hit for two years), 
• 
  
  Colin White (age 32 with $3 mil cap hit for two years), and
• 
  
  Johan Hedberg (age 37 with $1.5 mil cap hit for one year).

There is a way around these no trade clauses.  New Jersey can strike a deal with a team where it sends the NTC player to its trading partner by placing the player on waivers and let the trading partner claim the player from waivers.  This can be risky because of the chance another team ahead of the trading partner claims the player.

Prior to 1st of November, the previous year's standings are used to determine the order in which teams can make claims on waived players.  It goes in the order of worst record to best record.  As it stands, Edmonton Oilers get first claim, Toronto Maple Leafs get second claim, and so on.

As a result, Toronto is an excellent trade candidate for New Jersey's NTC contracts.  In addition, Toronto can easily sabotage any attempt to this with another team.

The player New Jersey most likely will try to trade is Jamie Langenbrunner.  New Jersey will have little choice but to deal with Toronto if Langenbrunner doesn't waive his NTC.  When this happens, things will get very interesting.  Allow me to explain why and how.

Moving Langenbrunner to Toronto means New Jersey will have to move one more player.  It will be a choice between Bryce Salvador (age 34 with $2.9 mil cap hit for two years) and Dainius Zubrus (age 32 with $3.4 mil cap hit for three years).  There was interest in Bryce Salvador until two days ago when he got a concussion.  This leaves Dainius Zubrus.  The Leafs have shown interest in Zubrus.  They can wait for New Jersey to place him on waivers and then claim him.  But, the Leafs will not have cap space for both Langenbruner and Zubrus.  Even after sending Jeff Finger to the minors or trading him to New Jersey for Zubrus as suggested by my previous blog post.

The Leafs will have to free up at least $2 mil in cap space to make room for both of these players.  They can do something drastic such as send Luke Schenn to the minors because he is on a two-way contract.  But, not likely.

Brian Burke will most likely talk trade with Lamoriello where he asks Lou to take a Leaf roster player back when sending Zubrus and Langenbrunner to the Leafs.  I can see Burke offering Mikhail Grabovski and Lamoriello wanting Tomas Kaberle who has a $4.25 mil cap hit.  This makes things more complicated because in order for New Jersey to get someone who interests them such as Kaberle, the trade has to get bigger.  This is where Brian Burke excels.  Find an NHL manager who has painted himself in a corner, and then negotiate a trade until it becomes a block buster.

I am sure the two teams will go back and forth with offers as both of them try to find a way to walk the cap tight rope together.  At some point, they will both reach the conclusion that a trade is only possible if a bonus laden contract comes from Toronto so New Jersey can leverage its unused bonus deferrals.

As discussed in a previous post, the two players on Toronto Maple Leafs roster with high bonus contracts are Luke Schenn and Tyler Bozak.  It will probably be Tyler Bozak because New Jersey needs forwards more than defencemen and Toronto will insist Zach Parise be included in any deal involving Luke Schenn.

When Tyler Bozak becomes part of the trade negotiations, Toronto will insist on a number one type centre in return.  This leaves Travis Zajac (a player New Jersey will do their best to avoid trading) or Patrik Elias.  Elias is 34 years old with a cap hit of $6 mil for three years.  To make it more interesting, he has a no movement clause.

New Jersey will implore Patrik Elias to waive his no movement clause to avoid trading Travis Zajac.  In addition, Toronto will have to convince Tomas Kaberle to waive his no trade clause.  Both Kaberle and Elias are in a similar situation where their roles have been diminished.  If playing with Kovalchuk, Parise, and Zajac on the power play in the final year of his contract appeals to Kaberle, he may approve a trade to New Jersey.  If Elias prefers to play centre for Phil Kessel in place of a possible third line left wing for New Jersey, he may also approve this trade. 

The final piece will be Burke getting New Jersey to take Grabovski if they send Elias.  This is necessary for Toronto's cap.  In addition, New Jersey will have to take one of John Mitchell or Fred Sjostrom who both have one way contracts.  After all, Toronto will be eating Jeff Finger's contract because of this trade to fix New Jersey's cap problem.

When the dust settles, we may see coming to Toronto - either Patrik Elias or Travis Zajac plus Jamie Langenbrunner and Dainius Zubrus for Tyler Bozak, and Tomas Kaberle plus, if Toronto receives Elias, Mikhail Grabovski and either John Mitchell or Fred Sjostrom.  This will be another Burke block buster deal.

In the end, New Jersey fixes their cap problem for this year and next so they have cap space to resign Zach Parise.  In addition, they add a top level quarterback defenceman to their power play.  Getting smaller players is their downside.

For Toronto, they get bonafide first line centre for Phil Kessel and a bigger more skilled third line.  Getting older players with big contracts which can cause cap problems one to two years later is their downside.

Perhaps these downsides cause additional prospects and draft picks to exchange hands.  But, haven't we done enough speculation?  Also, I see Toronto adding top picks/prospect if the deal involves Travis Zajac instead of Patrik Elias.

All this may happen just because Jamie Langenbrunner has a no trade clause in his contract.

Post Script.  Some of this blog post was inspired by Ecklund's post on hockeybuzz.com.

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