Leafs Forwards After 61 Games

Phil Kessel Might be the Only "True"
1st Line Forward on Toronto's NHL Roster

Welcome to the third quarterly review of Toronto Maple Leafs forwards.

In short, Toronto's offence consists of Phil Kessel and its 2nd line.  It is good enough to have three (Kessel, Grabovski, and Kulemin) of the six top goal scorers in the Northeast division.  This is good enough to be competitive when coupled with good goaltending from James Reimer.  You must remember they are competing against Boston's Tim Thomas, Montreal's Carey Price, and Buffalo's Ryan Miller.

Information Used to Assess Lines and Players

There are 3 players to a line and 30 teams in the NHL.  As a result, one can set performance thresholds for each line by looking at the goal scoring league wide in segments of 90 forwards.  Within these segments, you can designate a playoff and non-playoff echelon based on 16 teams making the playoffs.

Reviewing last season's statistics shows a player must score 21 goals to be in the top 90 NHL goal scorers.  In other words, scoring at least 21 goals is first-line quality scoring.  Scoring at least 25 goals is playoff quality first line performance.  Furthermore, 32 or more goals will place you at the top 16 goal scorer level in the league.

Second line quality scoring is 14 to 21 goals where the playoff echelon is 17 to 21 goals.  Third line quality is 9 to 14 goals with 11 to 14 goals as the range for the playoff echelon.  Fourth line quality is 4 to 9 goals with 6 to 9 goals for the playoff echelon.

You may have your own criteria for assessing goal scoring performance.  However, most people are satisfied with benchmarking against the league.

Age is another factor.  Ages 24 to 26 are typically a player's peak scoring years.  You can assume players younger than 24 will improve as they get older.  After the age of 30, players tend to decline.  The ones who excelled before the age of 24 tend to take longer to decline versus the others.  In other words, they can sustain good performance into their 30s.

Scoring percentage is another consideration when evaluating players.  For me, a player must have at least a 10% scoring percentage to get regular ice time.  You can make exceptions for exceptional play makers.  Otherwise, the player should be slotted for fourth line duty.

First line  Phil Kessel carries the 1st line.  Getting proper line-mates for him has been a problem.  Expect one or two acquisitions to be made by next season to correct this problem.

Phil Kessel   RW   GP - 61   G - 25   A - 19   Pts - 30   Pct - 9.5%

Age 23.  6'0" 202 lbs.  Drafted 5th overall in 2006 Entry Draft.  Leads the team in goals scored.  Will score over 30 goals this season.  Probably around 35 goals.  Presently 15th in NHL goal scoring and 5th in power play goals.  Has recently come out of a 14 game scoring drought with 6 goals in the last 5 games.  How he finishes the season should indicate what you can expect for next season.  He is the only true 1st line forward on the team.

Tyler Bozak   C   GP - 61   G - 10   A - 13   Pts - 26   Pct - 10.6%

Age 24.  6'1" 195 lbs.  Tyler Bozak is having a terrible season as Toronto's 1st line centre.  His scoring production looks even more terrible when compared to other Leaf centres when they were the same age.  At age 24, Kyle Wellwood (59-8-13-21) and John Mitchell (60-6-17-23) had comparable scoring production with lesser roles and ice time.  Has not been the play-making centre hoped by Toronto management.  Bozak's penalty killing and face-off skills might save his NHL career.  Presently, Bozak wins 54.1% of his face-offs and Ron Wilson characterizes him as the team's best penalty killing forward.  Toronto only needs to offer Bozak $918,750 to qualify him for next season.

Joffrey Lupul   LW   GP - 7   G - 0   A - 3   Pts - 3   Pct - 0.0%

Age 27.  6'1" 206 lbs.  A proven 25-goal scorer who returned two months ago from serious injuries.  Drafted 7th overall in 2002 Entry Draft.  His presence adds size to Toronto's top six.  Allows Toronto time to find a more suitable player for 1st line LW.

There are approximately 60 forwards in the NHL who can be categorized as true 1st line forwards.  Phil Kessel is one of them.  Brian Burke's challenge is to find a way to acquire at least one more.  Two, if Nazem Kadri does not develop into a 1st line player.

Second Line  Toronto has the best scoring 2nd line the NHL.  All three players are playing to their full potential.

Clarke MacArthur   LW   GP - 61   G - 18   A - 28   Pts - 46  Pct - 14.3%

Age 25.  6'0" 190 lbs.  Toronto's top scorer.  Having a career year.  Can score 25 goals this season.  Playing very well with Grabovski and Kulemin.  Leads the forwards in hits.

Nikolai Kulemin   LW/RW   GP - 61   G - 21  A - 21   Pts - 42   Pct - 14.9%

Age 24.  6'1 225 lbs.  Biggest skill forward.  Strong on skates.  Hard to knock from puck.  Now shooting more.  Scored 9 goals in the last 21 games played.  Will score 25 goals.

Mikhail Grabovski - Age 27.  GP - 60   G - 24   A - 20   Pts - 44   Pct - 13.9%

Age 26.  5'11" 183 lbs.  Very steady goal scoring.  20th in NHL goal scoring.  Most likely to score over 30 goals.

Another team will have to offer something awfully good for Burke part with any of these players on his so-called second line.  All three players are in the peak years of their playing career.

Third Line  Doing the job defensively.  Hitting and blocking shots.  However, more size and scoring is needed.

Colby Armstrong   RW/LW    GP - 41   G - 7   A - 13   Pts - 20   Pct - 13.7%

Age 28.  6'2"  195 lbs.  Size, toughness, aggressiveness, and an NHL shot.  He anchors the 3rd line.

Darryl Boyce   C   GP - 26   G - 3   A - 6   Pts - 9   Pct - 23.1%

Age 26.  6'0" 200 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, and scores.  Needs to improve on his 45.5% face-off pct.  Will eventually become a 4th line/depth player as more talent gets added to the team.

Fred Sjostrom   LW   GP - 52   G - 2   A - 3   Pts - 5   Pct - 3.7%

Age 27.  6'1" 218 lbs.  One of the leading hitters on the team.  Good hard skater.  Scoring pct is too far below 10% to play on the third line.  Not likely to return to the team when he becomes a UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent) at end of season.

The third line needs to get big players with NHL shots for Toronto to be more competitive.  Presently, only Colby Armstrong meets these requirements.  Perhaps, at the start of next season, it becomes a launch pad for Joe Colborne and Nazem Kadri.  However, the long-term prospects appear to be Christian Hanson and Marcel Mueller.

Fourth Line  A place holder for depth and role players.

Tim Brent   C   GP - 60   G - 7   A - 6   Pts - 13   Pct - 14.3%

Age 26.  6'0" 188 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, wins face-offs, kills penalties, and scores. Face-off pct has improved to 51.8%.  His versatility and dedication assures him of a spot in next year's line-up.

Mike Brown   LW/RW   GP - 29   G - 2   A - 3   Pts - 5   Pct - 6.1%

Age 25.  5'11" 205 lbs.  Hitting, blocking shots, skating, and fighting.  What more can you ask for from a $537k cap salary fourth liner?  This earned him a three year extension at $736k cap salary.

Joey Crabb   LW/RW   GP - 28   G - 1   A - 8   Pts - 9   Pct - 3.3%

Age 27.  6'1" 190 lbs.  Simply a depth player on a depth player contract.

Jay Rosehill   LW   GP - 17   G - 1   A - 1   Pts - 2   Pct - 12.5%

Age 25.  6'3" 215 lbs.  Filling in the tough guy roll during Colton Orr's absence.

Colton Orr   RW   GP - 46   G - 2   A - 0   Pts - 2   Pct - 14.3%

Age 28.  6'3" 222 lbs.  Teams ran Toronto out of the rink before Colton Orr's arrival.  He put an end to that nonsense.  However, he got involved in too many fights and may have ended his hockey career with a bad concussion.

Expect Toronto's 4th line to continue to consist of scrappy and feisty role-players.  Over time, these players will get bigger as per Brian Burke's blue-print.

Traded

Kris Versteeg    RW/LW   GP - 53   G - 14   A - 21   Pts - 35   Pct - 10.9%

Age 24.  5'10"  182 lbs.  A very good 3rd line player who was traded for a 1st and 3rd round draft pick.  An excellent addition to a strong team with large forwards.  However, he could not play well enough to be on the team's 1st line as initially hoped when he was acquired.  He has turned out to be an established 20-goal scorer with little upside.

Prospects

Nazem Kadri   LW   GP - 17   G - 0   A - 6     Pts - 6     Pct - 0.0%     (NHL)

                                GP - 34   G - 13   A - 20   Pts - 33   Pct - 17.3%   (AHL)

Age 20.  6'0" 185 lbs.  Drafted 7th overall in 2009 Entry Draft.  Maintaining a steady scoring pace in AHL.  Don't be surprised to see Kadri back in the NHL at the start of the 2011-12 season.  Might begin next season on the third line.  Expect him to play on the top six within one to two years.

Joe Colborne   C   GP - 3   G - 3   A - 0   Pts - 3   Pct - 60.0%   (AHL)

Age 21.  6'5" 190 lbs.  Acquired from Boston in a trade for Tomas Kaberle.  Drafted 16th overall in 2008 Entry Draft.  Like Kadri, don't be surprised to see Colborne in the NHL at the start of the 2011-12 season playing on the third line.  Also expect him to play on the top six within one to two years.

Jerry D'Amigo   LW/RW   GP - 41   G - 5   A - 9   Pts - 14   Pct - 8.5%   (AHL)

                                        GP - 10   G - 7   A - 8   Pts - 15                      (OHL)

Age 20.  5'11" 208 lbs.  Has potential to develop fast.  Playing time in junior has been the tonic for his stalled development.  Still very young with high upside.

Christian Hanson   C   GP - 6     G - 0     A - 0     Pts - 0     Pct - 0.0%     (NHL)

                                    GP - 45   G - 12   A - 17   Pts - 29   Pct - 11.9%   (AHL)

Age 24.  6'4" 228 lbs.  Big.  Strong on face-offs.  Might stick with NHL roster next season when he is no longer waiver exempt.

Marcel Mueller   LW   GP - 3     G - 0   A - 0     Pts - 0     Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)   

                                   GP - 53   G - 9   A - 16   Pts - 25   Pct - 9.6%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'3" 232 lbs.  Doing well after a slow start.  Needs to complete his orientation to North American hockey and culture.

Matt Frattin   RW   GP - 33   G - 24   A - 14   Pts - 34   Pct - 17.0%   (WCHA)

Age 23.  6'2" 205 lbs.  Currently leads WCHA in goals scored.  His scoring pace has slowed down.  Final year in US College hockey.  Certain to be a Hobey Baker trophy candidate.  Will be ready to turn pro this spring.  Toronto's fourth round draft pick in 2007 Entry Draft.  Viktor Stalberg scored 24 goals in 39 games when he was a Hobey Baker trophy candidate in his final year of college hockey.

Mike Zigomannis   C   GP - 8     G - 0     A - 1     Pts - 1     Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)

                                   GP - 52   G - 10   A - 30   Pts - 40   Pct - 8.9%   (AHL)

Age 30.  6'0"  200 lbs.  Versatile.  $500k cap salary gives team cap flexibility.  Doesn't need to clear re-entry waivers when recalled from AHL.  Hottest scoring Marlie in the past 20 AHL games.  Strictly a depth player.

Justin Hodgman  C   GP - 37   G - 10   A - 14   Pts - 24   Pct - 16.7%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'1"  203 lbs.  Missed some playing time due to injuries.  Not eligible for NHL play because not on Maple Leafs 50 Active Player roster.  Leafs must decide on signing him to an NHL contract to place him on the 50 Active Player roster.

John Mitchell   C/LW   GP - 23   G - 2   A - 1   Pts - 3   Pct - 7.1%      (NHL)

                                    GP - 8     G - 1   A - 4   Pts - 5   Pct - 10.0%   (AHL)

Age 26.  6'1" 204 lbs.   No longer can be considered a prospect.   Good skating speed and above average face-off performance.  55.7% faceoff pct during NHL play.  Eligible (played over 320 pro-games) for a "depth" player contract.  In other words, can earn more than $105k AHL salary and remain re-entry waiver exempt.

Luca Caputi   LW   GP - 7     G - 0   A - 0   Pts - 0   Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)

                               GP - 11   G - 1   A - 4   Pts - 0   Pct - 3.2%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'3"  200 lbs.  Having a disappointing season.  Has missed most of the season due to injury.  Will not be waiver exempt by next season.  Might be moved to make room for Justin Hodgman on the 50 Active Player roster.  Jiri Tlusty was in similar situation last season where he faced losing his waiver exemption at end of season and Toronto did not have room for Mike Zigomannis on the 50 Active Player roster.

Brayden Irwin   C   GP - 45   G - 7   A - 8   Pts - 15   Pct - 8.8%   (AHL)

Age 23.  6'5" 215 lbs.  Key development year for him.  Already has NHL shot.  Needs to work on his skating.  Slow progress in development.  Might be difficult to keep Irwin around next season if room has to be made on 50 Active Player roster for new prospects.

The addition of Joe Colborne has filled out Toronto's prospect list where they can be relied on within one year or two to fill in existing holes on the forward lines.  Some prospects have not made significant advances or even regressed.  However, this is to be expected when working with prospects.  Frankly, many prospect never reach their full potential.

Conclusion  Brian Burke remains in a strong position from a player management/development perspective.  He has traded out Kris Versteeg and acquired Joffrey Lupul and Joe Colborne.  In addition, he acquired two 1st round picks and a conditional 2nd that can be used to acquire another 1st line type player.

Although the team's top scoring forwards measure well against the best in the Northeast division, a play-making centre and bigger forwards are needed.  Ideally, Toronto needs to add three to four players to its top nine. If not through acquisitions, this can be done through the development of its prospects.

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Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 5 - Looking for a "Tank" Trader

Colorado Avalanche will want to Trade
with Toronto if They Intend to Tank

We have seen a flurry of trade activity from Brian Burke in the past two weeks.  He "Time Machine" traded Tomas Kaberle and Francois Beauchemin; cashed out (salvage trade) on Kris Versteeg; and "Making Room for Prospects" traded Mikhail Stefanovich.

As a result, Brian Burke acquired two 2011 1st round draft picks, Joe Colborne (age 20 - drafted 16th 2008), Jake Gardiner (age 20 - drafted 17th in 2008), Joffrey Lupul (age 27 - drafted 7th 2002), and Fabian Brunnstrom (age 25).  Other than Brunnstrom, everything acquired can be used as assets for "Catching the Big Fish" trades.

As discussed in "Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish", most of the "Big Fish" trades are done in the off-season.  Teams usually try to salvage bad situations with top players by trading them during the summer.  This rarely gets done at trade deadline.  In fact, Brian Burke indicated he expects his next big trade to most likely occur in the summer.

Brian Burke probably has completed all of his trades to cup contenders.  He does have his eye on Brayden Schenn, Los Angeles Kings top prospect.  However, it is most unlikely a deal gets done.  Los Angeles is a borderline playoff team.  They will only consider such a trade if they were in the middle of the playoff pack.  Furthermore, they "Tank Traded" Mike Cammellari in order to finish low in 2009 and draft Brayden Schenn.  Los Angeles trading Brayden Schenn will be like Brian Burke trading Phil Kessel.  It will only happen if the return is to big to turn down.

There might be one type of "Big Fish" trade available to Burke at trade deadline.  It can be with a team wanting to "Tank Trade".  By "Tank Trade", we refer to a team trading their best player who is at the height of their career with the primary purpose of finishing as low as possible to get the top draft pick.  In addition, the "Big Fish" player typically is the highest salaried player on the team.

Past examples are:

1. St. Louis trading Chris Pronger which resulted in having the 1st overall pick in 2006.  The Blues drafted Erik Johnson.
2. Boston trading Joe Thornton which resulted in having the 5th overall pick in 2006.  The Bruins drafted Phil Kessel
3. Tampa Bay trading Brad Richards which resulted in having the 1st overall pick in 2008.  The Lightning drafted Steven Stamkos.
4. Los Angeles trading Mike Cammellari wich resulted in having the 5th overall pick in 2009.  The Kings drafted Brayden Schenn.

What the "Tank Traders" got in return paled in comparison to the "Big Fish" they gave up.  It was strictly about shedding salary and getting the next top prospect.

In the next week, Brian Burke will be on the lookout for "Tank Traders".  Who may they be?  A close look at the bottom of the league standings quickly identifies the possible candidates.

NHL Standings after 20th Feb 2011
Rank	Team	GP	W	L	T	Pts	Last 10
24	Florida	58	25	26	7	57	3 - 5 -2
25	Colorado	59	25	27	7	57	0 - 9 - 1
26	Toronto	59	25	27	7	57	6 - 2 - 2
27	New Jersey	59	25	30	4	54	9 - 0 - 1
28	Islanders	59	22	30	7	51	7 - 3 - 0
29	Ottawa	59	19	31	9	47	2 - 6 - 2
30	Edmonton	59	19	32	8	46	4 - 6 - 0

You can rule out New Jersey and New York Islanders.  New Jersey has just committed to Ilya Kovalchuk in the past year.  Where as the Islanders have completed their "Tank Trades" when they traded Dwayne Roloson and James Wisniewski.

Ottawa and Edmonton are weak candidates given they are already at the bottom and don't have budget issues.  They seem to be more interested in getting maximum value for their players such as Jason Spezza. If Burke inquires about their tanking intentions, he will probably target Jason Spezza (age 27 - $8 mil salary this season), Dustin Penner (age 28 - $4.25 mil salary this season), and Ryan Whitney (age 27 - $5 mil salary next season).

The true "Tank Trade" candidates are Florida Panthers and Colorado Avalanche.  They are borderline lottery pick teams and dropping fast. In addition, if they intend to tank, it is in their interest to help Toronto.

I expect Brian Burke to target Colorado out of the two teams.  He will want Paul Stastny (age 25 - $6.6 mil salary for the next three seasons). Colorado already knows the value of tanking.  In 2008-09, Colorado finished 1-7-3 in their last 11 games when Paul Statsny was out with an injury.  This resulted in Colorado picking 3rd overall.  Their selection was Matt Duchene.

After drafting Matt Duchene, Colorado has acquired other young high ceiling prospects: Peter Mueller (age 22, drafted 8th in 2006) and Erik Johnson (age 22, drafted 1st in 2006).  They also have a conditional 2011 1st from St. Louis.  Colorado has actively acquired high ceiling prospects within the age of 22 years old.

Colorado may not want to do a true "Tank Trade".  Brian Burke might have to offer some 1st round draft picks to entice them into a "Tank Trade".  Never the less, do not be surprised when hearing rumours about Toronto Maple Leafs being interested in Colorado Avalanche's Paul Statsny.

You might also be interested in:

1. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1
2. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects
3. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish
4. Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

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Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching The Big Fish

Brian Burke has done 3 of the last 18
"Big Fish" Trades in the NHL

Many of you are anxious to learn what Brian Burke will do for his next trade.  Three weeks age, we covered the various types of trades Brian Burke does in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1.  Two weeks ago, we listed the various players on the 50 Active Player roster who might go in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects.

Today, we cover "Catching the Big Fish".  It should give you interesting insight into what might happen and why.  We do this by reviewing all of the "Big Fish" trades since 2005 when the current CBA came into effect.

By "Big Fish", we are talking about top players in their prime and top prospects who have yet to enter their prime.  Ages 24 to 26 are prime years for forwards and 26 to 30 for defencemen and goaltenders.  Top prospects are players who were top five selections in their draft year.  We have taken liberties to include some trades that just miss on the criteria but we still consider to be "Big Fish" trades such as Chris Pronger (at age 31), Brad Richards (at age 27), Mike Ribeiro (2nd liner in Montreal), and two prospects selected 6th overall in their draft year.

You can see the trades listed in the table below.  Along with the date of the trade, we characterize what motivated the team to give up the "Big Fish".  We also include each players age in brackets.  Following the age, is the draft position for any player originally drafted in the first round of their Entry Draft.

Big Fish Trades Since 2005
Date	To	Big Fish	From	Price Paid
3-Aug-05 Tank 1st 2006 Erik Johnson	EDM	Chris Pronger (30) 2nd	STL	Eric Brewer (26) 5th Jeff Woywitka (22) 27th Doug Lynch
23-Aug-05 Salvage Depth I. Kovalchuk	OTT	Dany Heatley (24) 2nd	ATL	Marian Hossa (27) 12th Greg De Vries (33)
30-Nov-05 Tank 5th 2006 Phil Kessel	SJ	Joe Thornton (26) 1st	BOS	Marco Sturm (27) 21st Brad Stuart (26) 3rd Wayne Primeau (29) 17th
23-Jun-06	VAN	Roberto Luongo (27) 4th Lukas Krajicek (23) 24th 6th 2006 (Sergei Shirikov)	FLA	Todd Bertuzzi (31) 23rd Bryan Allen (26) 4th Alex Auld (26)
3-Jul-06 Salvage	ANA	Chris Pronger (31) 2nd	EDM	Joffrey Lupul (23) 7th Ladislav Smid (20) 9th 1st 2007 (traded) 1st 2008 (Jordan Eberle) 2nd 2008 (traded)
29-Sep-06 Salvage Playoff Run	LA	Jack Johnson (20) 3rd Oleg Teverdosky (29) 2nd	CAR	Tim Gleason (24) 23rd Eric Belanger (29)
30-Sep-06 Depth T. Plekanec	DAL	Mike Ribeiro (26)	MTL	Janne Niinamaa (31)
15-Feb-07 Playoff Run	PHA	Scottie Upshall (23) 6th Ryan Parent (19) 18th 1st 2007 (traded) 3rd 2007 (traded)	NSH	Peter Forsberg (33) 6th
18-Jun-07 Budget	PHA	Scottie Hartnell (25) 6th Kimmo Timmanen (32)	NSH	1st 2007 (Jonathon Blum)
26-Feb-08 Tank 1st 2008 S. Stamkos	DAL	Brad Richards (27) Johan Holmqvist (29)	TB	Jussi Jokinen (24) Jeff Halpern (31) Mike Smith (25) 4th 2009 (traded)
26-Feb-08 Playoff Run	CHI	Andrew Ladd (22) 4th	CAR	Tuomo Ruuto (24) 9th
26-Feb-08 Time Machine	SJ	Brian Campbell (28) 7th 2008 (Drew Daniels)	BUF	Steve Bernier (22) 16th 1st 2008 (Tyler Ennis)
20-Jun-08 Tank 5th 2009 B. Schenn	CGY	Mike Cammalleri (25) 2nd 2008 (Mitch Wahl)	LA	1st 2008 (traded) 2nd 2009 (traded)
27-Jun-09 Salvage	CGY	Jay Bouwmeester (26) 3rd	FLA	Jordan Leopald (29) 3rd 2009 (Josh Birkholz)
18-Sep-09 Cap	TOR	Phil Kessel (22) 5th	BOS	1st 2010 (Tyler Seguin) 2nd 2010 (Jared Knight) 1st 2011
31-Jan-10 Cap	TOR	Dion Phaneuf (24) 9th Fred Sjostrom (26) 11th Keith Aulie (20)	CGY	Matt Stajan (26) Niklas Hagman (30) Ian White (26) Jamal Mayers (35)
4-Feb-10 Salvage	NJ	Ilya Kovalchuk (26) 1st Anssi Salmela (25) 2nd 2010 (Jonathon Merrill)	ATL	Niclas Bergfors (22) 23rd Johnny Odua (28) Patrice Cormier (19) 1st 2010 (traded) 2nd 2010 (traded)
22-Jun-10	BOS	Nathan Horton (25) 5th Greg Campbell (27)	FLA	Dennis Wideman (27) 1st 2010 (traded) 3rd 2011

Typically there are at least three "Big Fish" trades each year.  So far, there has only been one this season.  Although "Cap" trades haven dominated the past year, the majority of trades have been either "Salvage" or "Tank" trades.

By "Salvage" trade, we refer to a situation where either a player does not want to remain with the team or the team has given up on the player.  By "Tank" trade, we refer to when a team literally gives away a top player with the intent of finishing low enough to get a lottery pick.  There can be a "Budget" element to a "Tank" trade.  But, never doubt the trading team having its eye on the prize (lottery pick).

The "Tank" trades are most striking because it involved St. Louis trading Chris Pronger to tank to the 1st pick to draft Erick Johnson at the end of the season.  Boston traded Joe Thornton to tank to 5th last to draft Phil Kessel.  Tampa Bay traded Brad Richards to tank to last overall to draft Steven Stamkos.  Los Angeles traded Mike Cammalleri to tank to 5th last to draft Brayden Schenn.

Whenever a 1st round draft pick player is traded, the trading team usually expects either a 1st round draft pick player or 1st round draft pick in return.  Dion Phaneuf and Jay Bouwmeester trades are two exceptions.

As a result, expect Nazem Kadri, Luke Schenn, Phil Kessel, Dion Phaneuf, and 1st round draft picks to be in play when Toronto has "Big Fish" trade talks with any team.  To avoid giving up these players, Toronto will have to target teams wanting to do a "Depth" trade with a 2nd liner because they have a top prospect waiting to take over.  Mike Komisarek, Colby Armstrong, Fred Sjostrom, and Matt Lashoff are other 1st round draft pick players who can be secondary players in a deal.

"Salvage" trade scenarios are brewing for players such as Shea Weber and Zach Parise.  However, they are more likely to be summer trades if they materialize.  Only one of the past five "Salvage" trades occurred at trade deadline.  The other four occurred in the off-season.

Teams wanting to do a "Tank" trade might be Toronto's wild card.  Such a team will be motivated to trade with Toronto because it can help lift Toronto out of a lottery pick position while they drop into one.  Edmonton, Ottawa, Florida, St. Louis, Buffalo, and Columbus are candidates for such a trade.  Of course, this list can grow as we approach trade deadline.  Ottawa trading Jason Spezza or Columbus trading Rick Nash would be similar to Boston "Tank" trading Joe Thornton.

Ultimately, it is up to the team holding the "Big Fish" to determine if and when the trade occurs.  All Brian Burke can do is be prepared when the opportunity arises.  In other words, have the cap space and trading assets available to capitalize on the opportunity.  It has payed off for him in the past with a Stanley Cup.

In the next two weeks, we will cover "Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the Time Machine Trade" plus "The Winnipeg Curse".

In Case You Missed It

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

After Thoughts

It is interesting how Boston Bruins recovered from the Joe Thornton "Tank" trade with free agent signings Tim Thomas, Zdano Charo, and Marc Savard.

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

Post Script 28-Feb-2011

Brian Burke has "Time Machine" traded Tomas Kaberle, Francois Beauchemin, and Kris Versteeg to acquire Boston's 2011 1st and conditional 2nd, Philadelphia's 2011 1st, Joe Colborne (20 years old, drafted 16th overall 2008), Jake Gardiner (20 years old, drafted 17th overall 2008), and Joffrey Lupul (27 years old, drafted 7th overall 2002).

He clearly has loaded up with assets which can be used in "Catching the Big Fish" trades.

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Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 2 - Making Room for Prospects

Brian Burke Made Room for Tyler Bozak by
Losing Staffan Kronwall on Re-Entry Waivers

Brian Burke will have to make room for at least 11 new players on his 50 Active Player Roster.  He presently has 48 players on the 50 Active Player Roster.  The 11 new players will come from the 19 prospects/draft choices on his 90 Player Reserve List (which includes the 50 Active Player Roster), Entry Level free-agents, and NHL/Pro free agents.

11 new players is a conservative estimation because Burke added 13 last off-season and 12 the previous off-season.  Brian Burke likes to keep two spots open on the 50 Active Player Roster at the beginning of the season in order to have flexibility when making trades or signing free agents.

As a result, expect Brian Burke to move at least 11 players from the current 50 Active Player Roster between now and the off-season.  Who will they be?

Hockey talent and contract status will have a big bearing on who goes.  But, there are other factors.  A player's age, waiver exempt status, and re-entry waiver exempt status.

In short, Burke will categorize players as NHLer, Prospect, or Depth Player.  As the name suggests, NHLers are the players who he expects to be on the 23-Man NHL Roster.  Prospects are the Pro Players who are waiver exempt.  Depth players are the remaining pros on two-way contracts expected to play in the minors.  Brian Burke collects a special type of depth player, which requires a closer look.

Brian Burke collects what I like to call "elite" depth players.  Borderline NHLers can be another characterization.  He acquires them by offering high AHL salaries in a two-way contract when they are free agents.  For example, Mike Zigomannis and Tim Brent have $250k as the AHL salary and Joey Crabb and Danny Richmond have $200k as the AHL salary in their two-way contracts.  Normally, any AHL salary over $105k requires a player to clear re-entry waivers when recalled by their NHL team.  However, any player with at least 320 professional games and no more than 40 games on an NHL roster the previous season or no more than 80 games on an NHL roster the past 2 seasons is exempt from re-entry waivers.  Mike Zigomannis, Joey Crabb, Tim Brent, and Danny Richmond meet the criteria making them exempt from re-entry waivers.

In addition to getting the top AHLers who are exempt from re-entry waivers, this strategy of paying high AHL salaries makes it difficult for budget NHL teams to claim these players when placed on waivers for assignment to Toronto Marlies.  Their budget has little room for the high AHL salary if the borderline NHLer can't stick with their team.

Next season, Matt Lashoff will meet the "elite" depth player criteria.  Tim Brent needs to be assigned to the AHL for at least 3 NHL games to maintain his re-entry waiver exempt status.  Newly acquired Fabian Brunnstrom will not qualify for an "elite" depth player contract.  In fact, Burke may place him on re-entry waivers before the end of the season with the hope another team claims him at half NHL salary so Toronto has room for a college free agent signing.  Brian Burke did it two years ago with Staffan Kronwell to make roster room to sign college free agents Tyler Bozak and Christian Hanson.

A final consideration is an AHL rule requiring each team to dress at least 11 players who played fewer than 320 professional games in the NHL, AHL, and ECHL.  This is easy for Toronto to manage with the overall youth in its organization.

Below, you see a table listing the 48 players currently on the 50 Active Player Roster plus prospects on Toronto's 90 Player Reserve list who are eligible to play in either the NHL and AHL.  We list each player's age in brackets.  NHL roster players are in bold letters.  Players who will be exempt from waivers are in italics.  "Elite" Depth contract players are identified with an *.  Prospects who become unrestricted free agents if unsigned by this summer are identified with a **.  Junior players already signed to a professional contract are identified with a ***.  AHL players trending to have fewer than 320 professional games played by the end of the season are identified with an x.

	Under Contract	UFAs	RFAs	Prospects
1	J.Finger (31)	J.S. Giguere (33)	J. Mitchell (26)	M. Frattin (23)**
2	F.Beauchemin(30)	T. Kaberle (32)	D. Boyce (26)x	L. Komarov (23)
3	B. Lebda (29)	M.Zigomannis(30)*	D. Richmond (26)*	B. Winnett (21)**
4	M.Komisarek (29)	F. Sjostrom (27)	A. Foster (26)	D. Brodin (20)
5	C. Armstrong (28)	J. Crabb (27)*	C. MacArthur (25)	J. Flaake (20)
6	C. Orr (28)	T. Brent (27)*	M. Brown (25)	J.Blacker (19)***
7	M. Grabovski (27)		J. Rosehill (25)	J.Devane (19)***
8	J.Gustavsson(26)		F. Brunnstrom (25)x	K. Ryan (19)
9	D. Phaneuf (25)		R. Hamilton (25)x	B. Smith (19)
10	N. Kulemin (24)		T. Bozak (24)	S. Olden (18)
11	K. Versteeg (24)		C.Gunnarsson(24)	P.Granberg (18)
12	P. Kessel (23)		C. Hanson (24)x
13	J. Rynnas (23)x		B. Scrivens (24)x
14	S. Gysbers (23)x		M. Lashoff (24)
15	M. Mueller (22)x		B. Irwin (23)x
16	K. Holzer (22)x		J. Reimer (22)x
17	J. Mikus (22)x		L. Caputi (22)x
18	R. Slaney (22)x		G. Scott (22)x
19	K. Aulie (21)x		L. Schenn (21)
20	R. Greenop (21)x
21	D. Mitchell (21)x
22	N. Kadri (20)x
23	J. D'Amigo (19)x

The top candidates to go are in red.  You can expect Burke to shop Robert Slaney and Dale Mitchell where he offers to take in return an AHLer in the final year of a one-way NHL contract.  This will be similar to the Mikhail Stefanovich for Fabian Brunnstrom trade.  Effectively, Toronto gives a team budget relief in exchange for roster relief.  Ideally, Toronto will acquire an "elite" depth player candidate when making this type of trade.  A perfect candidate is Edmonton's Alexandre Giroux.  The 29-year-old has a $500k one-year one-way contract.  He is second in AHL scoring and meets the criteria for a "depth" player contract.

UFAs Tomas Kaberle, J. S. Giguere, and Fred Sjostrom are unlikely to return next season.  In total, this provides us with five strong candidates to be moved from the 50 Active Player Roster.  Finding six more candidates from the RFAs and remaining UFAs will be challenging.  Of course, this number goes up if you can't move all of the top five candidates.  I have taken the liberty of identifying the top ten candidates when considering which five to move.  These players might end up as throw-ins for a bigger trade.

Be prepared to see a steady flow of prospects and depth players moved each year from the 50 Active Player Roster to make room for new prospects.  The 50 Active Player Roster is a constraint put in place to prevent large market teams from having a competitive advantage in player development over budget teams.

Brian Burke has found a way to maximize Toronto's financial strength by augmenting draft choices with Entry Level free agents.  This allows him to package prospects to acquire players such as Kris Versteeg.  Expect more of these types of trades at a minor level such as the Matt Lashoff trade.  However, the rules of the game can easily change in 2012 with the next collective bargaining agreement.  This might especially be so when the small market teams see a disadvantage when compared to Toronto.

In two weeks time, we will explore the "Catching the Big Fish" trade in Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3.

Post Script - Same Day

You can find frequent updates on Leafs Prospects and Entry Level Free Agents from Hockey Buzz writer Brian Huddle at http://leafnationweekly.blogspot.com  Follow Brian Huddle on Twitter @brianhuddle.

Post Script - 20-Jan-2011

In case you missed it last week Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 1

Post Script 2-Feb-2011

Follow-on to this post Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 3 - Catching the Big Fish

Post Script 14-Feb-2011

Brian Burke's Next Trade - Part 4 - Tomas Kaberle and the "Time Machine" Trade

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