Reviewing Toronto Maple Leafs Forwards after 41 Games

Toronto's Power Play Ranks 13th in NHL

Welcome to the second quarterly review of Toronto Maple Leafs forwards.  The 2nd line (now called 1st line by many) was the biggest surprise.  In the 20 game review, I declared the 2nd line to be one of the best in the league and proclaimed it to be unrealistic to expect more from this line.  Yet, they have increased their scoring production.  But, we still wait for increased scoring production from the first line.  Fortunately, the third line has started producing at a proper pace.

Overall Stats

Toronto has dropped to 22nd from 10th in NHL Goals Against per game.  This is a result of dropping to 10th from 4th in NHL Shots per game.  However, Toronto now leads the NHL with the fewest times shorthanded.  In addition, it's penalty killing has gone up to 26th from 27th.  Frankly, the team should rely on better goaltending instead of better defensive play from the forwards to improve on its goals against.

The power play remains strong as it has advanced to 13th from 15th.

Information Used to Assess Lines and Players

There are 3 players to a line and 30 teams in the NHL.  As a result, one can set performance thresholds for each line by looking at the goal scoring league wide in segments of 90 forwards.  Within these segments, you can designate a playoff and non-playoff echelon based on 16 teams making the playoffs.

Reviewing last season's statistics shows a player must score 21 goals to be in the top 90 NHL goal scorers.  In other words, scoring at least 21 goals is first-line quality scoring.  Scoring at least 25 goals is playoff quality first line performance.  Furthermore, 32 or more goals will place you at the top 16 goal scorer level in the league.

Second line quality scoring is 14 to 21 goals where the playoff echelon is 17 to 21 goals.  Third line quality is 9 to 14 goals with 11 to 14 goals as the range for the playoff echelon.  Fourth line quality is 4 to 9 goals with 6 to 9 goals for the playoff echelon.

You may have your own criteria for assessing goal scoring performance.  However, most people are satisfied with benchmarking against the league.

Age is another factor.  Ages 24 to 26 are typically a player's peak scoring years.  You can assume players younger than 24 will improve as they get older.  After the age of 30, players tend to decline.  The ones who excelled before the age of 24 tend to take longer to decline versus the others.  In other words, they can sustain good performance into their 30s.

Scoring percentage is another consideration when evaluating players.  For me, a player must have at least a 10% scoring percentage to get regular ice time.  You can make exceptions for exceptional play makers.  Otherwise, the player should be slotted for fourth line duty.

First line  Getting proper line-mates for Phil Kessel has been a problem.  Nazem Kadri couldn't sustain his production from his first six games and Tyler Bozak had woeful scoring production up until Christmas.  However, Joey Crabb replaced Kadri with adequate play and Tyler Bozak scored 3 goals and 3 assists in his last 7 games.  There is upside to this line if Tyler Bozak can duplicate last season's finish.

Phil Kessel   RW   GP - 41   G - 18   A - 12   Pts - 30   Pct - 10.3%

Age 23.  6'0" 202 lbs.  Presently on pace to score 36 goals.  Expect his pace to pick up in the second half of the season because he is 23 years old.  One season away from his peak playing years.  Presently tied for 11th in NHL Goal Scoring.  Has more goals scored than any player on Boston, Montreal, Buffalo, and Ottawa.  Needs better scoring production from line-mates.

Tyler Bozak   C   GP - 41   G - 7   A - 10   Pts - 17   Pct - 10.1%

Age 24.  6'1" 195 lbs.  Has ended his scoring slump by scoring 3 goals and 3 assists in the last 7 games.  Last season, scored 7 goals and 12 assists in 21 games during February and March.  A repeat performance will give the line more upside scoring.  51.6% on faceoffs.

Joey Crabb   LW   GP - 9   G - 0   A - 5   Pts - 5   Pct - 0.0%

Age 27.  6'1" 190 lbs.  Doing spade work for the line.  Good depth player filling in an existing hole.  Unlikely to be anything more than a temporary solution.  

With the slow development of Kadri, Toronto needs a solid rebound from Tyler Bozak and a big trade to fully leverage Kessel's scoring ability.  Otherwise, Burke will have to wait until the off-season to retool this line.  Perhaps, Kadri gets recalled if he gets hot in the AHL and Crabb or Bozak cools off.

Second Line  Outstanding in every way.  Probably the best second lines in the league.  Being called teams first line.  Delivering first line results with second line playing time.  All three players are playing to their full potential.  In the 20 game review, stated it is unrealistic to expect more scoring production from this line.  Yet, they have delivered more.

Clarke MacArthur   LW   GP - 41   G - 12   A - 22   Pts - 34  Pct - 16.4%

Age 25.  6'0" 190 lbs.  Can score 25 goals this season.  Playing very well with Grabovski and Kulemin.    Shots on goal declined because he is doing more play making.

Nikolai Kulemin   LW/RW   GP - 41   G - 16  A - 14   Pts - 30   Pct - 17.0%

Age 24.  6'1 225 lbs.  Biggest skill forward.  Strong on skates.  Hard to knock from puck.  Now shooting more.  Scored 9 goals in the last 21 games played.  Be prepared for him to crack the 30 goal mark.

Mikhail Grabovski - Age 26.  GP - 40   G - 17   A - 16   Pts - 33   Pct - 14.4%

Age 26.  5'11" 183 lbs.  Scored 12 goals in the last 20 games.  Continues to surprise everyone.  Has more goals scored than any player on Boston, Montreal, Buffalo, and Ottawa.  

Another team will have to offer something awfully good for Burke part with any of these players on his so-called second line.  All three players are in the peak years of their playing career.

Third Line  Doing the job defensively.  Hitting and blocking shots plus taking away the puck from the opposition.  Now a scoring threat with the return of Armstrong and the additions of Versteeg and Boyce.  Need more size on the line.

Kris Versteeg    RW/LW   GP - 40   G - 12   A - 19   Pts - 31   Pct - 11.3%

Age 24.  5'10"  182 lbs.  Leading forwards in blocked shots and take aways.  Established 20-goal scorer on pace for 25 goals.  25 goal pace in spite of his slow start.  Plays a big role on the team's power play.  Don't rule out Versteeg returning to 1st line play if Toronto acquires a big centre for the 1st line.

Colby Armstrong   RW/LW    GP - 25   G - 5   A - 5   Pts - 10   Pct - 17.2%

Age 28.  6'2"  195 lbs.  Size, toughness, aggressiveness, and an NHL shot.  Nothing more needs to be said.

Darryl Boyce   C   GP - 6   G - 2   A - 2   Pts - 4   Pct - 40.0%

Age 26.  6'0" 200 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, and scores.  Needs to improve on 43.6% face-off pct.  Team will want a bigger version him Darryl Boyce.  Sounds like Tim Brent at the start of the season.

The third line needs to get big players with NHL shots for Toronto to be more competitive.  Presently, only Colby Armstrong meets the requirements.  The continued development of Christian Hanson and Marcel Mueller can result in the needed size in the second half of the season..

Fourth Line  Teams no longer run Leafs out of the rink.

Colton Orr   RW   GP - 41   G - 2   A - 0   Pts - 2   Pct - 16.7%

Age 28.  6'3" 222 lbs.  Nobody runs Toronto out of the rink when Colton Orr is on the bench.  A big difference from two years ago when other teams were running Mike Van Ryn through the glass.

Mike Brown   LW/RW   GP - 22   G - 1   A - 1   Pts - 2   Pct - 4.0%

Age 25.  5'11" 205 lbs.  Hitting, blocking shots, skating, and fighting.  What more can you ask for from a $537k cap salary fourth liner?

Tim Brent   C   GP - 40   G - 3   A - 3   Pts - 6   Pct - 10.3%

Age 26.  6'0" 188 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, and scores.  Needs to improve on 49.8% face-off pct.  Team will want a bigger version of Tim Brent.

Fred Sjostrom   LW   GP - 40   G - 1   A - 4   Pts - 5   Pct - 2.6%

Age 27.  6'1" 218 lbs.  Leading forwards in hits.  Good hard skater.  Scoring pct is too far below 10% to play on the third line.  Relegated to 4th line when Armstrong returned to active play.  It will be interesting to see what happens to Sjostrom when Mike Brown returns from his injury.  Sjostrom is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season.

John Mitchell   C/LW   GP - 23   G - 2   A - 1   Pts - 3   Pct - 7.1%

Age 25.  6'1" 204 lbs.  Good skating speed and above average face-off performance.  55.7% faceoff pct.  No longer can be considered a prospect.

With small players for top six forwards, Toronto needs a big tough 4th line.  Brown and Orr meet the requirements.

Prospects

Nazem Kadri   LW   GP - 17   G - 0   A - 6     Pts - 6     Pct - 0.0%     (NHL)

                                GP - 18   G - 7   A - 11   Pts - 18   Pct - 14.6%   (AHL)

Age 20.  6'0" 185 lbs.  Called up sooner than planned to help team address scoring problem.  Helped trigger the power play.  However, slumped to only 2 assists in 11 games before being assigned to Marlies.  Has scored 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 games played since returning to AHL.  Don't be surprised to see him return to NHL play if he becomes hot in the AHL.

Christian Hanson   C   GP - 3     G - 0     A - 0     Pts - 0     Pct - 0.0%     (NHL)

                                    GP - 31   G - 10   A - 10   Pts - 20   Pct - 14.1%   (AHL)

Age 24.  6'4" 228 lbs.  Big.  Strong on face-offs.  Has found his scoring touch in the past two months.  Scored 7 goals and 7 assists in he last 17 AHL games played.  Expect him to be called up by the trade deadline.

Marcel Mueller   LW   GP - 39   G - 7   A - 13   Pts - 20   Pct - 9.7%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'3" 232 lbs.  Rebounded from an extremely slow start in the first two months.  Scored 6 goals and 9 assists in the last 18 AHL games played.  Good chance of getting called up to NHL by trade deadline.  Will be the biggest forward on the Leafs if called up.  Will add much needed size to third line.

Matt Frattin   RW   GP - 23   G - 20   A - 8   Pts - 28   Pct - 21.2%   (Univ of North Dakota)

Age 22.  6'2" 205 lbs.  Currently leads WCHA in goals scored.  Almost double the number of the second best goal scorer.  Final year in US College hockey.  Certain to be a Hobey Baker trophy candidate.  Will be ready to turn pro this spring.  Toronto's fourth round draft pick in 2007 Entry Draft.  Viktor Stalberg scored 24 goals in 39 games when he was a Hobey Baker trophy candidate in his final year of college hockey.

Mike Zigomannis   C   GP - 8     G - 0   A - 1     Pts - 1     Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)
                                   GP - 33   G - 5   A - 17   Pts - 22   Pct - 6.7%   (AHL)

Age 29.  6'0"  200 lbs.  20-2-8-10  Versatile.  $500k cap salary gives team cap flexibility.  Doesn't need to clear re-entry waivers when recalled from AHL.  Scored 2 goals and 8 assists in last 20 AHL games.  Strictly a depth player.

Justin Hodgman  C   GP - 31   G - 8   A - 13   Pts - 21   Pct - 15.1%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'1"  203 lbs.  Slowed down after fast start in AHL.  Scored 2 goals and 4 assists in last 13 AHL games played.  Not eligible for NHL play because not on Toronto's 50 Active Player roster.

Brayden Irwin   C   GP - 39   G - 7   A - 7   Pts - 14   Pct - 10.0%   (AHL)

Age 23.  6'5" 215 lbs.  Key development year for him.  Already has NHL shot.  Needs to work on his skating.  Slow progress in development.  Scored 4 goals and 2 assists in last 19 AHL games played.

Jerry D'Amigo   LW/RW   GP - 32   G - 4   A - 6   Pts - 10   Pct - 8.9%   (AHL)

Age 19.  5'11" 208 lbs.  Has potential to develop fast.  Seems to have regressed in the past two months.  Scored 1 goal and 2 assists in last 9 AHL games played.  Still very young with high upside.

Luca Caputi   LW   GP - 7     G - 0   A - 0   Pts - 0   Pct - 0.0%   (NHL)

                               GP - 11   G - 1   A - 4   Pts - 0   Pct - 3.2%   (AHL)

Age 22.  6'3"  200 lbs.  Having a disappointing season.  Will not be waiver exempt by next season.  Might be moved to make room for Justin Hodgman on the 50 Active Player roster.  Jiri Tlusty was in similar situation last season where he faced losing his waiver exemption at end of season and Toronto did not have room for Mike Zigomannis on the 50 Active Player roster.

Conclusion  Brian Burke is in a strong position from a player management/development perspective.  He can improve the team by simply letting the young players (up to the ages of 24) develop by getting experience.  He also has cap space, prospects, and a wealth of top six forwards to invite trade offers and hold his ground in trade negotiations.

Ultimately, improving the first line provides him with the greatest chance for improving the team's goal scoring.  Expecting more from the second line may not be realistic.  The bottom six forwards needs more size.  This will be addressed by the arrival of Christian Hanson and Marcel Mueller.  The fourth line should be strictly for role players as long as six goals is within their reach.  Sacrificing team toughness or a face-off man for a couple of more goals does not make sense.

If Burke acquires a top 3 players within the year, it will be ideal if the player's age is within the range of Kadri and Kessel.

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Assessing Toronto Maple Leafs Forwards after 20 Games

Toronto Maple Leafs Showing Signs of
Responding to Ron Wilson's Coaching

We have lots of stats to throw at you.  The forwards are working hard and providing good defensive play.  Second line is providing top performance and delivering first line results with second line playing time.  The first line needs to score more goals.  But, the two key players on it are 20 and 23 years old.  Lots of upside for the line.  Third line needs more size and scoring.  But, will it come at the expense of defensive play?  Fourth line is tough, aggressive and provides adequate scoring.

Overall Stats

Goals against per game has improved to 10th in the NHL compared to 29th last season.  Being 4th in shots against per game compared to 13th last season has helped reduce goals against.  Fewer penalties is another big contributer.  Toronto is now 6th in penalties per game compared to 19th last season.  As a group, the forwards have shown strong disciplined defensive play.

Penalty killing has only seen marginal improvement where Toronto ranks 27th in the NHL compared to last the previous season.

The power play is another recent improvement.  Toronto has the 15th best power play compared to the worst last season.  This improvement came with the addition of Nazem Kadri and Kris Versteeg to the first power play.

Information Used to Assess Lines and Players

There are 3 players to a line and 30 teams in the NHL.  As a result, one can set performance thresholds for each line by looking at the goal scoring league wide in segments of 90 players.  Within these segments, you can designate a playoff and non-playoff echelon based on 16 teams making the playoffs.

Reviewing last season's statistics shows a player must score 21 goals to be in the top 90 NHL goal scorers.  In other words, scoring at least 21 goals is first-line quality scoring.  Scoring at least 25 goals is playoff quality first line performance.  Furthermore, 32 or more goals will place you at the top 16 goal scorer level in the league.

Second line quality scoring is 14 to 21 goals where the playoff echelon is 17 to 21 goals.  Third line quality is 9 to 14 goals with 11 to 14 goals as the range for the playoff echelon.  Fourth line quality is 4 to 9 goals with 6 to 9 goals for the playoff echelon.

You may have your own criteria for assessing goal scoring performance.  However, most people are satisfied with benchmarking against the league.

Age is another factor.  Ages 24 to 26 are typically a player's peak scoring years.  You can assume players younger than 24 will improve as they get older.  After the age of 30, players tend to decline.  The ones who excelled before the age of 24 tend to take longer to decline versus the others.  In other words, they can sustain good performance into their 30s.

Scoring percentage is another consideration when evaluating players.  For me, a player must have at least a 10% scoring percentage to get regular ice time.  You can make exceptions for exceptional play makers.  Otherwise, the player should be slotted for fourth line duty.

First line  Very young.  Potential not yet fully realized.  Kessel's line mates need to pick up their scoring.  Nazem Kadri is an excellent addition.  His "magic hands", as Don Cherry calls them, are finding ways to setup Phil Kessel.

Phil Kessel   RW   GP - 20   G - 9   A - 4   Pts - 13   Pct - 13.4%

Age 23.  6'0" 202 lbs.  Presently on pace to score 36 goals.  Expect his pace to pick up as the season progresses.  People say, when Kessel scores more goals, Leafs win more games.  Tied for 4th in NHL with 3 game winning goals.  Last season, NHL leader had 9 game winning goals.

Tyler Bozak   C   GP - 20   G - 3   A - 3   Pts - 6   Pct - 7.7%

Age 24.  6'1" 195 lbs.  A trying season both personally and professionally.  He is delivering disappointing results while entering the peak of his playing career.  Went through a nine game stretch with only scoring one point after a friend and past team mate, Jesse Martin, suffered a tragic spinal injury while playing college hockey.  55.9% on faceoffs.  Will be given opportunities to work through his issues as long as no alternatives exist.

Nazem Kadri   LW   GP - 5   G - 0   A - 4   Pts - 4   Pct - 0.0%

Age 20.  6'0" 188 lbs.  Called up sooner than planned to help team address scoring problem.  Helped trigger the power play.  Has uncanny ability to find players on the ice with his passing.  Might become first line centre within the season.  Getting assists at a pace of an elite play-maker.

With Kessel and Kadri, this line is one elite player away from being a force.  Ideally, you want to add someone within their age range so they can grow together.  If Burke can't acquire a player, he will need Jerry D'Amigo to develop rapidly which is very possible with his high ceiling of talent.

Second Line  Outstanding in every way.  One of the best second lines in the league.  Being called teams first line.  Delivering first line results with second line playing time.  All three players are playing to their full potential.

Clarke MacArthur   LW   GP - 20   G - 7   A - 11   Pts - 18   Pct - 16.3%

Age 25.  6'0" 190 lbs.  Need a full season to evaluate him.  History of slumping in second half after fast start.  However, he should get 180 shots if he maintains his playing time.  This can translate into 27 goals with his career 15% scoring pct.  MacArthur knows how to trail the play in order to pick up rebounds.  A rare skill on the Leafs for the past few years.

Nikolai Kulemin   LW/RW   GP - 20   G - 7   A - 6   Pts - 13   Pct - 17.1%

Age 24.  6'1 225 lbs.  Biggest skill forward.  Uses his speed to burst through holes.  Good shot.  Strong on skates.  Hard to knock from puck.  Needs to shoot more.  Sure potential 20 goal scorer.  Solid top six player.  Be prepared for him to crack the 25 goal mark.

Mikhail Grabovski - Age 26.  GP - 20   G - 5   A - 11   Pts - 16   Pct - 11.4%

Age 26.  5'11" 183 lbs.  Must be the biggest surprise this season after experiencing a drop in scoring last season.  One of the few players on the team who plays well down low on the power play.

Brian Burke and Ron Wilson have an interesting dilemma on their hands.  There are two other prospects with the potential of becoming top six forwards within another season plus Kris Versteeg on the third line.  Do they graduate Kulemin or MacArthur to the first line to make room on the second line for any of these players?  Perhaps, try Kris Versteeg with Kessel and Kadri when they feel Kadri can handle playing centre.  Or, do they package two or three of the players in a trade for a top three forward?

Third Line  Doing the job defensively.  Hitting and blocking shots.  Weak scoring.  Scoring threat will be adequate when Colby Armstrong returns.

Kris Versteeg    RW/LW   GP - 19   G - 6   A - 6   Pts - 12   Pct - 13.0%

Age 24.  5'10"  182 lbs.  Leading forwards in blocked shots.  Established 20-goal scorer.  Might not have much upside.  25 goals is most he has ever scored in a season in junior, AHL, and NHL.  Yet, he is on a 25 goal pace in spite of his slow start.  Most importantly, Versteeg has pole-vaulted the teams power-play.  Tied for 8th NHL 4 PP goals.

Colby Armstrong   RW/LW    GP - 8   G - 1   A - 0   Pts - 1   Pct - 20.0%

Age 28.  6'2"  195 lbs.  Size, toughness, aggressiveness, and an NHL shot.  Nothing more needs to be said.

Tim Brent   C   GP - 20   G - 2   A - 1   Pts - 3   Pct - 11.8%

Age 26.  6'0" 188 lbs.  Is doing almost everything asked of him.  Hits, blocks shots, and scores.  Needs to improve on 48.3% face-off pct.  Team will want a bigger version of Tim Brent.

Fred Sjostrom   LW   GP - 20   G - 1   A - 1   Pts - 2   Pct - 4.3%

Age 27.  6'1" 218 lbs.  Leading forwards in hits.  Good hard skater.  Scoring pct is too far below 10% to play on the third line.  It will be interesting to see where he is placed when Armstrong returns.

The third line needs to get big players with NHL shots for Toronto to be more competitive.  Presently, only Colby Armstrong meets the requirements.  The team's fate depends on the development of Brayden Irwin, Christian Hanson, Luca Caputi, and Marcel Mueller.

Fourth Line  Teams no longer run Leafs out of the rink.

Colton Orr   RW   GP - 20   G - 2   A - 0   Pts - 2   Pct - 33.3%

Age 28.  6'3" 222 lbs.  Nobody runs Toronto out of the rink when Colton Orr is on the bench.  A big difference from two years ago when other teams were running Mike Van Ryn through the glass.

Mike Brown   LW/RW   GP - 20   G - 1   A - 1   Pts - 2   Pct - 4.5%

Age 25.  5'11" 205 lbs.  Hitting, blocking shots, skating, and fighting.  What more can you ask for from a $537k cap salary fourth liner?

John Mitchell   C/LW   GP - 11   G - 0   A - 1   Pts - 1   Pct - 0.0%

Age 25.  6'1" 204 lbs.  One-way contract means losing John Mitchell for the season if you waive him to the minors.  He must clear re-entry waivers to get recalled.  Speed and above average face-off performance.  Yet, hard to trust in key situations.  53.8% faceoff pct.  Job in jeapordy when face-off performance drops.  Must focus on improving the small parts (faceoffs and shot blocking) of his game.  Must win Ron Wilson's trust to play him in key situations to remain long term.

Toronto needs a clutch face-off centre on the fourth line to be competitive.  Tyler Bozak and Christian Hanson may be destined for this role.

Prospects

Luca Caputi   LW   GP - 6   G - 0   A - 0   Pts - 0   Pct - 0.0%

Age 22.  6'3"  200 lbs.  Should be able to play in NHL at age 22 if a true top six player.  He will have a problem with waiver rules by next season.  Needs to block shots and kills penalties to be a third line player.  Must use time in AHL to rediscover his scoring touch.

Christian Hanson   C   GP - 3   G - 0   A - 0   Pts - 0   Pct - 0.0%

Age 24.  6'4" 228 lbs.  Big.  Strong on face-offs.  Not an NHL scoring threat.  Must find scoring touch in AHL to be considered third line potential.

Mike Zigomannis   C   GP - 8   G - 0   A - 1   Pts - 1   Pct - 0.0%

Age 29.  6'0"  200 lbs.  Versatile.  $500k cap salary will guarantee him a spot as the spare forward when Leafs get close to the cap after making a big trade.  Doesn't need to clear re-entry waivers when recalled from AHL.

Jerry D'Amigo   LW/RW   GP - 21   G - 3   A - 4   Pts - 7   Pct - 10.7%   (AHL)

Age 19.  5'11" 208 lbs.  Scored six points in his last nine games after a slow start to the season.  Watch his development.  Has potential to develop fast.

Matt Frattin   RW   GP - 14   G - 12   A - 3   Pts - 15   Pct - 25.0%   (Univ of North Dakota)

Age 22.  5'11" 187 lbs.  Currently leads WCHA in goals scored.  Final year in University hockey.  Will be ready to turn pro this spring.  Toronto's fourth round draft pick in 2007 Entry Draft.

Brayden Irwin   C   GP - 20   G - 3   A - 6   Pts - 9   Pct - 11.1%   (AHL)

Age 23.  6'5" 215 lbs.  Key development year for him.  Already has NHL shot.  Needs to work on his skating.

Conclusion  Brian Burke is in a strong position from a player management/development perspective.  He can improve the team by simply letting the young players (up to the ages of 24) develop by getting experience.  He also has cap space, prospects, a wealth of top six forwards, and position in the standings to invite trade offers and hold his ground in trade negotiations.

Ultimately, improving the first line provides him with the greatest chance for improving the team's goal scoring.  Expecting more from the second line may not be realistic.  The third line can use some more goal scoring.  But, how much do you want to risk a decline in defensive play to squeeze out ten more goals from this line.  The fourth line should be strictly for role players as long as six goals is within their reach.  Sacrificing team toughness or a face-off man for a couple of more goals does not make sense.

If Burke acquires a top 3 players within the year, it will be ideal if the player's age is within the range of Kadri and Kessel.

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Dion Phaneuf - Most Leadership Shown by a Leaf Captain

Dion Phaneuf Convinced Clarke MacArthur
to Sign with Toronto Maple Leafs

Dion Phaneuf has shown the most leadership we have seen from any Leaf captain.

Yes, we remember Mats Sundin, Doug Gilmour, Wendel Clark, Rick Vaive, Darryl Sittler, Dave Keon, and George Armstrong.  All of them great captains.  There were others before George Armstrong.  But, that was before our time.

Wendel Clark showed exceptional leadership in standing up for his team and teammates.  One of the best team captains in NHL history.  Doug Gilmour and Darryl Sittler led by example on the ice.  They never backed down from a challenge.  There was quiet leadership from George Armstrong, Dave Keon, Rick Vaive, and Mats Sundin.  They garnered respect from their teammates.

Dion Phaneuf instantly clicked with Phil Kessel, our franchise player, when arriving to Toronto.  He showed an immediate physical presence by laying out New Jersey's Zach Parise and fighting Colin White in the first period of his first game as a Leaf.  He has taken highly touted rookie Nazem Kadri under his wing by having Nazem as a guest at his summer cottage in PEI (Prince Edward Island).  Each a good sign of leadership.

However, Dion's ultimate demonstration of leadership was persuading Clarke MacArthur to sign with Toronto Maple Leafs.  Clarke MacArthur, Dion Phaneuf's Team Canada teammate at 2005 World Juniors, "followed" Dion Phaneuf to Toronto.  

No one has seen this type of leadership from a Toronto Maple Leafs captain.

Key players (Carl Brewer, Jim Pappin, and Brian Conacher) jumped ship from Toronto while George Armstrong was captain.  Dave Keon "followed" other teammates (eight of them) to the WHA.  At best, Mats Sundin held ranks with Tomas Kaberle, Bryan McCabe, Darcy Tucker, and Pavel Kubina, the infamous Muskoka five,  in a co-ordinated effort  to refuse to waive their no-trade clauses.

But, never, have I seen players follow a Toronto Maple Leafs captain to Toronto.  Some may argue Dion's leadership attributes are just intangibles irrelevant if his presence does not change Toronto's losing ways.

But, Toronto's record is dramatically better when Dion plays.  Toronto's record is 18-15-4 for 40 points in 37 games with Dion Phaneuf playing.  This works out to 88 points when pro-rated to 82 games.

In 2008-2009, Toronto was 17-28-11 for 45 points in the 56 games played before acquiring Dion Phaneuf.  This season, Toronto is 0-2-2 for 2 points for the games without Phaneuf.  In total, Toronto's record for the games played without Dion Phaneuf in the past two seasons is 17-30-13 for 47 points in 60 games.  You can pro-rate this to 64 points for an 82 game season. 

Dion Phaneuf's impact on the team is about 24 additional points over an entire season.  This works out to 12 more wins.

Some in the media believe the absence of Vesa Toskala is the main reason for Toronto's improved record.  Break down the games without Dion Phaneuf into games with Toskala and without and you will find 7-12-3 record for 17 points in 22 games with Toskala and 10-18-10 record for 30 points in 38 games without Toskala (and Phaneuf).  You will see both records pro-rate to a 64 point season.  When Dion Phaneuf was out of the line-up, Toronto was just as woeful without Toskala as it was with him.

The contractual decisions Shea Weber and Jeff Carter make this season may further hint at Dion's ability to draw other players.  Both of them were Dion's teammates on Team Canada's World Junior team as well.  They are due to be RFAs (Restricted Free Agents) eligible for arbitration at the end of this season.  If they choose arbitration, they will receive a one-year contract where they become UFAs (Unrestricted Free Agents) at its end.

Can Dion draw either one of them to Toronto if they believe they received a below market offer? Add in Weber growing tired of being on a team with lesser financial means to win and Carter weary of not getting the role he believes he deserves. If the answer is yes, it is a nice change from the past.

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Update 14th of November, 2010

Jeff Carter signed an 11-year contract $58 mil contract within hours of this blog post.  Scratch his name off the list.  However, Atlanta Thrasher Andrew Ladd and Chicago Black Hawks Brent Seabrook were also Team Canada 2005 World Junior teammates of Dion Phaneuf.  Nashville Predators will talk with Shea Weber's agent when Nashville plays Toronto this week.