Rating the Phil Kessel Trade One Year Later

Phil Kessel - Bargain at $5.4 mil Cap Salary

Let me start by saying the Phil Kessel trade between Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins to be a great deal for Toronto.  I have always held this belief from the day the trade was announced.  I do acknowledge a high price was paid with two first round and one second round draft picks.  But, it was worth it.

Like others, I assessed the trade by evaluating the two types assets involved in the trade: (1) Players; and (2) Draft Picks.  Lately, I have gained an appreciation for an additional asset involved in the trade but rarely mentioned.

At the start, I came to my conclusion with two premises.  First, Phil Kessel is a potential to be a 50-goal scorer.  Second, it is hard to get 50-goal scorers.

When Boston drafted Tyler Seguin with the first of two first round draft picsk from Toronto, I concluded comparing Phil Kessel to Tyler Seguin is not the best way to evaluate the trade.  The trade's success for Toronto depends on Brian Burke's ability to do another transaction similar to this one.  He must keep his salary cap clean, have draft picks available, and hope another team has problems resigning its elite player.

Phil Kessel is a Potential 50 Goal Scorer.  This, I believed from the very day he was traded to Toronto.  He was drafted fifth overall in the 2006 Entry draft and scored 36 goals at the age of 21.  Typically, goal scorers have their best years between the ages of 24 and 26.  You can expect a 50 goal scorer to have his first 50-goal season before the age of 27.  You have to look back 15 years to find  an NHL player who became a 50 goal scorers at a later age.

Too illustrate the significance of his 36 goals at age 21, I have created table, shown below, listing all the 50-goal scorers since the lockout season with their goals scored at age 21 with some exceptions.  Ilya Kovalchuk's goals are from age 20 because he was 21 during the lockout season and Steven Stamkos' goals are from age 19 because he just turned 20.

Goals at Age 21 - Phil Kessel and Post Lockout 50-Goal Scorers

Player	Goals At 21	Drafted	Draft Year	Cap Salary 2009/2010	Comments
Steven Stamkos	51*	1st	2008	$3.72 mil	Goals at age 19
Alex Ovechkin	46	1st	2004	$9.53 mil	52 Goals at age 20
Ilya Kovalchuk	41*	1st	2001	$6.38 mil	Goals at age 20
Dany Heatley	41	2nd	2000	$7.50 mil	50 Goals at age 25
Phil Kessel	36	5th	2006	$5.40 mil	Now age 23
Sydney Crosby	33	1st	2005	$8.70 mil	50 Goals at age 22
Jaromir Jagr	32	5th	1990	$7.00 mil	Now in KHL age 39
Jarome Iginla	28	11th	1995	$7.00 mil	52 Goals at age 24
Vincent Lecavalier	20	1st	1998	$7.72 mil	52 Goals at age 26
Jonathon Cheechoo	21*	29th	1998	$3.00 mil	In AHL at age 21

As the table shows, at age 21, he compares very well to the 50 goal scorers.  A few weeks ago, Toronto Maple Leafs coach Ron Wilson did predict Phil Kessel will score over 40 goals this season at age 23.  We have many real reasons to believe Phil Kessel will prove Wilson correct.  This includes his fast start of five goals in his first five games played.

A player is on the verge of becoming a 50 scoring when he scores 40 goals before the age of 24.  Below is a table slotting Phil Kessel with the other potential 50 goal scorers.

Goals at Age 21 - Potential 50-Goal Scorers 

Player	Goals At 21	Drafted	Draft Year	Cap Salary 2009/2010	Age at Start of 2010-2011
Evgeni Malkin	47	2nd	2004	$8.70 mil	24
Phil Kessel	36	5th	2006	$5.40 mil	23
Rick Nash	31	1st	2002	$7.80 mil	26
Eric Staal	30	2nd	2003	$8.25 mil	25
Thomas Vanek	25	5th	2003	$7.14 mil	26

50 Goal Scorers are Hard to Get.  You typically acquire them with a first round draft pick.  You have just over a 70% chance with the first overall pick.  Anything less and your odds dropp drastically.  In fact, without a top five pick, getting a 50-goal scorer from the draft is virtually hopeless.

Last season, only three players (Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos, and Sydney Crosby) scored 50 goals.  Two of them did it for the first time!  Since the lockout, only nine players have been 50-goals scorers.  Three of them (Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Jarome Iginla) were traded before the age of 27.  Most notably, two of them (Dany Heatley and Ilya Kovalchuk) were traded from Atlanta Thrashers.

In short, if you want a 50-goal scorer, you should hope your team or Atlanta Thrashers have one of the top two picks in the Entry Draft.

To reiterate the point, only one NHL franchise has drafted more than three 50-goal scorers in its franchise history.  Pittsburgh Penguins has drafted seven 50-goal scorers with their first round draft picks.  The next best is three 50-goal scorers by Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, Winnipeg Jets, and Minnesota North Stars/Dallas Stars.  Interestingly, Montreal Canadiens only drafted two 50-goal scorers with its first round draft picks in spite of being notorious for acquiring first round draft picks from poor performing teams.  Edmonton Oilers never drafted a 50-goal scorer with its first round draft picks.

First round draft picks are money in the bank only when you finish dead last.  As shown in the first table, most 50 goal scorers are drafted first overall.  It is almost impossible to draft a 50 goal scorer without selecting the first forward in the entry draft.  A franchise cannot plan on having these coveted draft picks without being god awful and risk going defunct or trading most of its self-respect. 

Phil Kessel's Contract is the Hidden Asset in the Trade.  Phil Kessel was immediately signed to a $5.4 million cap salary five-year contract when traded to Toronto.  It is a bargain when you compare it to the 50 goal scorers and potential 50 goal scorers.  This type of players usually costs at least $7 mil in cap salary.

Steven Stamkos is the only player with a lower cap salary.  He is on an entry level contract which has a cap salary limit and expires at the end of this season.  Expect him to get at least $7 mil on his next contract.  Perhaps more than Ovechkin's $9.53 if other teams pursue this RFA.  He may even receive a max cap offer of $11.88 mil.  Max cap is the maximum amount a player can be paid which is 20% of a team's salary cap $59.4 mil.

Phil Kessel's $5.4 mil cap salary is a significant reason why Toronto currently has $4.7 mil cap space and will be well positioned to pursue elite RFAs (Restricted Free Agents) at the end of this season.  Steven Stamkos, Shea Weber, Jeff Carter, Zach Parise, and Brent Seabrook are some of the elite RFA who do not have their contracts extended.

As said at the start, the full success of this trade depends on doing another deal like it.  Adding another elite player to play with Phil Kessel will make Toronto Maple Leafs a force to contend with for many years.  Brian Burke has prepared Toronto to follow through with this pursuit by having the cap space and draft picks in place for off-season.  All without trading an ounce of self-respect.

Ecklund, Spectorshockey, and mynhltraderumors will have a field day with RFA rumours. Toronto's Cap Nation will follow them with great interest.  This is much better than joining Tank Nation to cheer your team to last place.

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