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Monday, March 21, 2011

Assessing Toronto Maple Leafs' Playoff Run - Part 2 - Dion Phaneuf's Revival

Dion Phaneuf is 2nd Highest Scoring Defenceman
Since the NHL All-Star Break
As of Sunday evening on 20th of March 2011, Toronto Maple Leafs are 2 - 2 - 0 in the past week to bring their record to 13 - 6 - 5 since the all-star break.  This leaves them in 10th place, 5 points out of 8th place and final playoff position in the Eastern Conference with 9 games remaining in their season.  This includes one scheduled on 29th of March against 8th place Buffalo Sabres.

As indicated in last week's post, a closer look at the team's performance over this stretch of games provides an indication of what you can expect for the last 9 games of the season and next season.

Please note the players' age when reviewing the statistics.  It allows you to determine where a player is within their career.  Peak performing years are typically ages 24 to 26 for forwards; 26 to 28 for defenceman; and 26 to 30 for goaltenders.  Of course, there can be exceptions to this rule of thumb.  We list the player's age at the start of the season.

Toronto Maple Leafs Players Post All-Star Game 2010-11
Player
Age
Pos
GP
G
A
Pts
+/-
PPG
S%
Phil Kessel
23
RW
24
9
11
20
-2
4
10.6%
Nikolai Kulemin
24
RW
24
10
7
17
9
0
21.3%
Mikhail Grabovski
26
C
24
7
9
16
9
3
8.2%
Dion Phaneuf
25
D
24
6
9
15
4
3
9.5%
Clarke MacArthur
25
LW
24
5
8
13
-3
0
10.6%
Colby Armstrong
27
RW
17
2
9
11
7
0
6.9%
Tim Brent
27
C
24
2
8
10
2
0
9.5%
Joffrey Lupul
27
LW
19
4
5
9
-9
1
7.5%
Luke Schenn
20
D
24
2
6
8
-4
0
5.0%
Tomas Kaberle*
32
D
9
1
7
8
4
0
7.1%
Tyler Bozak
24
C
24
4
3
7
-13
1
14.3%
Darryl Boyce
26
C
24
2
5
7
8
0
20.0%
Joey Crabb
27
RW
22
3
3
6
1
0
11.5%
Carl Gunnarsson
23
D
21
0
6
6
-1
0
0.0%
Kris Versteeg*
24
LW
7
2
2
4
2
0
16.6%
Mike Brown
25
LW
15
1
2
3
1
0
6.3%
Brett Lebda
28
D
17
1
2
3
5
0
6.3%
Keith Aulie
21
D
17
2
0
2
0
0
6.3%
Nazem Kadri
19
C
3
1
1
2
2
0
16.2%
Jay Rosehill
25
LW
14
1
1
2
-2
0
12.5%
Francois Beauchemin*
30
D
5
1
0
1
-2
0
12.5%
Fredrick Sjostrom
27
LW
20
1
0
1
1
0
5.0%
Mike Komisarek
28
D
22
0
1
1
-3
0
0.0%
Matt Lashoff
24
D
3
0
0
0
1
0
0.0%
Christian Hanson
24
C
3
0
0
0
0
0
0.0%

Dion Phaneuf is the story when looking at Toronto skaters.  He is the hottest Toronto player in March with 4 goals and 4 assists in 10 games played.  The 9th overall draft pick from the 2003 Entry Draft is the second highest scoring NHL defenceman since the all-star break.  He appears to have returned to his old all-star form from a few years ago just as he is about to turn 26 years old in three weeks.

Phil Kessel continues to tantalize fans with his potential.  He leads the team in scoring.  He has the most assists on the team since the all-star break.  The 5th overall draft pick from 2006 Entry Draft has been setting up Kulemin and Phaneuf, the team's hottest players.  But, many fans believe he can produce more goals.  Will Phil Kessel take his game to the next level in the final two weeks of the season?  Who should be his line mates to give him the best opportunity to succeed?

Toronto added 20-year-old Nazem Kadri to its NHL roster after placing Colby Armstrong on Injury Reserve for the rest of the season.  He scored his first NHL goal and an assist in the third game after his recall.  So far, the 7th overall draft pick from the 2009 Entry Draft is getting ice time.  Kadri even played regular shifts with Phil Kessel in the first game of his recall.  Expect Ron Wilson to give them more shifts together if Kadri continues to produce points.

Toronto Maple Leafs Goalies Post All-Star Game 2010-11
Goalie
Age
GP
W
L
T
GA Avg
SO
Save Pct
James Reimer
22
20
11
4
4
2.73
2
.918
J-S Giguere
33
9
2
2
1
3.19
0
.906

James Reimer had a strong past week by going 2 - 1 - 0 with a .922 save percentage which improves his March record to 5 - 3 - 1 with a .909 save percentage.  J. S. Giguere is 0 - 1 - 0 in March with a .895 save percentage.  Expect Reimer to play every remaining game of the season as long as Toronto is in the playoff hunt because games on back-to-back days remain on the schedule.

Perhaps, the best way to view the Leafs playoff chances is to contrast them with the teams (New York Rangers, Atlanta Thrashers, Florida Panthers, and Buffalo Sabres) they were chasing after the all-star break.  We also include New Jersey Devils in the comparison because of their great playoff charge. 

Eastern Conference Playoff Race Scoring Post All-Star Game 2010-11
Player
Age
Team
GP
G
A
Pts
+/-
PPG
S%
Ryan Callahan
25
Rangers
21
13
10
23
-3
6
17.8%
Ilya Kovalchuk
27
New Jersey
22
12
10
22
11
2
15.7%
Thomas Vanek
26
Buffalo
22
7
14
21
9
1
11.2%
Phil Kessel
23
Toronto
24
9
11
20
-2
4
10.6%
Drew Stafford
24
Buffalo
21
11
7
18
9
3
19.0%
Nikolai Kulemin
24
Toronto
24
10
7
17
9
0
21.3%
Tyler Ennis
21
Buffalo
23
7
10
17
5
1
11.8%
Stephen Weiss
27
Florida
23
8
8
16
-2
2
18.2%
Erik Cole
31
Carolina
22
7
9
16
-5
0
12.5%
Mikhail Grabovski
26
Toronto
24
7
9
16
9
3
8.2%
Patrik Elias
34
New Jersey
22
3
13
16
1
0
4.9%

Toronto matches well on scoring against any playoff hunt team.  Conversely, so does Buffalo, the team they are chasing for the final spot.  Please note the absence of Carolina's Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner.  They have been ordinary since the all-star break.

Two hottest players in March are Ryan Callahan and Tyler Ennis.  Ryan Callahan has carried New York Rangers on his back by scoring 7 goals and 6 assists in 9 games played in March.  21-year-old Tyler Ennis has scored 6 goals and 4 assists in 11 games played in March.  Ilya Kovalchuk has 6 game winning goals since the all-star break and now leads the NHL on the season with 9 game winning goals.

Toronto's top players have to pick up their scoring pace if they want to make the playoffs.  At the same time, they need Buffalo's top players to go cold.  Perhaps Leafs coach Ron Wilson is mindful of how young Tyler Ennis has impacted Buffalo's chances when he makes decisions on where to play Nazem Kadri.  Any promising prospect younger than 24 years old can have a dramatic scoring outburst at this time of year just like Tyler Ennis.

There are interesting developments amongst the goaltenders in the playoff teams.

East Division Playoff Race Goalies Post All-Star Game 2010-11
Goalie
Age
Team
GP
W
L
T
GA Avg
SO
Save Pct
Johan Hedberg
37
New Jersey
10
7
1
1
1.43
2
.943
Cam Ward
26
Carolina
21
8
9
4
2.47
1
.924
Martin Brodeur
38
New Jersey
14
11
3
0
1.54
1
.923
James Reimer
22
Toronto
20
11
4
4
2.73
2
.918
Tomas Vokoun
34
Florida
15
4
9
2
2.82
0
.916
Henrik Lundqvist
28
Rangers
19
10
8
1
2.45
2
.912
Ryan Miller
30
Buffalo
20
9
7
4
2.68
0
.912
Ondrej Pavelec
23
Atlanta
15
3
8
2
3.50
0
.878

James Reimer has matched his counterparts in games played and wins while keeping a strong save percentage.  Martin Brodeur's save percentage has dropped down to within the pack with his two losses in the past week while Johan Hedberg has not played a minute in March.  Cam Ward is the hottest goalie in March with a .940 save percentage and 1.87 goals against average.  But, he can only muster a 4 - 3 - 1 winning record.

Ryan Miller and Henrik Lundqvist have been ordinary since the all-star break with a .912 save percentage but played competent enough to keep their team in a playoff position.  Toronto needs one these two goalies to have an unprecedented collapse in play while James Reimer continues his winning ways.  Regardless of the outcome, Reimer has proven he stacks up well against the best goalies in the world.

So, how did all of this impact these players respective teams?  Let's take a closer look.

Eastern Division Playoff Contending Teams Post All-Star Break Records
Team
GP
Wins
Losses
OT/SO
Points
Win Pct
vs Chase Teams
New Jersey
23
18
4
1
37
.804
9 - 0 - 1
Toronto
24
13
6
5
31
.645
7 - 1 - 2
Buffalo
23
12
7
4
28
.608
5 - 3 - 1
Rangers
21
10
10
1
21
.500
1 - 4 - 0
Carolina
22
8
10
4
20
.454
5 - 4 - 4
Florida
22
7
11
4
18
.409
3 - 2 - 3
Atlanta
20
6
11
3
15
.375
4 - 5 - 3

Atlanta, Florida, and Carolina suffered a total collapse since the all-star break.  Carolina has fallen out of a playoff spot into 9th place.  They need their all-star forwards Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner to rebound in order to turn things around.

Buffalo Sabres have charged from the bottom half to occupy the final playoff position.  However, both Toronto and New Jersey are right behind them with a faster charge.  Buffalo will play Toronto, New Jersey, Carolina, and New York Rangers one more time each when it plays its last 10 games of the season.  Buffalo faces New Jersey on 26th of March, Toronto on 29th of March, New York Rangers 30th of March, and Carolina on 3rd of April.

I continue to maintain, regardless of the outcomes, it should be exciting to watch and reveal what is in store next season for Toronto Maple Leafs fans.


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