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| Top Prospect Rookies Like Nazem Kadri Will Help Toronto's Playoff Drive |
Some pundits lament Toronto's 8 - 14 - 3 record through November and December and attribute it to the reason for not making the playoffs.
You might want to consider this a "symptom" of a problem instead of "the problem" advocated by pundits. It was one year too soon for Toronto in November and December. It becomes especially clear when comparing Toronto to Buffalo. Three things will jump out at you when you compare and contrast both teams. (1) the obvious benefit to Buffalo of having an established goaltender for the entire season; (2) the dramatic improvement in 24-year-old Drew Stafford's scoring production compared to last year when he was 23 years old; and (3) the emergence of top young prospects 21-year-old Tyler Ennis and 23-year-old Nathan Gerbe.
In short, when looking at Buffalo, you are seeing the team Toronto Maple Leafs can be next season. In addition, this year's Toronto Maple Leafs has kept equal pace with Buffalo since the all-star break.
To explore this in-depth, we review Toronto's performance since the all-star break and then contrast it with the playoff chase teams in their conference at the all-star break.
Please note the players' age when reviewing the statistics. It allows you to determine where a player is within their career. Peak performing years are typically ages 24 to 26 for forwards; 26 to 28 for defenceman; and 26 to 30 for goaltenders. Of course, there are exceptions to this rule of thumb. We list the player's age at the start of the season.
Toronto Maple Leafs Players Post All-Star Game 2010-11 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Age | Pos | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | S% |
Phil Kessel | 23 | RW | 27 | 10 | 13 | 23 | -2 | 5 | 10.9% |
Nikolai Kulemin | 24 | RW | 27 | 12 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 23.1% |
Mikhail Grabovski | 26 | C | 27 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 8.7% |
Dion Phaneuf | 25 | D | 27 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 9.0% |
Clarke MacArthur | 25 | LW | 27 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -2 | 0 | 10.2% |
Joffrey Lupul | 27 | LW | 22 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -8 | 1 | 10.5% |
Colby Armstrong | 27 | RW | 17 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 6.9% |
Tim Brent | 27 | C | 27 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 9.1% |
Tyler Bozak | 24 | C | 27 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -13 | 1 | 16.1% |
Luke Schenn | 20 | D | 27 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -3 | 0 | 4.1% |
Tomas Kaberle* | 32 | D | 9 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 7.1% |
Carl Gunnarsson | 23 | D | 24 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3.1% |
Joey Crabb | 27 | RW | 25 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 10.0% |
Darryl Boyce | 26 | C | 26 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 20.0% |
Kris Versteeg* | 24 | LW | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16.6% |
Nazem Kadri | 19 | C | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 18.2% |
Mike Brown | 25 | LW | 18 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5.3% |
Brett Lebda | 28 | D | 19 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 5.6% |
Keith Aulie | 21 | D | 22 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10.0% |
Jay Rosehill | 25 | LW | 15 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12.5% |
Francois Beauchemin* | 30 | D | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12.5% |
Fredrick Sjostrom | 27 | LW | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.0% |
Mike Komisarek | 28 | D | 24 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 0.0% |
Christian Hanson | 24 | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
Matt Lashoff | 24 | D | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
From the statistics, we see solid scoring results from Phil Kessel, Nikolai Kulemin, Mikhail Grabovski, and Dion Phaneuf. Clarke MacArthur, Joffrey Lupul, and Colby Armstrong also provided adequate scoring production while Nazem Kadri shows signs of delivering on his future promise.
Dion Phaneuf's results provide the most optimism for Leafs fans since it suggest he has returned to his Norris Trophy candidate form. The 9th overall draft pick from the 2003 Entry Draft leads Toronto in scoring during March with 4 goals and 7 assists in 13 games played. He is second in scoring for defenceman since the all-star break and two points shy of the leader.
Note the results from Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin. Although Grabovski's scoring pace has slowed down, it remains excellent for a second line centre. This is especially so for his power play goal scoring. Nikolai Kulemin is the team's top goal scorer since the all-star break and gives you a real reason to believe he will be a dependable 30-goal scorer. However, he must increase his power-play goal scoring to have greater upside.
23-year-old Phil Kessel leads the team in scoring. Yet, most fans believe there is more he can deliver. Some of the pundits suggest his personality and character is responsible for this shortfall. Before embracing this opinion, you should consider the role his age plays in falling short of expectations.
To illustrate the point, consider Nikolai Kulemin. Last season, at age 23, Nikolai Kulemin scored 16 goals and 20 assists in 78 games. This season, at age 24, he has scored 28 goals and 26 assists in 76 games played to date. You can attribute Kulemin's dramatic improvement more so to turning age 24 versus "character and personality issues" normally suggested by the punditry.
Never the less, you should note the improvement in Kessel's power play scoring and assists. In addition, to contributing to his line-mates scoring, 5th overall draft pick in 2006 Entry Draft is involved in Kulemin's and Phaneuf's scoring. In short, Kessel is clicking with the team's "hot hands". His power play goal production suggests he can get 15 power play goals next season, which will be important to go well above the 30-goal plateau.
The criticism Kessel has endured from the punditry during the season deserves closer examination. By season's end, we will have a blog post, "An Honest Conversation about Phil Kessel", fully exploring it.
Nazem Kadri has started to produce after his last NHL call-up. You can characterize the 7th overall draft pick from 2009 Entry Draft as the missing ingredient to Toronto making the playoffs. In fact, he might be at the head of a parade of young high potential players (Joe Colborne 16th 2008 and Jake Gardiner 17th 2008) graduating to the Maple Leafs with regular ice time.
Tyler Bozak has disappointing scoring results. Even when presented in the best light, his 4 goals and 3 assists in the last 16 games played appear no better than adequate. He has the worst +/- on the team.
At what point, does the team consider it "addition by subtraction" by removing him from the top six forwards. This topic also deserves further exploration in a future blog post "What to Do with Tyler Bozak?". Don't be surprised to see Ron Wilson cycle Nazem Kadri and Tyler Bozak with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul to determine which centre has the best chemistry on this line.
Dion Phaneuf's results provide the most optimism for Leafs fans since it suggest he has returned to his Norris Trophy candidate form. The 9th overall draft pick from the 2003 Entry Draft leads Toronto in scoring during March with 4 goals and 7 assists in 13 games played. He is second in scoring for defenceman since the all-star break and two points shy of the leader.
Note the results from Mikhail Grabovski and Nikolai Kulemin. Although Grabovski's scoring pace has slowed down, it remains excellent for a second line centre. This is especially so for his power play goal scoring. Nikolai Kulemin is the team's top goal scorer since the all-star break and gives you a real reason to believe he will be a dependable 30-goal scorer. However, he must increase his power-play goal scoring to have greater upside.
23-year-old Phil Kessel leads the team in scoring. Yet, most fans believe there is more he can deliver. Some of the pundits suggest his personality and character is responsible for this shortfall. Before embracing this opinion, you should consider the role his age plays in falling short of expectations.
To illustrate the point, consider Nikolai Kulemin. Last season, at age 23, Nikolai Kulemin scored 16 goals and 20 assists in 78 games. This season, at age 24, he has scored 28 goals and 26 assists in 76 games played to date. You can attribute Kulemin's dramatic improvement more so to turning age 24 versus "character and personality issues" normally suggested by the punditry.
Never the less, you should note the improvement in Kessel's power play scoring and assists. In addition, to contributing to his line-mates scoring, 5th overall draft pick in 2006 Entry Draft is involved in Kulemin's and Phaneuf's scoring. In short, Kessel is clicking with the team's "hot hands". His power play goal production suggests he can get 15 power play goals next season, which will be important to go well above the 30-goal plateau.
The criticism Kessel has endured from the punditry during the season deserves closer examination. By season's end, we will have a blog post, "An Honest Conversation about Phil Kessel", fully exploring it.
Nazem Kadri has started to produce after his last NHL call-up. You can characterize the 7th overall draft pick from 2009 Entry Draft as the missing ingredient to Toronto making the playoffs. In fact, he might be at the head of a parade of young high potential players (Joe Colborne 16th 2008 and Jake Gardiner 17th 2008) graduating to the Maple Leafs with regular ice time.
Tyler Bozak has disappointing scoring results. Even when presented in the best light, his 4 goals and 3 assists in the last 16 games played appear no better than adequate. He has the worst +/- on the team.
At what point, does the team consider it "addition by subtraction" by removing him from the top six forwards. This topic also deserves further exploration in a future blog post "What to Do with Tyler Bozak?". Don't be surprised to see Ron Wilson cycle Nazem Kadri and Tyler Bozak with Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul to determine which centre has the best chemistry on this line.
Toronto Maple Leafs Goalies Post All-Star Game 2010-11 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goalie | Age | GP | W | L | T | GA Avg | SO | Save Pct | |
James Reimer | 22 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2.63 | 3 | .919 | |
J-S Giguere | 33 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3.19 | 0 | .906 | |
James Reimer's performance has been in the same neighbourhood as the NHL's top goalies. He is the real deal. What Reimer has done goes far beyond Jonus Gustavsson's seven game winning streak in March of last year. We will explore this in a blog post within the next month "Another Way of Looking at Leafs Goalies Reimer & Gustavsson".
To give proper perspective to the production of the Toronto players, we present the statistics of the top players from the Eastern Conference playoff "chase" teams: New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, Atlanta Thrashers, and Florida Panthers. These teams, other than New Jersey and Toronto, were in playoff contention at the all-star break.
To give proper perspective to the production of the Toronto players, we present the statistics of the top players from the Eastern Conference playoff "chase" teams: New York Rangers, Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, Atlanta Thrashers, and Florida Panthers. These teams, other than New Jersey and Toronto, were in playoff contention at the all-star break.
Eastern Conference Playoff Race Scoring Post All-Star Game 2010-11 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Age | Team | GP | G | A | Pts | +/- | PPG | S% |
Ryan Callahan | 25 | Rangers | 24 | 13 | 11 | 24 | -3 | 7 | 16.9% |
Ilya Kovalchuk | 27 | New Jersey | 26 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 15.7% |
Phil Kessel | 23 | Toronto | 27 | 10 | 14 | 23 | -2 | 5 | 10.9% |
Thomas Vanek | 26 | Buffalo | 25 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 11 | 1 | 11.2% |
Drew Stafford | 24 | Buffalo | 24 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 20.6% |
Nikolai Kulemin | 24 | Toronto | 27 | 12 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 23.1% |
Erik Cole | 31 | Carolina | 25 | 10 | 10 | 20 | -4 | 1 | 15.2% |
Mikhail Grabovski | 26 | Toronto | 27 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 8.7% |
Tyler Ennis | 21 | Buffalo | 26 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 10.4% |
Dion Phaneuf | 25 | Toronto | 27 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 9.0% |
As shown in the list, both Toronto and Buffalo dominated in goal scoring while New Jersey, Carolina, and New York Rangers rode the backs of one skater. Atlanta and Florida simply stopped scoring. Their best scorers, Andrew Ladd and Stephen Weiss were just short of the top 10 scorers. Toronto fans, please note Mikhail Grabovski's +/- being one of the best amongst the top scorers.
Although pundits criticize Toronto's power play during its playoff drive, it scored 14 power play goals since the all-star break compared to New York Rangers - 18, Buffalo - 14, New Jersey - 10, and Carolina - 8. Kessel, Phaneuf, and Grabovski scored 11 of the 14 power play goals.
Toronto fans should take notice of two achievements by Buffalo players: (1) 21-year-old rookie Tyler Ennis drafted 26th in 2008 Entry Draft, made it into the top ten by scoring 6 goals and 6 assists in 14 games played in March. The young top prospect had a breakout month to lead Buffalo to victories and become a top Calder Trophy candidate. (2) 24-year-old Drew Stafford drafted 13th overall in 2004 Entry Draft improved dramatically this year by scoring 28 goals and 17 assists in 58 games played to date compared to 14 goals and 20 assists in 71 games played last season as a 23-year-old.
In short, Buffalo's scoring success can be a harbinger of what is to come next season from Toronto's top scorers and prospects.
Although pundits criticize Toronto's power play during its playoff drive, it scored 14 power play goals since the all-star break compared to New York Rangers - 18, Buffalo - 14, New Jersey - 10, and Carolina - 8. Kessel, Phaneuf, and Grabovski scored 11 of the 14 power play goals.
Toronto fans should take notice of two achievements by Buffalo players: (1) 21-year-old rookie Tyler Ennis drafted 26th in 2008 Entry Draft, made it into the top ten by scoring 6 goals and 6 assists in 14 games played in March. The young top prospect had a breakout month to lead Buffalo to victories and become a top Calder Trophy candidate. (2) 24-year-old Drew Stafford drafted 13th overall in 2004 Entry Draft improved dramatically this year by scoring 28 goals and 17 assists in 58 games played to date compared to 14 goals and 20 assists in 71 games played last season as a 23-year-old.
In short, Buffalo's scoring success can be a harbinger of what is to come next season from Toronto's top scorers and prospects.
East Division Playoff Race Goalies Post All-Star Game 2010-11 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goalie | Age | Team | GP | W | L | T | GA Avg | SO | Save Pct | |
Johan Hedberg | 37 | New Jersey | 10 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1.43 | 2 | .943 | |
Martin Brodeur | 38 | New Jersey | 17 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1.56 | 2 | .927 | |
Henrik Lundqvist | 28 | Rangers | 22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2.15 | 4 | .922 | |
Ryan Miller | 30 | Buffalo | 23 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2.42 | 2 | .921 | |
Cam Ward | 26 | Carolina | 24 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 2.53 | 1 | .921 | |
James Reimer | 22 | Toronto | 23 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2.63 | 3 | .919 | |
Tomas Vokoun | 34 | Florida | 19 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 2.75 | 0 | .916 | |
Ondrej Pavelec | 23 | Atlanta | 15 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 3.50 | 0 | .878 | |
As stated in past posts, James Reimer has matched his counterparts in games played and wins while maintaining a strong save percentage. This level of goaltending is an absolute must for Toronto to compete for the playoffs when playing against Carey Price, Tim Thomas, Tuukka Rask, Ryan Miller, Henrik Lundqvist, Cam Ward, and Martin Brodeur. These are many of the best goalies in the NHL and the world. Most of them represent their respective countries in international hockey.
The conventional thinking is Toronto will be a much better when it receives this type of goaltending for an entire season.
The conventional thinking is Toronto will be a much better when it receives this type of goaltending for an entire season.
Eastern Division Playoff "Chase" Teams Post All-Star Break Record | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | GP | Wins | Losses | OT/SO | Points | Win Pct | vs Chase Teams |
New Jersey | 26 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 38 | .730 | 9 - 1 - 1 |
Buffalo | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 34 | .653 | 7 - 3 - 1 |
Toronto | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 35 | .648 | 7 - 1 - 2 |
Rangers | 24 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 26 | .541 | 2 - 4 - 0 |
Carolina | 25 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 24 | .480 | 5 - 4 - 4 |
Atlanta | 23 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 19 | .413 | 4 - 5 - 3 |
Florida | 25 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 19 | .380 | 3 - 4 - 3 |
At the all-star break, the pundits proclaimed Toronto must win two out of every three games plus the teams ahead of them must collapse in order for them to have a chance of reaching the playoffs. After 27 games played, Toronto is one point short of the .666 winning percentage; Atlanta and Florida have collapsed; and Carolina and Rangers recovered from a free-fall. But, it is Buffalo's performance that has dashed Toronto's playoff hopes. Buffalo has played equally well down the playoff stretch and show no signs of letting up. There will have to be a total collapse in their remaining seven games of the season for them to fail.
Fortunately, for Toronto Maple Leafs fans, their team is setup for next season to mirror Buffalo's performance. Solid goaltending, a strong core of scorers, and emerging top prospects help any team make the playoffs. It certainly served Brian Burke well when he managed Anaheim Ducks and relied on young rookies Ryan Getzlaf (age 20), Corey Perry (age 20), Joffrey Lupul (age 22), and Dustin Penner (age 23) for his first playoff run with the team. The current Toronto team seems to be setup in similar fashion for next season. It should be fun to watch!
Fortunately, for Toronto Maple Leafs fans, their team is setup for next season to mirror Buffalo's performance. Solid goaltending, a strong core of scorers, and emerging top prospects help any team make the playoffs. It certainly served Brian Burke well when he managed Anaheim Ducks and relied on young rookies Ryan Getzlaf (age 20), Corey Perry (age 20), Joffrey Lupul (age 22), and Dustin Penner (age 23) for his first playoff run with the team. The current Toronto team seems to be setup in similar fashion for next season. It should be fun to watch!
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